Quarterly Core PCE increases to 3.5%. Fed isn't going to cut rates with that figure even with the corresponding drop in GDP. Triple whammy on the economy this morning. Should be an interesting opening to the markets. Inflation Speeds Up, Quarterly Data Show
Yeah, the markets keep tanking (and our collective savings along with it) BUT... Trump really gave it to ABC News in that interview. #winning
An indication that Trump's strategy of Making America Great Again is working assuming that he thinks that America was great when we were experiencing the stagflation of the 1970s.
Triple Whammy... Inflation grows.... Jobs shrink.... GDP goes negative. Lets give Trump time to destroy prosperity before we criticize. Its only been 101 days.
Genius award time... I was predicting stagflation over a year and a half ago, 5 months before I started posting here. And when I got here:
Inflation is a monetary phenomenon (M2) that lags money supply movements by roughly 14-23 months. Trump should be held somewhat responsible for inflation that occurs starting in late 2026 if he is advocating for the Fed to loosen money/lower interest rates that inflate the currency more than what is desirable. Just about any attempt by MAGA to reduce gov't spending will be opposed by Democrats Massive government spending (local + state + federal) as a percent of national income has decreased the ability of the US economy to grow. Dems and Pubs are both responsible (Dems more than Pubs). In 1910 total gov't spending was 12% of national income. Today 47-48% last I checked. That's a problem. It's about 7% higher than when Reagan left office. 3% higher than when Reagan entered office.
It takes an immediate outside influence to produce stagflation this quickly after very previous substantial growth. . Like a pandemic or widespread disaster. In this case, it was created by economic policy.
Gotta give Trump credit for slowing down the economy. The Fed tried for years and couldn’t slow down Sleepy Joe’s juggernaut. Trump did it in less than 3 months.
Your prediction turned out to be accurate but like @okeechobee's post from last August predicting a recession and a stock market crash it took the election of Donald Trump to actually make it happen.
The economic growth during the latter parts of the last administration was fake as I said at the time. Democrats cheered the fake economy and then did a 180 on Jan 21, 2025. Very predictable. I said this would happen in 2024. GDP and GDI are supposed to track fairly closely. For many months there has been a divergence with GDP numbers outperforming GDI. The Philly Fed believes the GDI numbers are more reliable. This article is from Mike Sherlock, June 29, 2023: Largest Discrepancy Between GDP and GDI in 20 Years The BEA released its final estimate of first-quarter 2023 GDP. The GDP vs GDI discrepancy is one of the largest ever. Real GDP, Real Final Sales, and Real GDI data from BEA, chart by Mish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI) are two measures of the same thing. They are supposed to match, and will over time, with revisions in at least one of the measures. Largest Discrepancy Between GDP and GDI in 20 Years – MishTalk
The very first credible prediction of recession came from the Atlanta Fed 1 month after Trump began talking tariffs. Every other prediction was dead wrong. Biden’s economy roared into 2025 at a blistering pace only to be incompenced (new verb) into recession.
Yeah, your article is from early 2023. In 2024, GDI grew faster than GDP. So tell us again about how that proves a lack of growth in 2024.
The article I posted was from June 29, 2023. Here's an article by the same author exactly 14 months later on August 29, 2024. You can see the divergence in GDP and GDI in the graph. If I'm missing something let me know (you're the economist). The Gap Between Real GDP and GDI Increases to New Record $616 Billion August 29, 2024 The BEA revised GDP from 2.8% to 3.0%. GDI is much more believable at 1.3% with negative revisions coming. Data from the BEA, chart by Mish GDP vs GDI GDP and GDI are two measures of the same thing. GDI counts what all participants in the economy make, including wages, rental income, and corporate profits. GDP measures the value of the goods and services that the economy produces. Real means inflation-adjusted. The gap between GDP and GDI is the biggest on record... Believe GDI GDI is a more accurate albeit less timely measure of the economy. And given the huge negative revisions in jobs (thus wages), it is by far the more reasonable estimate of the economy. The Gap Between Real GDP and GDI Increases to New Record $616 Billion – MishTalk
Here is the data from the actual source. Gross Domestic Income | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Annual Real GDI change in 2024 was 3.0% compared to Real GDP change in 2024, which was 2.8%. In economic data, timeliness and accuracy matter. BTW, here is the updated annual data: Real gross domestic income | FRED | St. Louis Fed
