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Job creation crashes, falling WAAAAAY more than expected

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by WarDamnGator, Apr 30, 2025 at 8:26 AM.

  1. Apr 30, 2025 at 8:26 AM #1
    WarDamnGator

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  2. Apr 30, 2025 at 8:38 AM #2
    citygator

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    Yup. Really bad.

    ADP Shows Job Gains Stalling. Fed Inflation Gauge, GDP Data On Tap. (Live Coverage) | Investor's Business Daily

    ADP Jobs Report
    Payroll processor ADP showed private employers added just 62,000 jobs last month vs. forecasts of 125,000 and down from a revised 147,000 in March.

    On Friday, economists expect the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report to show 130,000 new jobs, including 125,000 in the private sector. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.2%.
     
  3. Apr 30, 2025 at 8:40 AM #3
    ETGator

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    This is the private ADP report. The BLS' Non-Farm Payroll Report will be released Friday at 8:30 AM. Looking at and citing just one month can be misleading.
     
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  4. Apr 30, 2025 at 8:56 AM #4
    citygator

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    Im sure it will be great. ;)
     
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  5. Apr 30, 2025 at 9:00 AM #5
    G8tas

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    Pass me some of that hopium
     
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  6. Apr 30, 2025 at 9:00 AM #6
    WarDamnGator

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    Bad news this morning followed by worse new on GDP. If Trump doesn't pull his head of his ass, we are heading towards recession and stagflation. Trump will be Carter 2.0. Enjoy your hardship and pain.
     
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  7. Apr 30, 2025 at 11:13 AM #7
    BLING

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    Because now we don’t trust private figures but instead trust government figures??? Really???

    I know these two don’t always line up, normally what you say would be correct, but this “wait for govt data” seems especially crazy right now.
     
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  8. Apr 30, 2025 at 11:40 AM #8
    duchen

    duchen VIP Member

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    Thats much better than being Hoover 2.0!
     
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  9. Apr 30, 2025 at 1:06 PM #9
    VAg8r1

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    Although they occasionally diverge, the ADP report usually tracks the BLS report. My guess is that if there is a significant divergence the BLS report will be even more negative than the ADP report since it all also take into account the federal government jobs eliminated by DOGE not just the private sector payrolls reflected in the ADP report..
     
  10. Apr 30, 2025 at 1:08 PM #10
    VAg8r1

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    The difference is that Carter had the misfortune of being the president when the stagflation of 1979-1980 occurred. Trump's coming stagflation is almost entirely the result of the incumbent president's tariff policies.
     
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  11. May 1, 2025 at 12:02 AM #11
    l_boy

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    I am sure with the doge driven surge in public sector hiring the composite number will be much better. Also just because GDP dropped and private payrolls dropped is no reason to think total employment dropped……..

    o_O
     
  12. May 1, 2025 at 3:33 AM #12
    G8trGr8t

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  13. May 1, 2025 at 10:38 PM #13
    chemgator

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    Trump will be much worse than Carter. Carter inherited an economy that had spent a (not so) small fortune over the previous decade fighting the Vietnam War and was dealing with much greater civil rights issues and racial strife than what we have today. Trump basically created this disaster all by himself. Trump will probably be Hoover 2.0.
     
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