SUMMARY OF 550 AM AST...0950 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 61.5W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NE OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES She is expected to turn north and split between the Eastern coast and Bermuda. She intensified into a cat 4 about 12 hrs sooner than expected and big storms sometimes have a mind of their own and don't follow the model predictions. My personal belief is she will brush the coastline closer than what is being predicated now.
...CATEGORY 4 ERIN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 62.0W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NE OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES Since the 5 am advisory wind up 120 to 145 mph pressure down 955 to 935mb just a note: they keep saying WNW but the storm has tracked due W 19.8N at 5 am 19.6N at 8 am
Current dropsonde readings are getting 925mb With wind readings at flight level of 179 mph We might see an upgrade to cat5 at the 11 am or 2 pm advisory.
It’s at 935 not 925, and it could come 300 miles closer to the US from its current path and still not impact the US. HURRICANE ERIN
...CATEGORY 4 ERIN STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 62.8W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF ANGUILLA ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES Winds up 10 mph to 155 Pressure down 10+ MB to 223 Still moving W
The 925 I posted was the raw data numbers that were coming in from the hurricane hunter not the hours old 935 posted by NHC. The 11 am advisory bore that out 923 mb There is going to be one pass of the plane soon and they are expecting another drop in MB. Edit: the last pass got a reading of 916 mb
Updated advisory ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN IS NOW A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Erin has become a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds near 160 mph (255 km/h). The minimum pressure has fallen to near 917 mb (27.08 inches). The next intermediate advisory will be issued at 200 PM AST (1800 UTC). SUMMARY OF 1120 AM AST...1520 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 62.8W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...255 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES
I get it, I enjoy your posts as the other weather geek here. Had you just posted the dropsonde info I probably would have geeked out with you. But with all the NC residents that post here and all they’ve been through with storms the last few years, that prediction on strength (which was very possible but still speculative as those readings aren’t always taken at face value by the NHC) combined with basically saying NC was potentially at any kind of risk when the odds are probably a few percent at worst, just felt a bit over the top, so I was trying to tamp things down a bit. If the cone does happen to take a dramatic shift there will be plenty of time to discuss it. But for where we are now, the 923 reading being official, cat 5 does look very possible. But NC folks shouldn’t be concerned as of now. Bermuda is another story. They have a horse shoe up their back side on direct hits, we will see if that continues.
It's becoming a given that these things are going to spin up to Cat 5 every time. It used to be extremely rare.
