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Strategy for Engaging Russia-China Coalition

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by uftaipan, Aug 14, 2022.

What strategy should the U.S. and our allies follow to best deal with Russian and Chinese aggressio?

  1. Withdrawal

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. Status Quo

    2 vote(s)
    12.5%
  3. Containment

    8 vote(s)
    50.0%
  4. Initiative

    6 vote(s)
    37.5%
  1. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    Maybe not. The two countries joining NATO seem more keen to support Ukraine than some of the others who are more reticent. But NATO is not democracy. It requires consensus from member states to act. So two more members favoring a more proactive approach might not have an effect one way or the other.
     
  2. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 GC Hall of Fame

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    Let's see China's economy is teetering on the brink of collapse, and any real nudge by the U.S. could send them into a serious recession. They have a Ponzi scheme of banking... with loans that ware tied into their ghost cities... But killing their economy out right might have severe consequences for the world and for our economy too. However, we should continue to bring important computer chip and other computer parts manufacturing back home, ASAP... especially away from Taiwan.

    Russia is no more than a gas station that has no real manufacturing to worry about. They are useful for raw materials, but we should try to find other suppliers of raw materials. As we also need to ween ourselves off of China's death grip on rare Earth elements. The quicker we can figure out a way to supply our needs without these two nations the better off we will be. We can find better trading partners, though it will not be just one country that can replace much of what China does.

    Other than that we need to keep our lead in military technology... It would be so easy to limit the intellectual property theft that China acquires illegally. But this requires divestment in human talent from China and divestment from their economy. That is a slippery slope. I liked President Trump's plan to make them pay while we brought home several technology manufacturing companies back from and out of China. That seems to be the best/easiest way to decouple our manufacturing ties to that nation.
     
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  3. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

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    The old Rick is back! Well said!
     
  4. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    Has not a traditional “cure” for potential economic ruin in autocracies been to go to war? What you’ve written has a lot of truth and is just one more reason why I believe we need to watch China closely and not give them an inch on Taiwan.
     
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  5. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 GC Hall of Fame

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    Yes, in the past that certainly has been true. But we have effected other nations buy other means. Like Reagan... he bankrupted the U.S.S.R. into the "gas station" that they have become. They never have learned how to reconstruct their economy properly.
     
  6. Gatorhead

    Gatorhead GC Hall of Fame

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    To QUOTE General Stonewall Jackson, at the Battle of Fredricksburg:

    "Kill them" - "Kill Them All"
     
  7. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    I note that his unit did not accomplish the task.
     
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  8. Gatorhead

    Gatorhead GC Hall of Fame

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    True but then, it's hard to find many examples in Human history where this is true. A few (close) examples:

    Little Bighorn / Custer's band (not Miles). The British (Red-Coats) did not fare well at Isandlwana either, or the British evacuation of Kabul (Elphinstone's army), the Alamo of course, or Leonida's stand with the Spartans at Thermopylae.
     
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2022
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  9. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    Very true. “Kill them all” is an easy order to give, but a difficult end state to effect. Even in those examples you gave, there were survivors to tell the tale.
     
  10. Tjgators

    Tjgators Premium Member

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    I agree. Nuclear is the cleanest, strongest & most efficient form of energy on the planet. Until it is up and running we should be exploring, mining and building infrastructure for oil and gas. If you want to flex your muscles and create peace through strength, you have to have your energy ducks in a row. We do not. Europe does not. Our European allies are weak.
     
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  11. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 GC Hall of Fame

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    I found this article to be enlightening and disturbing at the same time. I sincerely hope that nothing devastating happens to anyone's pension funds or other retirement/stock investments... I hope Governor DeSantis reads that article/report carefully.


    A consumer group has warned a bipartisan group of governors against investing state pension funds in BlackRock, one of the world’s largest money management corporations, because of its close links to China.

    e urge elected officials to do their due diligence in educating themselves and their staff on the multiple risks posed by BlackRock’s extensive investments in Chinese companies, both from an ethical standpoint as well as the fiduciary responsibility owed to U.S. pension holders and retirees,” William Hild, executive director of Consumers’ Research, says in the letter to the 10 governors.

    The consumer group sent the letter to four Democrat governors—Jay Inslee of Washington; Kathy Hochul of New York; Steve Sisolak of Nevada; and Tom Wolf of Pennsylvania—and to six Republican governors: Ron DeSantis of Florida; Pete Ricketts of Nebraska; Henry McMaster of South Carolina; J. Kevin Stitt of Oklahoma; Greg Gianforte of Montana; and Jim Justice of West Virginia.

    Washington state invests $13 billion of state pension funds into BlackRock, according to the Consumers’ Research notice, followed by Florida with $10 billion.


    Next are New York, which has invested $9.8 billion in pension funds in BlackRock; Nevada with $9.7 billion; Nebraska with $9.4 billion; and South Carolina with $9.3 billion.



    These 10 States Invest Most Pension Dollars in BlackRock's China Ties
     
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  12. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 GC Hall of Fame

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    More from the financial side of the Chinese dilemma. Our very on Romney is involved... of course he is.


    The County of Ventura pension system, at the advice of Bain (the Romney/Whitman form) loaned $10 million to Chinese companies approved by the Communist government of China. Is this money lost?

    ““Big Chinese tech stocks lost hundreds of billions of dollars in combined market value in July, reflecting rising investor concern about how the sector will fare under a barrage of regulatory pressure from Beijing,” the Wall Street Journal reported last week. “A large number of companies, including Alibaba, Baidu Inc. and JD.com Inc., have both Hong Kong shares and American depositary receipts.”

