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New York, New York

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by okeechobee, May 24, 2024.

  1. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    I think I’m probably the only one here who believes it’s actually possible for Trump to flip New York this November, but there are enough people in his campaign who apparently see it as worth taking a shot at. The Biden campaign has to be alarmed that Trump is receiving large, enthusiastic crowds in areas like the Bronx.

    My sense is the Trump campaign is seeing an opening with the Manhattan trial and think there is at least a 20% chance they can flip the state. Siena seems to be the main source of polling data coming out of New York. The last couple of polls have it Biden +9 and Biden +10. One might assume that’s a safe lead in a reliably blue state like New York. But mind you, those same Siena polls were showing Biden +22 over Trump in New York a year ago. There’s been a defined shift towards Trump in the Empire State. A 12% shift in a state with New York’s population is a pretty massive shift in terms of sheer number of voters who have apparently switched sides.

    None of this means Trump will win New York and if I had to place a bet on it, I’m putting my money on Biden winning the state. However, the Trump campaign is obviously seeing an opening. It could be a combination of factors. General apathy towards Biden. The assumption that Biden likely won’t campaign in New York because it’s considered a lock on the Dem side. And the fact that based on current polling, Trump really only needs to worry about three states: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And therefore Trump has the luxury of being able to take a gander in a state like New York. Perhaps they are attempting to force Biden to spend resources in New York. It could be a lot of things.

    Either way, when you see a shift that large in polling, you have to take notice. And then you see him hold a rally in the Bronx with many people of color in the audience. If he wins over minorities in NYC, Biden has a major problem on his hands.
     
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  2. Emmitto

    Emmitto VIP Member

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    Ha, the takeaway is that "many" POC were in a place that is 95% POC, not that a massive crowd of out-of-towners invaded a Bronx park.

    But R's should def spend a lot of resources on NY. Super smart. It's not as smart as the D's constantly pipe-dreaming themselves into a Texas money flush, but it is pretty close.
     
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  3. GatorNorth

    GatorNorth Premium Member Premium Member

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  4. G8tas

    G8tas GC Hall of Fame

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    I think it's pretty bad when you can't win your home state
     
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  5. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    lol. Video of the “Bronx” rally. Only Hispanic and African Americans were cops and merchandise vendors. o_O

    Crazy that people come to hear his ramblings from all over though.

     
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  6. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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  7. vaxcardinal

    vaxcardinal GC Hall of Fame

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    This seems like a thread typed up while watching FoxNews since this is the line they’ve been pushing for the past 2 days
     
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  8. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Overhead according to the local news. I took it off a social media post which is why it looks sus.

    5381FA5D-29E2-496A-B1B4-7C5784F4B9B9.jpeg
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2024
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  9. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    I don’t pay attention to Fox News.
     
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  10. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 GC Hall of Fame

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    You know everyone posting and :laughing: emoticon/emoji are nervous about the number of people and the diversity of the crowd in Trump Bronx rally.
     
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  11. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 GC Hall of Fame

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    These pics HOURS before the rally... This is what the MSM do. IT'S CALLED PROPAGANDA.

    FAKE NEWS!

    I saw the rally live and 35K people seems about right... and the Dems are not happy about that number of people and the diversity of said people.
     
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  12. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    Everyone forgets to vote except Staten Island
     
  13. G8tas

    G8tas GC Hall of Fame

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    You don't have to. They all parrot the same thing
     
  14. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator VIP Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  15. gatorchamps960608

    gatorchamps960608 GC Hall of Fame

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    Maybe you can use the same caterers from your Matt Bevins victory party for the Trump NY one.
     
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  16. Gator515151

    Gator515151 GC Hall of Fame

    Apr 4, 2007
    Not possible, by the time all the dead people votes and mail in ballots come in Biden will once again take New York.
     
  17. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    New York post was there. They used the same picture as I did. You have a better one??

    Trump’s rally in deep blue South Bronx drew crowd of 8,000 to 10,000: law enforcement sources


    Former President Donald Trump’s Bronx rally drew about 8,000 to 10,000 attendees, law enforcement sources told The Post on Friday.

    The Thursday night rally was held in Crotona Park, which had a permit allowance of 3,500 people. Thousands of Trump supporters were lined up by the security gates for hours hoping to catch a glimpse of the 45th president making his first New York City rally appearance since 2016.
     
  18. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Actually dead people are more likely to vote for Trump than Biden.
    Colorado man pleads guilty to casting missing wife's ballot
    Las Vegas man who voted twice using dead wife’s ballot pleads guilty, avoids jail time
    Pennsylvania Man admits to voter fraud in casting dead mother's ballot
    Woman avoids jail for voting dead mom's ballot in Arizona
     
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  19. mikemcd810

    mikemcd810 Premium Member

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    That's Trump on the stage in that screenshot.

     
  20. gatorchamps960608

    gatorchamps960608 GC Hall of Fame

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    3,500 max coming in from all over yet mostly white. The South Bronx is only 8% white and that crowd was easily 95% white.
     
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