Inflation at 0.1% for November (Updated)

Is the goal just to get the inflation rate back down to normal? We're not going to get prices back down to make up for the price increases we've already had, right? Wouldn't negative inflation or deflation also have negative consequences as well? Maybe I'm mixing up different concepts? I'm sure Denslow would be disappointed by my elementary questions.

 

They are just trying to get the rate back to normal so prices stabilize.

 

It doesn't seem like high prices are changing anyone's behavior. Flights are still packed even if a plane ticket is twice as much as it was a couple years ago. Still tons of people on the roads out doing things, Amazon vans whizzing all over the place delivering stuff people are buying.
If the economy is so bad, people wouldn't be able to afford to do these things.

 

He would be, but he would express that and make corrections in a polite, professional manner.

 

Fewer pilots, fewer flights, lower demand, same to higher prices. Supply cut back with lower demand so you don’t notice it. 5M fewer monthly passengers.

 

household debt up, feds mistakenly beleived that people had much more savings than they did. this should slow consumption independent of interest rates

Fed Officials Thought Americans Had Trillions In Excess Savings, New Data Shows They Were Wrong (msn.com)

It seems the strong consumer demand born out of a stay-at-home stimulus-laden pandemic environment is continuing into the end of 2022, and probably 2023 as Federal Reserve data issued Tuesday shows a sharp rise in household debt during the third quarter.

Due to significant increases in credit card usage and mortgage balances, American households increased their debt at the fastest rate in 15 years.

Total debt increased by $351 billion for the period of July to September, the largest nominal quarterly increase in 2007, suggesting that the "excess savings" the Fed believed Americans possess has already been spent. With this increase, the total household debt in the U.S. has reached a record high of $16.5 trillion, an increase of 2.2% from the previous quarter and up 8.3% from one year prior.
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Why it matters: In a sharp pivot from the Fed's October report, which estimated that Americans had excess savings of about $2.3 trillion, researchers from the New York Fed attributed the credit card growth to "very robust" consumption, rising prices, and consumers using significant amounts of savings that are still in their accounts.

 

Just a general observation around natural gas prices I recently heard a guy on the podcast “odd lots” that in the future LNG will become like oil, it will have a worldwide set price. The result would be to decrease LNG prices in Europe but increase gas prices in the US.

i saw this today, which kind of demonstrates that affect

Natural Gas Prices Tumble On Freeport LNG Rumors | OilPrice.com

Domestic nat gas prices fell as it was announced that an LNG would be offline longer than expected - bad for Europe, good for US. It would be logical to think over the next few years this could be a modest US inflationary force.

 

Baby boomers are dying. People are inheriting wealth they never had, once they spend it will be gone.

 

wealth changes hands. it doesn't disintegrate.

 

No it gets spent.

 

we're both wrong, but you more than me. exchange CREATES wealth.


So, consumers value goods & services. If I value a six pack at $8 then I won't buy it for more than that. Likewise, if a seller can make a sixer for a cost of $5, she won't produce it unless she thinks she can get more than $5. If she offers it for sale at $6 & I buy it, I'm better off by $2 & she is better off by $1. The exchange creates $3 of NET wealth.

Nature does not know extinction, only transformation....

 

You left out taxes, but ok. Also what does that have to with people inheriting money they never had and spending it?

 

I know from one of the industries my company is in that Amazon stopped all capital development a few months back. They’re now going to lay off 10K workers.

 

from yr post above: "People are inheriting wealth they never had, once they spend it will be gone."

the bolded is the pt I was addressing. Dropped a lot to take the fam on many great vacas. Those memories constitute some the greatest wealth I have. (not to mention the folks who made $ off our fun)

 

Where do you think it goes?

 

China.

 

The trade deficit (as measured) is prob the dumbest metric ever created.

look at this. this is for an iphone



&, yet the iphone creates a trade deficit.

 

Jerome more or less confirmed my suspicions in his remarks today. Half a point in December.

 

Nosedive into recession.

 

Oh look it's Nostradamus. It actually gives me a great deal of comfort to see you predicting this.