    In February 2020, the Globe reported that Indiana Rep. Jim Banks sent California Gov. Gavin Newsom a letter calling for the investigation of the Chief Investment Officer Yu Ben Meng of the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the largest public pension fund in the nation, for his “long and cozy relationship with China.”

    “The fund [CalPERS] has invested $3.1 billion in Chinese companies, some of which have been blacklisted by the U.S. government,” Banks told FOX Business’ Maria Bartiromo in an interview.



    US Pension Funds Lost $400 Billion on China Investments in July - California Political Review
     
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  13. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 GC Hall of Fame

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    This one article puts the China problem in a very real and very dangerous perspective...

    Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and two GOP colleagues, Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) sent a letter on April 6 to President Joe Biden’s four nominees to serve on the board of the Federal Thrift Retirement Investment Board (FTRIB), the primary pension fund for government employees, requesting that they pledge not to invest funds in Chinese firms that may undermine U.S. national security.

    Currently, more than $152 billion of overall U.S. investments are in state-owned enterprises based in China, according to a 2021 U.S. government document obtained by The Epoch Times that analyzed information from SEC filings as of November 2020. The document found that U.S. investors have allocated over $2.3 trillion to China since 1992.


    As of November 2020, over $47. 8 billion are in what the U.S. Defense Department classifies as “Chinese communist military companies.” That month, then-President Donald Trump banned U.S. investments in such designated companies, an executive order that has since been expanded upon by the Biden administration.


    The 2022 document also found that state and pension funds invested $14.8 billion in Chinese securities. The state of California led the way in investments in China and Hong Kong, with 1,611 securities with a total investment value of nearly $8.5 billion. Right behind was the Alaska Permanent Fund Corp., with investments in excess of $2 billion, and the Teacher Retirement System of Texas, with over $1.1 billion invested.


    US Pension Funds Invest Billions in Chinese Firms, Stoking National Security Concerns – [your]NEWS
     
  14. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    As long as China holds the threat of war over us like the Sword of Damocles, all public sector organizations with investment funds should divest of Chinese holdings. I would recommend that private interests do the same, but for the public sector it should be law.
     
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2022
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  15. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    I would think survival of the nation (Poland) would take precedence over a bureaucratic protection that might be meaningless on the battlefield. If they don't get involved and ensure that Russia is defeated, they could be next.
     
  16. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 GC Hall of Fame

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    Absolutely... I agree 100%.
     
  17. Tjgators

    Tjgators Premium Member

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    What can we do to defend Taiwan? How do we do it? I've heard military people claim Taiwan can put a hurting on Beijing & Shanghai with their missile system. If true, I would think that would be enough to keep China from attacking at this time of economic uncertainty. China might think now is the time to exercise your #4 given the resources they have and the current strength of their enemies.
     
  18. Tjgators

    Tjgators Premium Member

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    Poland is not in a good place right now. I work with a factory there. They produce my #1 revenue producer. That country is struggling and it's not getting better anytime soon. They are having huge problems due to the cost of natural gas in Europe. This represents 40% of their production costs and they have seen a 1000% increase in their gas prices. These European countries are weak and vulnerable.
     
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  19. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    One could write pages with detailed answers to your questions, but one will give a brief assessment instead. If I were the Chinese decision maker or advising them, I would say the only way we should invade Taiwan is if we are (as close to 100% as possible) certain the U.S. will not intervene. Crossing the Strait in force is going to require a massive air and sea lift, and we absolutely need air and maritime superiority to have a reasonable chance of success against Taiwan fighting alone. The U.S. has superior air and naval capabilities that when combined with Taiwanese defenses could prohibitively interfere with our scheme of maneuver.

    If leadership insisted on an attack against Taiwan without assurance that the U.S. would not interfere, then our greatest chance for success is also our most dangerous course of action: preemptive strike against U.S. space capabilities and Pacific air and naval assets as well as regional basing (Okinawa, Guam, etc). That might give us the time and space we need to take Taiwan before the U.S. can react. But I would also like to point out that the last Pacific power who tried the same move provoked general war for limited objectives and wished very quickly that it had not.
     
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2022
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  20. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    China would never start a war with the U.S. to get their hands on Taiwan. Taiwan is a matter of pride to them, but not anything vital or urgent. When Japan decided to try to remove the U.S. from the Pacific, they needed easy access to oil, rubber, and iron for their military. Japan was sorely lacking in natural resources to support a modern economy and military. Removing the U.S. from the Pacific, had it been successful, would have given almost all of Asia over to Japan. Japan would have all of the natural resources they could have imagined. China is going to risk defeat, humiliation, and economic isolation over what--an island with some nice resorts and a few computer chip factories? Don't forget, if China attempts to invade Taiwan and fails, it could cause the people of China to turn on the Party. There is no voting process to get rid of a bad communist party--it has to happen the hard way.

    China will take the long view with regard to Taiwan, and wait for the most favorable circumstances possible. If the U.S. ever got engaged with the Russian military, or if another Great Depression so completely wiped out the U.S. economy that we couldn't properly fund the military, or if a president decided to commit to NOT defending Taiwan under any circumstances, then China would attack. Everything they are doing now is just posturing, to get the world ready for the idea of an invasion, and plant a seed of doubt as to whether the invasion would be justifiable or not.
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2022
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