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Too Hot Investment Thread

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by channingcrowderhungry, Feb 11, 2021.

  1. Gatorhead

    Gatorhead GC Hall of Fame

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    1) 7-11 Lottery Tickets

    2) Lots in that development Mr. GK talks about, the one where the water pollution eats the mortar from the brick.(In Florida) I'm so divested I can't remember anything anymore.

    3) BOEING

    4) Thanos Needles

    5) Vegas - Dropped a cool million that trump would be Pres again in 24.

    6) Newspapers - I have been investing HEAVILY in news papers

    7) Bosley's Hair Re-maker

    8) Qanon Building Complex near Trumps palace

    9) Oh my - Trump Casino's of course (recent exciting news out of AC on that)

    10) Heads internal and external topical healer:
    cures: Cancer
    Diabetes
    Heart Disease

    Any takers wanna talk?
     
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  2. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

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    You're not wrong, and the market today may be the beginning. But I think most people have been expecting a correction at some point. Only a few things I own I wouldn't be comfortable holding long term.

    I oscillate between the Warren Buffett idea that you mentioned

    "Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful"

    and the sage financial advisor Q-Tip from the rap group Tribe Called Quest

    "Scared Money Don't Make None."
     
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  3. exiledgator

    exiledgator Gruntled

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    Yeah, today was a blood bath for me (for the ~12% of my portfolio I actively manage).

    I thought Powell's "commitment to current policy" would help me more. But at least I've gotten out of a lot of sketchy stuff (ZSAN / TNXP) the last couple of weeks and am pretty comfortable letting what I have ride for a bit (NIO, XPEV, ABML, CCIV...).

    I agree a deeper correction is coming before EOY.
     
  4. Gatorhead

    Gatorhead GC Hall of Fame

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    Gee make a real nice sarcastic post and not one emoticon.
    Guess I lost it - I thought the Thanos was a good one........
     
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  5. exiledgator

    exiledgator Gruntled

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    Oh crap! That was sarcasm? [Scurries to sell Boeing and Bosleys]
     
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  6. vaxcardinal

    vaxcardinal GC Hall of Fame

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    yep, this sucked but hope its just a small blip in a longer term holding.
     
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  7. exiledgator

    exiledgator Gruntled

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    It will be. Solid company with excellent leadership, great tech, and now well financed.

    Leader has agreed not to sell equity for 18 months. Speaks volumes.
     
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  8. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    Seems like this thread is more of a speculation thread vs investment thread. Individual stocks and Bitcoin. I don't do either.

    For those that buy individual stocks, do you do so because you feel like you have information that will outperform the market, or do you do it just for fun, like casino gambling?
     
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  9. tonto-86

    tonto-86 Sophomore

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    I definitely aiming for long term. I'm just so very new to this investment thing.
     
  10. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    I think it’s 10 or 11 times we have set ten new record highs by February, in all but one of those years the market was still up at year end by an average of 16 percent.

    this is a weird year so it could be the anomaly, but odds are we make through the year without catastrophe. The other weird thing is that like 9 of those years had corrections in them. So volatility is likely.
     
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  11. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    I posted the below in post #170. As I said below, I don't want to offend anyone, but most of this thread is noise. The way to go about is some version of the below. The problem is the financial industry makes money on transactions, so that is not shockingly what most people do, trade, trade trade. But you are better off buying the market at very little cost and sticking with it. This isn't just me saying it, there is lots of evidence to back it up.

    If you really want to learn about investing go here:

    Bogleheads


     
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2021
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  12. dave_the_thinker

    dave_the_thinker VIP Member

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    Broad market indexes beat the funds 9 times out of 10.

    Same strategy for me ... move everything between a blue chip index and a Small/Mid Cap index depending on short term growth prospects.

    It never loses, and it's easy to read. Trade deficits are a good leading indicator because blue chips lean on overseas assets, and Small/Mid caps rely on domestic growth, and pick up first when growth first picks up.
    20% a year is not hard to come by.

    Also routinely switching in and out of the small caps reduces your chances of getting stuck with lemons in your basket.
     
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  13. lacuna

    lacuna The Conscience of Too Hot Moderator VIP Member

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    It's a fun thread with something for everyone. I'm still clueless on Bitcoin and other cryptos, but learning. Due in part to this thread. Mostly learning cryptos aren't for me.

    Trucker deals in options from a fund set up for it, but our two main holdings are not traded. We've held J&J for more than 50 years watching it grow through more splits than I can recall, and Apple since before its last 3 splits. Will never sell these stocks, our children will inherit them.
     
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  14. gator10010

    gator10010 VIP Member

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    You don't have to pick just one way of investing.

    You can buy the market funds, buy individual stocks, gold, silver, Bitcoin, real estate, etc.

    If you are just looking for facts about where you can put your money and have the best return then history and the facts say that there is nothing close to performing better than Bitcoin in the last 10 years. Most people still aren't comfortable with this investment and see it as speculation and that's ok but if we are going by historical returns Bitcoin wins.

    Normally, the most opportunity comes in the investments that people don’t understand or don't take the time to research and learn.

    My experiences have led me to keep an open mind about investments regardless of how crazy or wrong they may appear on the surface, do my research, understand what I'm buying and then trust myself regardless of who is saying what.

