Projected Field - Latest: BA (04/30/2025)

UF is down to sec wins.. 2 or 3 more comfortably in. 4+ more, hosting. (especialy if that equals 2 more series wins) Only issue I could see is a log jam of sec teams,,but I like your chances in that scenario too.

Ive yet to figure out the ELO formula. Its definitely overall record heavy, and little if any conferece record influence..other than that..no idea

 

Not sure how many B10 gets this year.. but random/funny stat. The 4 new west teams are 64-32 in b10, 12 of those losses to each other.
iowa 21-6 , but just played first west coast team & lost 2/3 at Wash. End year hosting Ducks after 3 v Beavs this week

Iowa also lost 3/4 vs Wazzu(17-29) early season

 

Elo ratings are power rating algorithms, largely influenced by margin of victory (or loss). They are the best predictors of future outcomes, so if we are #6, that’s a good sign.

 

So my definition of a perfect outcome 1-0 is not helping me I guess..lol

and Norteastern at 11 seems a bit silly, but 37-9.. like farirfield #1 rpi that year they went 54-2 or w/ever it was I guess

Obv no/little SOS factor, also seems silly

 

saw a new projection that has us as the 2nd seed in the Clemson regional

 

remember which outlet?

Heres on3 released today , UF 2 seed in tally. vs UConn..eek tough 3

Field of 64 Projections: Chaotic week shifts NCAA Tournament picture, strengthens bubble - On3

 

ELO is not a margin of victory system, since it comes from chess ratings and there is no margin of victory in chess. It does weight SOS fairly strongly and has a recency bias.

The Massey composite (Massey Ratings - College Baseball Rankings) tabulates all the computer and human polls. BA, D1B, NCB, PG, and USA are the usual big five human polls. ELO, RPI, and MB are score-blind. All others include margin of victory or some other metric of the score. The difference between MAS and MB gives an idea of how big the score effect might be in other polls; Gators are 17 in Massey and only 20 in Massey BCS, which makes sense given 22-3 and all the run rule games.

Among the other polls, PBR retains appreciable weight on pre-season rankings all the way through the CWS, while MOR (Moore) has the strongest recency bias and is the most common outlier among the computer polls. For example: the most updated Moore ranking isn't on the composite. Instead, you can find it here, COLLEGE BASEBALL POWER RATINGS & RANKINGS, and it rates the Gators #2 in the country compared to Texas #16 and Oregon State #38.

 

Whoever makes that projection doesn't know much about the NCAA allocates non-seeded teams. The cliche is "a flight is a flight". They don't try to minimize total travel distance, but the number of planes they need to charter. No way Bethune-Cookman is flown out to Texas and Bryant (from RI) is flown to Tally.

 

Not arguing . but how does Neasten w/ sos 186 end up 11th? Every time I think I see a trend in ELO rankings theres and outlier than defuses it lol.. Not any diffrerent than rpi really, but I understand why in rpi usually

Also heard commitee using KPI last couple yyears.. hers that one
Faktor

 

yep, B Cook wont get on a plane ..at most a bus ride to aub or Athens

I doubt theyput much thought in the 4 seeds..lol

* I just looked BC 12 regionals , have left state once, Oxford. 5 in Tally

 

Per Northeastern Baseball Schedule Scores & Stats | WarrenNolan.com, they are 25-1 in their last 26. That's the recency bias. ELO tends to overrate, especially relative to RPI, "Quad 3" wins, where they are 14-1 by ELO rankings.

 

There are ELO purist?? (not the band) lol & thought I was weird being rpi junky. I still value best team over full season(#1 rpi) over post season winner(3-4 weeks).. also told thats weird

and yeah no factor to commitee, why i give it a couple peeks a week, smh, and move on

 

Red Foxes,,great mascot

N-east teams getting on a plane regardless.

 

No , but fairly cetain committee does,, at least when comes to deciding between "equals' from same conf.

Ive always thought margin of victory is dumbest metric ever in any sport, just penalizing/rewarding game styles IMO.. And still think run rule should only be for game 3s & midweek. Running through a bull pen, or not is kind of important in a series. but ...tv