Aberdeen--Floor and Ceiling

This could probably wait until the dog days of summer, but since I already posted something on Condon's development, it got me thinking about Aberdeen's (especially in the light of the fact that so many are concerned about the point guard spot).

On the one hand, his skill set really reminds me of Justin Hamilton (especially before the injury). Good size, athleticism, and physicality, can defend three positions, takes care of the ball, but not a real shooter or incredible playmaker offensively. I think that's a very good comp for for him. On the other hand, his developmental trajectory reminds me a little of Wilbekin. Granted, Wilbekin came in as a very young freshman and he played a lot early for some pretty good teams because of his defensive prowess. But his offensive game was limited those first two years--spotty shooting, not terribly efficient overall offensively. He became the starting point guard as a junior on an Elite 8 team and took a nice step forward offensively, but he was still our first point guard since J-Ham in 2002 to not score in double figures. It was only as a senior that he became a clutch ballhandler and shooter for one of the best teams Donovan had.

I would not be one bit shocked if Aberdeen took a similar jump as Wilbekin did as a junior next year, though I think statistically his output is more likely to be along the lines of Hamilton. As a floor, I think Aberdeen can replace Kugel as a multi-position perimeter defender who can create a little offense for himself and really get out on the break, but obviously doesn't have anywhere near the scoring punch. Something like 5-6 pts, 2-3 assists, 2-3 rebounds at 15-20 minutes a game. In that event, we would still need somebody else to step up in the perimeter rotation.

As a ceiling though, I could see him as a 7-9 point, 3-4 assist, 3-4 rebound player, who gives us 25+minutes in a rotation with Clayton and Martin at the 1 and the 2. Alongside Clayton, he can match up with the better perimeter scorer and he can play on the ball as needed for Clayton to get minutes off it. Alongside Martin, those two could be one of the best perimeter defensive tandems we've had here in a long time, while having Richard at the three would give them both space to operate. The only question I have is that I don't recall Golden coaching a guard like Aberdeen in that kind of capacity--not at San Fran as head or assistant, or at Auburn under Pearl. Maybe TJ Dunans during the early Auburn days? I can easily see Aberdeen in the Kugel role next year, but it's hard for me to envision exactly how Golden would use him in a beefed up role because we just haven't seen those kinds of guards play for Golden.

But that's where development comes in (just like Condon and Haugh). I posted a Tweet a while back about the importance of returning minutes to Elite 8 teams this past season, and it's still true that the development of kids over multiple years is the sign of a good program. Elite 5 stars are missing at a much higher rate than in the past, while unlimited transfers mean the portal is like a candy store, but with so little opportunity to work on a kid's game. If Aberdeen continues to fill out his body a bit and to work on his shot, I think his knowledge of our system, experience at this level, perimeter defense, aggressiveness in transition, ballhandling, and effectiveness passing or scoring in the lane out of the pick and roll could make him a perfect complement to a high ball screen scorer like Clayton, downhill dribble drive guy like Martin, and spot up shooter like Richard. Can really run him with any of those guys and he could be effective offensively and defensively.

 

Coaches loved him against the press. Was put in specially for that.

 

That's fair. He was so sped up at times. Could barely look when he was on the ball early in the year. But, strangely, whenever he got good screen, he settled down and made good decisions.