    This thread is no different than watching Warren Buffett on YouTube or Wall Street Bets on Reddit....every post is just one individual's opinion about investing. That is how I take Warren Buffett's advice as well as any poster on this thread.
     
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  15. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

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    Most platforms have fee-free trading now. I know that the financial industry still makes money matching up buyers and sellers on these, but it isn't like you are getting hit with a fee every time you buy or sell anymore.

    I don't think anyone is under the impression they will definitively beat the market over time. But some people certainly will. Just like some people will go to Vegas and beat the house. As most have said, actively trading is a small part of their investments. For me we are talking about 5-7%. If my goal was simple to safely maximize my earnings over my life, sure, buy some mutual funds or ETFS and never look at them. I should also never go to Vegas or occasionally buy a scratcher at the gas station when I have a dollar in my pocket (shoutout to @Gatorhead for this sage financial advice on buying lotto tickets). But damn that sounds like a pretty mundane existence to me.

    Also a big part of what I do in my research is track what the institutional holdings in a stock are. As you've mentioned, these guys tend do perform the best over time. Seeing who is holding a stock, and what percentage, is my way of trying to make sure I'm not completely off base when I evaluate a holding. The research capabilites today online is freaking amazing, which is also part of what makes it fun.

    This thread went from stock discussion, to a little real estate discussion, to retirement strategy, to crypto, and back to stocks. There probably isn't much traction in continuous talking about real estate or retirement plans, so naturally the thread has settled into stuff that is a little more dynamic in nature.

    Nothing wrong with Bogleheads, it's been mentioned a few times. I think there is a place for all of this to be discussed here. JMO.
     
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  16. PerSeGator

    PerSeGator GC Hall of Fame

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    I'd just like in Vegas, the more you play (buy and sell/day trade), the worse off you're likely to do. Picking an individual stock that you believe in as a company and holding it long term gives you a better chance of success. For example, Forrest Gump would be a multi-billionaire right now from his investment in "some fruit company."

     
  17. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

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    True. And most of my holdings are stuff I plan to keep long term. As we mentioned earlier my best performing stock is also the one I've held the longest. Ford.

    But one time in a casino I was playing 3 card poker. A terrible game that I had never played, and never will again. But I hit a straight flush that paid 40-1, and paid for my entire trip. And those type stocks are fun to put money in as well. As long as you are willing to lose that money.
     
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  18. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    To be clear I have no problem if people want to play with a portion of their portfolio for fun. It may work out, it may not. As long as people going in understand it is fun money, it it isn't the most efficient form of investing on a risk reward basis.

    The reason I posted mostly the same thing, again, is that for those that are new to investing, all of the trading stocks and Bitcoin on the internet tips posts overwhelms the volume Boglehead-ish type posts, and people come to think that is what investing is. But it really isn't investing. It is speculation. If you want to build long term wealth, trading stocks and cryptocurrencies based on internet tips is not the way to do it.
     
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  19. SeabudGator

    SeabudGator GC Legend

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    Lucid may be a great company, but how would any of us know? They currently have sold exactly 0 cars. They have $0 revenue. They have not exhibited the ability to manufacture vehicles at scale, sell them or service them, much less do all of the above producing any profit. We cannot compare their scale cars to existing EVs, and we know that the number/competition in EVs is ramping rapidly.

    Speaking of profit, the average car company traditionally produces 13-20% profit. At a historically rational p/e of 12 for car companies, this would imply Lucid needs sales of +$50B and revenue of $10B (based on Lucid market cap of $60B). All of this going from the current $0 in sales. This is a capital and labor intensive business. The best EV company in the world (Tesla) has barely squeaked out any profits. Further, the Lucid Air is priced well above other EV sedans.

    For all this, one can own this company with no current revenue, much less owner earnings, for a mere $60B dollars. GM by contrast has a similar market cap and made $9.7B in pre-tax earnings in 2020 and actually sells EVs. Now, I am not a huge fan of GM but this is just one stock relative to Lucid in the universe of potential investments.

    Scale matters in auto manufacturing and there will not be a lot of EV manufacturers. Some old ones will die or get bought and many new companies will do the same. I hope anyone who buys Lucid does well, and I deeply hope EVs completely eliminate IC engines as quickly as possible. In any event, I may completely miss the boat on Lucid, but it won't bother me a bit given my analysis, briefly touched on above.
     
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  20. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

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    I think you're making two different arguments. The first being that so many of the stocks in the EV industry are over valued. No argument from there there. Most all of the investment in these types of stocks is rampant speculation. Tesla, QuantumScape, etc. This isn't just limited to EV, but marijuana stocks, medical, etc. You aren't wrong but it doesn't seem to matter in the current market. It certainly could all be a huge bubble. Wouldn't surprise me in the least. It's money I'm willing to risk.


    There's a reason I loaded up on Ford at $5. The reasons you said.

    As for Lucid itself, it has a ton going for it as a company. The CEO is the old chief engineer from Tesla. They have have strong track record with their technological participation in Formula E. The specs and reviews on the Lucid Air are awesome. The technology in the Air is industry leading. They just got a shit load of capital. Obviously they need to put rubber to road, but I have a strong belief in everything I've seen and read.