Top meteorologists sound ‘alarm bells’ on worrying outlook for 2024 hurricane season

Well, Hell! I sure have seen a lot of 'em over my many decades here. This year portends one of the worst, it seems.

 

Get out the sharpies

 

I read somewhere that El Nino might be transitioning into a la Nina in the Pacific this year which could cause less wind shear in the Atlantic basin. That plus warm waters is definitely trouble.

 

They've constantly said this for the last 10 years. Honestly until it happens I am skeptical. It's all about clickbait and wanting to get more viewers. The Weather Channel is a pathetic shell of what it once was.

2019 was supposed to be above average. Nothing happened here in Florida.
2020 was supposed to be above average. Nothing happened here in Florida. 2023 was supposed to be above average, outside of the one storm that hit the most isolated least populated part of the state nothing happened.

Not saying they are lying, but this is what they always do. So I'll remain skeptical until we actually start to see the storms develop.

 

2002 was a pretty average hurricane season.

 

If a hurricane never hits Florida did it ever exist? The world is bigger than Florida

 

Living 20 miles from the coast in Florida of course I would be worried. The only thing we can do is to be prepared.

Well, unless Trump can sharpie it to Georgia.

 

He won't do that if he wins Georgia. I predict he will figure out how to send it to Chicago and on to San Francisco

 

Latest report has a record number of Cat 5’s carrying a super-variant of measles, unvaccinated Republicans hardest hit.

 

Water temperature obviously matters for hurricane formation, but while I think meteorology has come a long way, I'm not convinced it's precise enough to put a lot of stock in forecasts this far out.

 

This is my mentality as well. I'm not saying they are 100% wrong but meteorology still has trouble with snowstorms a week out. I'm not near convinced they are good enough to predict exactly what's going to happen during Hurricane season. I was just pointing out in my other post that there have been plenty of other years where they have predicted a higher than average season and it hasn't happened. I just don't put a lot of stock into forecasts that long out. Honestly I don't put a lot of stock into forecasts more than say 3 or 4 weeks out.

 

That storm that hit a less populated area was still devastating. Visit Taylor and Madison counties and tell them nothing happened

 

It was just a matter of time before they had to create a Category 6 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

 

Yep …… say it every year and there’s a 50% chance you’ll be correct. When the prognostication is wrong, there will be some reason to explain why the forecast was incorrect.

It is what it is. Watch the weather, be prepared, and don’t get stuck on stupid when the storm approaches.

 

Just so.

https://www.npr.org/2024/02/06/1229...o-add-a-category-6-designation-for-hurricanes

 

This nonsense again?

Of the top 13 strongest recorded hurricanes to hit the US, 3 have occurred in the last 30 years. These guys are a little late to the party. Got their name in the paper, though. And a lot of clicks.

FYI, 4 occurred between 1915 and 1935, a 20 year span.

 

No you got it all wrong. This year will usher in the 1st Cat 6 hurricanes.

 

There have been 8 Atlantic hurricanes recorded with a peak intensity of 180 mph or higher:

1935, 1980, 1988, 1998, 2005, 2005, 2017, 2019

There have been 10 Atlantic hurricanes recorded with a peak intensity of 175 mph:

1932, 1955, 1969, 1977, 1979, 1992, 2005, 2007, 2007, 2017

There are many ways to run the numbers, but it does seem like the strongest systems are making more appearances in more recent years.

All that said, "sounding the alarm bells" (or similar) is indeed noise for trying to get attention for Accuweather's website. If you live in FLORIDA (or anywhere along the Gulf or Atlantic coasts), nobody needs to sound the alarms, it's always about being prepared and having a plan for the next one. It doesn't matter whether 4 are predicted or 20 are predicted, you're always waiting and anticipating where that next one is going to go. Now, every now and then you get a period of lull and people may become complacent, but with Irma, Michael, Ian, and Idalia in recent years I don't think people are taking anything for granted. Or at least the ones who are won't be fazed by any "sounding of alarm bells." I don't recall any February hurricane forecasts in previous years. I'm sure it will capture and hold the attention of the desired audience.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS