The perception of crime vs. stats

While crime has trended back down recently it is still substantially higher than it was pre pandemic.

 

Can you imagine the wild west with instagram?

 

Wow, extremely in depth analysis.
You’ll have to travel far to find this kind of deep stuff.

 

You get what you pay for.

 

In terms of homicide it is still about 50% higher than its low. But at the time it is still lower than any year prior to 2012.

I understand the point, the rhetoric may lack context and doesn’t align with the most recent trend back downward. But at the same time many may feel that being 25-50% higher off the prior low is not “OK” and still should be lower.

If the point is Adams may be riding this politically to his benefit that is probably true.

 

Yes, another systemic D self-own. He’ll lose re-election by the way he got elected.

 

Perhaps. He may be a one trick pony.

I liked some of his messaging and moderation as a Democrat during the campaign, but It wasn’t clear whether that would translate into actually making a good mayor. Mayor of NYC is an extremely difficult job.

 

While I suspect you disagree, some Democrats in purple areas want to signal they care out about issues that the middle class voters care about and are not beholden to the party’s woke warrior ruling class.

 

It would make sense that it's trending back down as things are normalizing and we're out of the fever pitch of pandemic disruption. But there isn't any objective benchmark on where crime "should be" in the aftermath of a pandemic disruption. Don't be so taken in by this idea that being "woke" about social issues is somehow bad. To me this would be your displaying the same type of ignorance that those "middle class" people have when it comes to crime. Most people haven't the foggiest. Their bad ideas are based in fear. We've seen the lack of any understanding of the etiology of criminal behavior or of the criminal justice system response that can at best be described as malpractice.

 

This was a point I made in the other thread. People wildly misperceive the prevalence of crime, and media coverage plays a huge role in that. We recently saw Chesa Boudin, a progressive prosecutor pushing for evidence-backed changes to the criminal legal system, lose his recall election because the media ran nonstop copaganda misrepresenting the statistical realities in the city. Now, they have a regressive prosecutor who is putting back in place the same policies that have failed for decades.

 

I like Demings, but unfortunately, she's well behind Rubio right now. Oddly enough (well, the moderates will consider it odd), if you look at the Democrat who is killing it right now in a purple state, it's John Fetterman, who is more aligned with the Bernie wing than the establishment wing of the party.

 

Just keeping score here…according to your brilliant analysis, all cops are bad and despite “perception”, violent crime is not rising throughout many parts of this country.

Thanks for setting us straight.