Our Biggest Problem: One-dimensional Offense

I have secret information so sensitive I wouldn’t dare tell my closest family any details of said information.

I will however make vague, non-specific references to said secret information on a message board I’ve been a free member of for 6 weeks.

I love forums.

 

Also, there is no way in hell you’ll disclose those emails, to protect the source.

However, they are saved in the “important” folder to make 100% sure they are not deleted or lost.

The last thing you’d want to do with an email you desperately want to never be seen is to delete it. Be sure to save it and label it “important” so that no one will ever have the ability to see it, and if they do, they’ll never realize it’s “super duper important”, because it’s not in THAT folder.

 

But for some reason only in the distant future? For now it has to remain shrouded in mystery and intrigue?

 

We got bigger issues

 

The defense is one-dimensional because of one person, the QB. We do not know why, but he looks uncomfortable running. Maybe it is injury. Maybe it is fear. Either way, I find it odd that a 6'4" 235 pound dual threat QB does not enjoy taking some hits. His passer rating is 130 to 151 against FBS competition when he rushes for 100 yards or attempts 15 rushes; otherwise his passer rating is between 63 and 120. That one dimension of AR running for 100 yards or attempting 15 rushes adds more dimensions to the offense. We can joke about the high school offense that Napier runs, but the so-called experts seem to think this offense would be a good pro-style offense if run correctly--and that is not happening. I get it that Richardson worked on pocket passing in the offseason with Denny Thompson at Six Points Jacksonville, and we can see improvement in his passing when he is comfortable in the pocket. He needs more time to get comfortable, perhaps to get over some fears. Could the offense work better with Jack Miller or Jalen Kitna? In the long run, I doubt it. That might work for a few plays until the defenses narrow down the passing lanes that only Richardson can hit, when he is in a good mood.

On the topic of Tim Tebow vs Richardson, I would say that Tebow's accuracy was highly dependent on whether he could see the receiver. In simpler offenses and simpler plays where he can see his receiver's helmet, his accuracy is excellent. It helps that he had excellent receivers who could compensate for underthrown balls, but make no mistake--Tebow was more accurate than many of us give him credit for. When it comes to anticipating the open grass for the receiver is where Tebow was inaccurate, and that seemed to be his downfall in the NFL. Look at the slant that he threw to Demaryius Thomas--he put the ball right where it needed to be because he could see Thomas' helmet. Obviously he is not in the NFL anymore because he had problems with anticipatory throws, which made up the majority of the playbook in the NFL. Richardson for some reason is very good at either type of pass, or very bad. There is not middle ground with him right now and that is baffling. The closest comparison to AR from a passing perspective is PJ Walker (Temple 2013-2016, currently Carolina Panthers). Walker's passer rating fluctuated between 70 and 199 in his freshman year where he was a starter, but it bounced between 68 and 148 in his sophomore year, then 90 to 220 his junior year, and 78 to 200 his senior year. We only have one year of Richardson to evaluate, but in this limited data set he is profiling like a dual-threat version of PJ Walker--and that guy is in the NFL.

 

Commenting after having read the first 2 pages but not having time to read on. What has to be considered is NOT merely the development of one Qb. There is of even more importance, the development of the program and setting the stage for the Coaches future. Does anyone here actually believe that we have the roster talent/experience/maturity to make a run at anything ‘significant’ next year in Billy’s second year at the helm ??? Cause one way or the other IF AR comes back, next year would be his last year. And while he ‘might’ improve, I don’t see the team itself improving enough that it would enable us to get his backup ‘next guy up’ significant playing time/experience. SOoo, what THAT would mean is that even if A/R could develop and carry this team to a 9-3 kind of record, that after next season, we would be staring at ‘starting over’ in the development of a Qb, or at least building continuity and chemistry, in year 3 of Billy’s tenure. And personally, I don’t think that will have a good look nor bode well for patience from gator nation. Seems to me that IF we are going to still have to ‘take lumps’ while we build to a more talented roster and experience , that it’s best that we get a guy plugged in at QB next year that is going to be there for at least Billy’s year three and hopefully four.

 

I'm petty. Wtvr happens I just want to be in good shape by 2024 for our game against Miami....

