Breaking: Terrible GDP report just dropped… worst since Covid

It doesn't. Recessions are declared looking across a variety of metrics by NBER. They didn't declare one then because the decline was primarily due to import increases as supply chains reconnected post-Covid, which is actually a sign of economic strength, not weakness, and due to a massive pull back in government spending as Covid support was cut. This was buoyed by the beginning of a massive two year labor shortage, leading to large scale increases in wages and consumption. In contrast, a recession was declared during COVID despite the lack of 2 quarters of decline in GDP, because one quarter had such a substantial decline that the huge "gains" the following quarter left an economy far smaller than it had been at the beginning of the period.

It is highly likely that we would see a recession declared with another quarter of negative GDP growth this time, due to the labor market not being as strong as it was in 2022.

 

Meh, who cares about the economy? I’m just glad to be celebrating Columbus Day once again.

 

I’m guessing layoffs at Commerce will be announced this morning

 

Let's see how Fox News is covering this. Below are their headlines on their website from today at 10:35am (and yes, I'm serious - this is the main headline). Kamala/Walz derangement syndrome in full effect.

 

Crap sources give crap information.

 

I'm ok with the US economy tanking as long as those penguins aren't still freeloading.

 

A WSJ comment today.

Headline April 30, 2035
King Barron, when confronted with more bad economic news as unemployment hits 20% and the US war with Denmark drags on, says to be patient. He says, “I blame Joe Biden.”

 

....

 

Yes, it is currently story number 9 on their website. And the headline doesn't even mention GDP or the decline. It is "New report sheds light on state of US economy amid Trump's tariff fight."

 

The buck stops .. uh … over there!

Trump decries 'Biden's Stock Market' after capping worst 100-day market performance in decades

 

find the silver lining..low inflation as nobody is buying anything and tariffs haven't hit the shelves yet?

MAGA will claim stagflation as a win...

every metric is bad

GDP Falls, ADP Jobs Data Is Soft. S&P 500 Cuts Loss On Tame Inflation (Live Coverage)

 

Stagflation was being predicted in 2023. Many of the Biden economic numbers were fake.

 

As a reminder, these metrics are calculated in exactly the same way now as they were in 2023 and 2024.

 

Gaslight.

 

I seem to recall a lot of downward revisions during the latter parts of the Biden years. In jobs for instance. Would gov't employees fudge job reports to help a elect a Democrat president?

As for GDP and GDI I'm not sure why they started to diverge in 2023. I do think the divergence should have made people less confident in the GDP numbers. Not saying GDP was deliberately falsified. My guess is the BEA still has the most reliable numbers (Milton Friedman thought so).

 

Turns out Trump was RIGHT!!! He was just one administration early on his prediction.

 

A pattern that has continued. It is about 2/3 down about 1/3 up right now. This has to do with the issues around Covid.

No.

As a reminder, the divergence reversed in 2024.

 

“And you could even say the next quarter is sort of Biden because it doesn’t just happen on a daily or an hourly basis,” he said during a Cabinet meeting at the White House.

 

https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-news/fox-spins-economic-contraction-under-trump-some-might-say-wasnt-big-drop-anticipated