OPEC ramps production; prices expected to crash

and the gas station I usually go to now selling at $2.99. Was at $2.85 on saturday

 

Completely anecdotal, but during one of the hurricanes I had to fill up at a Rally and I thought my car was toast. Massive knock in engine, total lack of HP, etc. Was literally thinking about trading in for a new one, but filled up later that week at a WaWa and it was like I had a new car. Never - outside of emergencies - get gas anywhere else.

 

I can’t remember the last time I bought gas. On a road trip in 2023?

 

Yep...keep up with that drill baby drill....lets ramp that production up and shoot for oil to drop to $45 a barrel so our big beautiful country can have that $1.99 a gallon gas no one can currently find but Orange Jesus claims exists. Im sure the US producers will love to drill baby drill with a $-10 per barrel profit. Of course being anti electric vehicle and going to gasoline powered laundry machines and hair dryers could increase demand to keep Chevron happy. This is truly what happens when the barking dog catches the car and has no clue of what to do when he does.

 

It’s going to be hilarious if peak US oil production happened under Biden.

 

meanwhile, chevron about to lose its license to export the oil that the US refiners rely upon to make their chemistry work.

the man is clueless that it would take billions and years to change the refineries to process just USA oil

those refineries were all set up to handle all the venezuelan and canadian sour crude and have been tweaked to blend in some US sweet but can't run on us sweet alone

Chevron CEO warns against company's possible departure from Venezuela

Venezuela Pleads for China to Buy Oil as Trump Kicks Chevron (CVX) Out - Bloomberg


What’s the difference between heavy and light crude oils? And why do American refineries need both? | American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers

Refineries run on a mix of crude oils in order to run efficiently and maximize outputs. Nearly 70% of U.S. refining capacity runs most efficiently with heavier crude. That is why 90% of crude oil imports into the United States are heavier than U.S.-produced shale crude.

Long before the U.S. shale boom, when global production of light sweet crude oil was declining, we made significant investments in our refineries to process heavier, high-sulfur crude oils that were more widely available in the global market. These investments were made to ensure U.S. refineries would have access to the feedstocks needed to produce gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Heavier crude is now an essential feedstock for many U.S. refineries. Substituting it for U.S. light sweet crude oil would make these facilities less efficient and competitive, leading to a decline in fuel production and higher costs for consumers.

The ability to import AND export crude oil and refined products is good for consumers AND safeguards U.S. energy security.

 

On one hand Trump wants US refineries to process only US produced light sweet crude while on the other hand he wants to restart construction of the Keystone XL pipeline which was intended to transport heavy Canadian crude from Alberta. It also raises the question of whether Canada would even be interested in using the pipeline or that US refiners would be interesting in purchasing Canadian crude since Trump has also proposed a 25% tariff on products from Canada including crude.

 

that canadian oil is headed west. we are going to have to offset venezuelan oil with middle eastern oil to keep the refineries running. he likely has no concept that oil can actually be different

 

Agree. The government of Alberta actually gave up on the pipeline four years ago. The only reason Trump proposed restarting it was probably because Biden cancelled it. Like a number of Trump's executive orders he is motivated as much by a desire to cancel Biden's EOs as he is by the actual substance of his own EOs.

 

agree. That’s probably the most effective “sanction” Trump could enact - influencing a lower price of oil.

 

It’s not like they haven’t done this before.
Regardless of who is in the WH.

If I’m not mistaken Trump got criticized for getting OPEC to cut production during covid to effectively save the US Shale industry.

OPEC has had issue with the + countries just pumping out oil and they haven’t liked it in the past.

 

Curious what the break even for Canadian shale is.
I think US shale is about $60/ barrel.

Che gator is up on this

 

Oil futures traded *negative* during the pandemic (and going long energy at that time might have been the most no-brainer trade in the history of mankind).

With that level market disruption not sure anyone gets credit for cut production. I mean… come on lol.

 

Most Canadian oil is produced from tar sands in Alberta not extracted from shale like the majority of US oil. Following are the breakeven costs. Although the data is from 2022 it's probably still the same.

Breakeven costs for Canadian oil sands sector producing assets have fallen from $59.30 US Brent per barrel in 2015 to $33.97 US Brent per barrel in 2022 a decline of $25.33 US Brent per barrel, or nearly 43 per cent (see Figure 4).

Breakeven costs for Canadian oil sands sector under development assets have fallen from $73.96 US Brent per barrel in 2015 to $35.74 US Brent per barrel in 2022, a decline of $38.22 US Brent per barrel, or nearly 52 per cent (see Figure 4).​

Canadian upstream oil sector supply costs continue to decline - Canadian Energy Centre

 

You can look around here. Some posters criticized Trump for pressing Saudi for cutting.
The smart people realized it had to be done.

 

Cutting was the only possibility during COVID. There was so much oil in the market relative to demand even storage was a concern (hence negative oil prices).

Trump was calling for the Saudi’s to increase production just 1-2 months ago. His own tariffs have caused oil prices to decline over economic uncertainty, some have compared cargo shipping and the ports as COVID-like. I’m not even sure of Trumps stance on oil right now, but if it goes down further it would not be surprising to see them flip-flop and start calling for cuts. Anything in the $40’s and American oil production goes out of business (my understanding is a bunch of stuff goes underwater once you get under $60).

 

Totally agree with your statement about the current situation.
When it was $80/bbl it “almost “ made sense for cutting production.
The threat of tariffs has caused a predictable decline in expected demand and thus the drop in futures.