No big deal?... Lose to a team with 106 RPI at home... For now we've dropped to 16 RPI. 13 SEC wins absolutely necessary now for post-season but there was an outside chance that 15 or 16 SEC wins could get us a Regional hosting. Every loss down the stretch important, especially at home against an very average team...that clearly wanted to win more than our guys.
Thanks for the correction. I see that now. Dang- that is far a worse drop than I expected. Sleep walk to a loss in your home ballpark and there you have it. All the hard work of clawing your way back into the conversation melting a bit with this lackluster loss.
51 rpi point loss. USF jumped to a Q3(home) at least for now. which helps sos a little. Upcoming RPI Impact Games for Florida Baseball | WarrenNolan.com
Time to drop Cyr down in order. If we had Jones and Kurland in lineup, Cyr wouldn't be playing. He's a defensive liability in LF and can't hit a curveball. Frankly he's been somewhat of a disappointment based on what he was ranked in the portal.
RPI cares whom you play, where you play, and how much you win. It mostly doesn't care whom you beat (it actually slightly prefers you beat teams who play fewer games... so a midweek vs. some team who couldn't fill their schedule counts more than an SEC home win in RPI). If Arkansas and USF have both played 58 at tournament selection time, this loss totally cancels out the series win vs. Arkansas. OTOH, that's why the NCAAT selection method amounts to "RPI, which conference, conference record... and then some minor stuff". Conference record is a first estimate of "whom did you beat?" for multi-bid conferences.
Not sure if Im interpreting this right..but.. a USF win would of been +5 rpi points the Ark wins were +47 each if I recall . and lost 25 pts or so each loss. So USF loss cancelled out 1 Ark win roughly. So still +20-25 pts on the splitting other 2 v Ark So it most certainly cares who you beat or lose to Either way, I just posting that link so could track where UF was in RPI pts standing. Im fairly confident after 30 years I know how rpi works.. Higher opp RPI is the more points youll receive per win.
Assuming every team plays the same amount of games an: A USF loss + 2 Ark wins + 1 Ark loss = a USF win + 1 Ark Win + 2 Ark loss. WarrenNolan only shows the effect of one game -- did you win or lose? Whom were you playing? And where was it?
Ark has played 49 USF has played 46. Never seen or heard amount of games as any factor,, but ok.. obviously if a 10+ game or so discrepency , there would be a factor,, but we all play roughly 56 Warens just updates RPI live per game,, theres only 1 RPI formula regardless which outlet. Using your formula but w/ points gained/loss.. usf loss(-51) + 2 ark wins(95 roughly) + ark loss(-25 roughly) = +19 usf win(+5) + ark win(47) + 2 ark losses(-50) = +2
RPI adjusts for every game. When the Gators beat Arky the first game, RPI's estimate of the Gators got better and its estimate of Arky got worse. And there were few-percent effects from each team both of those teams had played. After Saturday, that reversed. Instead of +19/+2, it'd be within 1 or 2 of +10/+11.
Sure,, and you still gained more points from Ark series than you lost in USF loss. not as much as you should have, I agree Fri & Sun games were w/ in 5 rpi points for uf.. If fri was 47pt,,Sun was at least 40..Ark didnt drop much from the Sat loss IMo rpi rewards to much for road wins and penalizes to much for home losses. In a perfect RPI world all games at nuetral sites. All in all, the usf loss will have little to no factor on selection day...imo
