Contemplation of a possible nucelar war

Mind blowing book. Her geopolitical scenarios may be a stretch but otherwise scary as hell

 

Having not read the book (it looks interesting; I will try to), the only thin-slice problem with the scenario I see is the "one missile ignites nuclear war" scenario. If we see one missile inbound, from anywhere in the world, we will just shoot it down and then deliberate how to respond. If we fail to shoot down that one missile (very unlikely, but let's just say), then we will probably wait to let it hit before making any decisions on how to respond. The missile might be a dud or it might not even be armed with a nuclear warhead. If the missile gets through, hits its target, and was nuclear, there is still a lot of time to deliberate how to respond, no need to go massive retaliation unless other missiles start to come inbound. The only scenario where I think we need to respond massively without a lot of discussion is when we see a full nuclear attack in progress from multiple sources (ICBMs, bombers, and submarines). In that case, you absolutely have to hit back before those weapons take out our ability to respond and exercise command and control of forces in the field.

 

I generally agree with you that we would wait before one hit (and confirming it was nuclear) before responding. Part of the reason I said that the "how we got here" wasn't clean.

Jeffrey Lewis had a far more plausible scenario in this book, with a limited exchange




In this book (Annie Jacobsen's), the DPRK eventually sent more. She states, and I agree (relying on Jeffrey Lewis), that our chances of taking down are far less likely than you suggest. In this book, four interception attempts on the first missile failed. That's consistent with my understanding, again relying on Jeffrey Lewis.

But then we retaliated against the DPRK over the ice, Russia misread that it was coming towards them and that there were more than we launched (at the DPRK), and so on.

 

This is also a great book

 

The digital version is only $6.99 right now, so I pulled the trigger

 

FWIW Garry Wills' Bomb Power is the best book on the politics of the bomb IMO

 

Bad metaphor, but you will enjoy the book, in a manner of speaking

 

We had to read that one this year in school. As an Army man, nuclear war is not something I like to think about too much, not only because it's horrifying (and it is) but also because the Army just does not play a role in it. But I agree. Interesting read.

 

Just in case you wanted to worry more (I think the Russians are unlikely), here is a thread from Jeffrey Lewis about Russia making a very public showing last week about starting a nuclear war. Maybe it was a ruse of Annie Jacobsen's publicist.

 

Great author. Read many, Lincoln at Gettysburg, Nixon Agonistes, Why I am a Catholic.

Jesuit novitiate

 

Yeah I love his writing, one of the great American humanists for sure. The John Wayne book is really good too, especially if you are a movie buff.

 

Grab your ankles and kiss your ass goodbye and as Nikita K said: " the survivors will envy the dead" in the case of an all out nuclear war. Even a limited would get ugly for many reasons ( fallout, environment, economic, political). If it happens I hope I never know what hit me.

 

She mentions that quote from Kruschev a lot.

 

My takeaway: fat chance shooting down a nuke, let alone a thousand of them.

 

The living will envy the dead …

A Time of Unimaginable Sorrow is Upon Us

 

In the scenerio you describe, I will be hoping that one of those Hydrogen bomb missles strikes within 1 kilometer of my immediate vacinity.
I'm pretty sure even the lower end yield nukes would turn me into a shadow on the concrete or at the very list dispatch me rather quickly.

Surviving a massive exchange of missles between numerous, or even just two countries, is for the rugged individualist, those looking for a reddish
tan, Georgia Bulldogs and of course Kim Kardashian.

I'm afraid the survivors will have a fairly tough road to hoe. Considering I'm 65 and have a bad back, I'm taking a pass on that particular work.

(Whats for Dinner Fred)?
Fred - I think it's little Johnny, the neighbors kid.

 

Or, like nearly all ICBMs today, the missile contains multiple warheads. Hope we can shoot it down in the early phase, before all the warheads detach from the missile body.