Will Democrats sweep the Senate?

Trafalgar released a bunch of polls today across a number of states that all looked about 5-10 points pro-Republican compared to other polls. They are usually relatively accurate (538 gives them an A-), but they are a partisan Republican outfit.

 

Two things. First, at least in recent history, close races don't act like a coin flip. All politics is now national and races are not independent. The close races usually all break late the same way.

Second, the so-called "laws" of politics are all based upon a small sample size. Yes it is absolutely true that the party out of power in the White House usually gain seats in the midterms. It's also true that results that are cooked in in June almost never alter by November. Both suggest strong Republican pickups.

But these are all based upon admittedly small sample sizes in terms of numbers of elections, with rapidly changing demographics and political technology and behavior.

That's why it's so difficult to model in this area.

Personally I am heartened by the latest, but I'm trying to remain realistic.

 

McConnell is fessing up without realizing it when he says that in statewide elections the quality of the candidate matters. You gotta love that gerrymandering.

 

One should never under estimate the ability of Democrats to completely foul up an election.

 

While I tend to agree one should also never underestimate the ability of Donald Trump to foul up an election. Trump is almost personally responsible for the loss of the two Republican Senate seats in the Georgia runoff in January 2021 and he's apparently doing the same again. He's already hurt his own party by endorsing more extreme candidates in Republican primaries who are weak general election candidates because they supported his false claim that the election was stolen from him. Although he is being urged by the Republican establishment not to do so, I wouldn't put it past Trump to give the Democrats another gift by announcing his 2024 presidential run prior to the midterms.

 

One thing always to keep in mind is that the Senate structure creates a "natural gerrymander" for Rs that Nate Silver has estimate is wort 5-6 seats. So an even Senate reflects a not insubstantial 5% majority. 55 seats, while still highly unlikely IMO, would really represent a popular mandate. Query, would Rs ever claim to have a "man date", or is that too gay? ;>

 

No more pole dancing for the tiny tots in Pennsylvania if this guy gets elected. Go ahead - just remove all the enrichment classes.

 

Here’s all I have to say: polls always skew left.

Id be surprised if the Senate moved more than two seats in either direction.

 

They skew left for a reason! Remember Hillery was gonna win by a landslide! How'd that work out for you guys! My take is this: If the Dens can steal as

 

We need a poll on poles.

 

many votes as they did in the last election you will be in great shape!

 

Well said!

 

Blocked.

 

They didn’t skew left in 2012 or 2018.

 

Americans hate the residue of Trump more than they hate broadening misery and despair, near record inflation, soaring violent crime, almost uncontrollable border crisis, stubbornly high excess deaths and flirting with WWIII and nuclear war.

 

They just did that to throw us off, so we wouldn't suspect them when it really mattered

 

Mason Dixon poll released today showed big widening leads for Rubio and DeSantis. Both have been ahead in most polls, but these were big margins, far beyond earlier polls. Could be an outlier, or could reflect that Rs are really getting on the airwaves of late after Dems dominated airwaves early

 

Meh.

I quit worrying about who controls what many moons ago. Now that there’s a majority of conservative SCOTUS justices, even less.

I’m actually curious as to what a democratic pres, senate, and house would do. If I was poor or struggling to make ends meet I’d be scared. Democrats don’t have an issue with passing regulations that hurt them.