Hurricane a'comin (Ian)

My favorite guide out of Gasparilla Marina didnt take his boat out when he left. Brand new 26 Avenger. Unbelievable hull that runs in spit and can handle chop as well. Hope it made it.

 

I wasn't suggesting to the contrary. But your circumstance is not exactly common.

Either way, evacuation orders are also a communication device, which was my point.

And I've also heard, thankfully secondhand, that even those that are in pretty solid situations swear they'll never stay during a hurricane again. They try to describe it, but most of them say it's a horrible experience that they will not repeat.

But either way, the role of public authorities is to make those decisions and also to communicate

 

Would DeSantis have blamed Biden if Biden was the Florida governor?

 

That sounds like a great plan and is what I used to tell my wife, but after staying thru several canes, she is no longer convinced. Now says she will be on the first plane out.

 

Not sure about Desantis, but I'm sure trump would have. California fires is a prime example.

 

We haven't left yet. Charlie thru Ian. Irma had lot more rain, Ian was lot stronger. Ian is first roof damage but roof is 18 years old

 

Well, I think watching shutters rip off, picture window blow in, glass shards in the wall unit and no AC after a Wilma spawned tornado influenced her thoughts. Also, she saw Andrew destruction up close.

Our friends in FM now have power so things are looking up for them. Hoping recovery goes quicker than usual. It seems that the the Sanibel/Pine Island news is more positive than expected. FM Beach, not so much

 

Just curious what’s the Cat number you would consider bugging out?

 

100%
The official track relied too much on the GFS which has been less accurate than the Euro.
I’ve watched these things for 40 years. Being a surfer in Florida it’s what we wish for all summer long (the big right hook anyways).

There are two really good guys that do daily updates and I suggest people listen to them. They get into the details of what and why. Both of them were talking on Sunday that the GFS was being over weighted and the Euro was being ignored.
I went into to work Monday and told my staff that they needed to clear Wed-Friday on the schedule because it was gonna push further east than they were saying.
I literally laughed when a few people said oh we will be back here Friday..

When a low storm like that starts it’s turn north this time of year they stay north or northeast.

There was plenty of data showing a quicker turn was a even bet to get people off captiva and sanibel sooner. The storm was still going to be very close even if it didn’t turn

With a Cat 4 it only made sense to do that. NWS didn’t extend the hurricane warnings south until pretty late. That’s a ball drop.

 

Honestly, if we would have suspected this one was going to reform and come out as strong as it did (essentially a cat 5) we likely would have left for this one. We had 120 mph wind speeds and only minimal shingle damage but we have been through so many that the weak links have been removed already

 

FMB definitely got the worst of it but Sanibel did get quite a bit of flooding and wind damage. Our roll down shutters are rated for 200 MPH and we installed hurricane proof windows when we replaced our windows a couple of years back.

 

That’s pretty good was the 120 sustained or gusts?
I wouldn’t think asphalt shingles would hold up much more than 120 sustained.

My house is 2021 code 2 story CB with impact windows and standing seam aluminum roof. Thinking house likely would do well even up to CAT5 (not that we would stay with a direct hit on one of those.

 

Im guessing those were gusts. Sustained was in the 90's. Our house is early 80's but way overbuilt from spacing to plywood (5/8"). I think truss package was for tile and then they did shingle but not sure. Hurricane clipped and strapped down..I think it would take a tornado to hurt the house or some wind driven debris to puncture the plywood roof. Soft pitch, no gable makes much smaller roof profile, sucks for attic space though. Roof was done in 03 and we lost around 10 - 12 shingles on 3 faces but no wood exposure.

In general, newer roofs had little to no damage if quality shingles. Cheaper and older roofs had varying amounts of damage.

 

Road to Pine Island is open. If they would get the hell out of the way, we could be on Sanibel in 3 months or less is what Im told. Need to dredge all that displaced material to rebuild the islands andbthe approaches. Dredging creates silt when deposited and stacked to dry andbthe water runs off. Controlling that in an extremely limited footprint delays everything. Especially in the middle of a Manatee zone. The bay side of the islands is all no wake manatee zones. Thats where the material was moved to.

 

My HS classmate is SS and travels with POTUS. He texted me from the air and said as we all have seen by now that it looks like a war zone.

 

I apologize if this redundant since I haven't read this entire thread. I suspect that the main reason why residents of Sanibel Island as well as other residents of other barrier islands along the Gulf failed to heed warnings and evacuate as requested by the authorities was because the forecasts for damage from Hurricane Irma five years earlier turned out be considerably less than was originally forecast. I grew up in South Florida and have been through several hurricanes and have been obsessively reading detailed accounts about the storms over the last 50 years. Rather than people who have never experienced a storm, it seems that a significant percentage of storm-related casualties are individuals that have actually experienced previous relatively minor storms (a Cat 2 although significant is relatively minor compared with a Cat 4 or 5) and based on their previous experience fail to heed warnings urging evacuation when the "big one" hits believing that they can ride out the storm.
The last hurricane to hit the region.
The Monster Surge That Wasn’t: Why Irma Caused Less Flooding Than Expected (Published 2017)
The difference between Ian and Irma.
Fort Myers Beach after Irma: bruised, but not broken
Fort Myers Beach 'gone' after Hurricane Ian decimates Florida's coast

 

That does seem like an engineering challenge for sure

 

Same as it has ever been, humans are bad at assessing risk. We get warned something bad could happen, then it doesn't, then we start to assume all the warnings will be overstated. And to some extent they are, because those making the warnings see that people aren't paying attention to them and amp things up to get people to pay attention. Then it isn't as bad and the cycle repeats.

All it takes is one tree in the wrong place to ruin your life, doesn't matter if the worst of the storm missed you.

When I was a kid, our trailer was the only one in the trailer park to receive any damage from a hurricane. Our trailer was completely destroyed. On average everyone in the trailer park was best served by not worrying about the hurricane. But one family should have done way more. But we don't know ahead of time if we are one of the 149 trailers that are going to be fine or the 1 that needs to be moved.

We underestimate our chances of being drastically affected, and most of the time it works out. But we are always surprised when it doesn't work out, even though we shouldn't be.

 

True generally, and solid points, but also God Bless of your childhood trailer