Pending home sales drop to the lowest level on record in January

Oopsie. Gonna see more Florida realtors taking on second jobs.
Lots of listings in my area have been on the market 6 months or longer.

 

Markets go up, markets go down. Professional Realtors will do just fine. Part timers not so much.

 

Lol, been hearing the bubble is gonna pop for years. Everything just keeps getting more expensive, even with mtg rates still climbing.

 

agree. It is exceedingly rare for housing to crater despite what we saw in 2008/9....prices tend to just flatten out.

 

Trump winning.

 

I don't see a crash in housing. Most are either locked into low rates or own there home outright.

 

Ps not to spoil it but that character dies. So pretty fitting post.

 

April home sales dropped to the slowest pace for that month since 2009

• Home sales in April fell, as consumers faced high house prices and growing concern over the economy and employment.
• “Home sales have been at 75% of normal or pre-pandemic activity for the past three years, even with seven million jobs added to the economy,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.
• The median price of an existing home sold in April was $414,000, an increase of just 1.8% year over year.

 

what input costs are going to fall

land
materials
labor

replacement or new build costs are not going to drop

 

I don’t see the news here. This has been a trend for as long as I can remember. Is this different than in the past? If so how?

 

April new home sales rose 10.9% month over month. It bested the consensus estimate by over 50k.

 

You are relying on seasonality for this?

 

He's talking about new home sales, not previously owned homes. But he didn't present a link so you know there's more to the story. Lots of incentives and price reductions:

https://www.morningstar.com/news/ma...pushing-sales-to-highest-level-in-three-years

Big picture: The new-home market is faring relatively better than the resale sector. Both are dealing with elevated levels of supply, but builders have been able to keep buyers interested.

Incentives are a key reason why builders can keep demand alive. They're offering more price cuts and other perks to keep buyers interested. In May, 34% of builders cut home prices, which was the highest share since December 2023, according to the National Association of Home Builders. The average price reduction was 5%.

But as consumers grow increasingly worried about the economy, it's unclear if builders can maintain this momentum

Looking ahead: "It's unlikely that home builders will be able to carry this momentum into the summer. We still see the broader housing market mired in a lower gear over 2025 until mortgage rates fall enough to drive a more sustainable boost in sales activity," Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide Financial, said in a note to clients.

 

No angle to my post other than to help @citygator who, as usual, only posts the parts of data that fit his narrative.

 

Oh, yes I missed the new. Sorry about that. It should also be noted that the new housing market is an order of magnitude less than the existing home market.

 

I’m not relying on anything. I was simply posting some of the info that was left out of the original post.