 

Respectfully disagree on your assessment of O line. It has clearly struggled in spots, and an infusion of new OL talent is always a must. But it's a long way from being the primary cause of our current offensive deficiencies. IMHO, AR's recurring issues with injuries, accuracy, and maintaining his composure under pressure are significantly more concerning than the current make-up of the O line. The running game hasn't performed at this high a level in a complete vacuum and we aren't giving up a ton of sacks. The rebuild, rebuild, rebuild starts with the defense, defense, defense - and, of course, at WR and QB. I totally agree with you on the need for an open competition at QB in the Spring. But based on what little we've seen of Kitna and Miller, I see them both as "break glass in case of emergency" types. Brown remains a virtual unknown - albeit with a tantalizing degree of arm talent.

 

The only explanation I can come up with is you're using "one-dimensional" differently than is commonly used. It usually means reliant on either passing or rushing. As noted, we are relatively balanced with regard to run/pass (about 45-55)

You also seem to be dwelling a lot on completion rate, which ... is important but rarely the thing that makes or breaks an offensive game.

Case in point: we were a last-second INT from losing to Utah despite the 71% completion rate.

If the defense stops just one of those wide open 40+ yard TDs against UT, we win, despite a 55% rate.

And he had 60% completion and 100+ rushing yards and we still got torched by LSU.

So ... completion rate is something to consider, but I wouldn't lean on it that much. AR has issues, but the best we can do with him often hasn't been enough.

 

This offense MIGHT be better if we had better Wrs, more consistently accurate qb and better pass blocking- how much better is hard to quantify.
The WAY more concerning thing is - the dry, conservative approach and refusal to budge. Napier fancies himself in the Kyle Shanahan /mike McDonald tree and those offenses have WAY more creativity in the passing game. They put their WRs in much better positions to get open. We are running 2 WR routes, long developing play action, going deep a lot, no quick game unless it’s a wr screen or Ill timed poorly thrown slant… Georgia was able to tee off on us because they knew most of our stuff was longer developing stuff. Against Tennessee and in the 3rd 1/4 vs Georgia we started getting more creative, AR ran hard…. It opened things up. Why is that not the plan all the time. There is a stubbornness that really worries me. A feeling of “this is our system, lineup and run these 8-10 plays no matter what”. And that’s not gonna win championships. It seems like a more underlying problem than just not having talent. I don’t care who you get in here- that’s not gonna cut it. Everyone can see it. Napier has to know it. Will he adjust?

 

I really think that the team’s biggest issue has been that it’s transitioning under a first-year coach, it’s a team game and the team has multiple holes to fill with recruiting or the portal, and they’ve lost to the #1, #3 and #10 teams along with a strong UK team. Im as disappointed as anyone when we lose but realistically it would be a stretch to beat any of those teams with the exception of UK and they did get a bonus win against Utah. Hoping next year the schedule is a little more favorable and some of the holes are filled.

 

I'd love to see it and I believe it is absolutely possible. And FTR, I'm not writing AR off even if we do lose both games. But I'm not holding my breath on the outcome of either one - not with this defense anyway.

 

I don't know what you do about a game like that. Daniels was throwing darts and hitting bullseyes.

 

Yeah, we noticed. I still believe an accurate QB without AR's athleticism would have been sacked at least 30 times this year and probably would be on crutches after the UGA game.

And any comparison between Tebow and AR (I am a huge Tebow fan) has to also take into consideration that, in the years he started, Tebow was throwing to:
Percy Harvin, Aaron Hernandez, Riley Cooper, Louis Murphy, David Nelson, Andre Caldwell, Deonte Thompson and Frankie Hammond all of whom ended up playing in the NFL.
How many of our current receivers do you think will play in the league? (I don't include Pitts and Toney because AR was not the starter and I didn't include Dallas Baker because Tebow was not the starter in 2006).

 

In a word - no. I'm old as hell, and for most of my life as a CFB fan a near 65% completion average would have been considered very good to excellent. It's the inability to make basic plays on a consistent basis, the apparent problems with dealing with pressure of any sort, and the hesitation to take advantage of running opportunities when they open up that concern me most. AR will almost certainly retain the starting job for the rest of this season, barring a complete melt down. But he must improve across the board to fulfill his awesome potential and to lead UF back to being competitive in the SEC.
Edit: FTR record, AR's correct Comp. avg. is 55.07. That would have been mediocre at best in 1960, much less in 2022.