The bad thing that is going to happen is that the clearinghouse may try to limit the player's collective contract and if they don't back off, the clearinghouse will get sued in court and lose. It's pretty much inevitable at this point. The NCAA has already caved on Collective deals when the House attorneys complained that hamstringing the collectives was not part of the originally approved settlement.
Did you read my immediately prior post with the attached ESPN article? The college sports programs and coaches are planning as if the provisions in the settlement, as revised to address the collective, will not be overturned.
I didn't read the article, but what else should the colleges and coaches be doing? When any NIL deals that are attempted to be limited by the Clearinghouse are overturned in the courts, they'll be planning for whatever the next paradigm is. Here is an article that is as skeptical about the ultimate success of the NCAA's latest attempt at limiting 3rd party NIL payments to athletes as I am: MSN
[QUOTE="tampajack1, post: 17904835, member: 4367" I don’t know why Big East teams would only have $5 million to spend on basketball players unless that’s all the money the Big East teams can come up with on average. 'Some coaches have no idea': The uncertainties of recruiting in the new rev-share era[/QUOTE] I suspect the guesstimate of $5 million for a Big East program is a bit low but it may not be unrealistic. When you consider fan base size, it's dwarfed by a program like UF. For example, Villanova has an undergrad student population of 6,700. UF's is about 35,000, and if you include grad students, it's about 55,000. Gator Nation is widespread and huge, and those folks, if they have a reason to cheer, will buy merch by the ton, and donate great piles of cash. If our current NIL budget is around $8 million (by some estimates), it's probably lower than where it ought to be. I saw a clip a couple days ago of Coach Todd speaking to a Gator Booster club somewhere. They were hanging on every word... and one thing Todd said was that top players now want to play for the Gators, but these days it's going to cost a lot of money. He's out there laying the groundwork and people are listening.
I suspect the guesstimate of $5 million for a Big East program is a bit low but it may not be unrealistic. When you consider fan base size, it's dwarfed by a program like UF. For example, Villanova has an undergrad student population of 6,700. UF's is about 35,000, and if you include grad students, it's about 55,000. Gator Nation is widespread and huge, and those folks, if they have a reason to cheer, will buy merch by the ton, and donate great piles of cash. If our current NIL budget is around $8 million (by some estimates), it's probably lower than where it ought to be. I saw a clip a couple days ago of Coach Todd speaking to a Gator Booster club somewhere. They were hanging on every word... and one thing Todd said was that top players now want to play for the Gators, but these days it's going to cost a lot of money. He's out there laying the groundwork and people are listening.[/QUOTE] My guess is that the NIL budget for this coming season for the Gators is somewhere around $12 million. It's possible that the $12 million amount includes the money that Xaivian Lee will get paid this coming season per his contract with Serious Players Only. My guestimate is based on Lee, Fland, Condon and Haugh getting paid somewhere in the $9 million range in the aggregate, Chinyelu getting somewhere between $1 million to $1.5 million, and the remaining amount getting paid to the rest of the players. I agree with you about the Big East. It is known that Seton Hall doesn't have a pot to piss in, and it is possible that a few of the other programs don't have a lot of money to pay their basketball players.
That's a good article, as is the one I linked. No one knows right now what is going to happen, but caution would seem to be the watchword when player eligibility, game forfeiture and other NCAA punishments are on the table. One thing to bear in mind is that the power conferences and their associated universities support the NIL payment limitations, so they are not going to stand behind the coaches and staff running their basketball and football programs. Another relevant point is that the lawsuits that collectively were part of the House settlement took years to get resolved and were approved by a federal district court judge in a class action lawsuit that affects all of the colleges that opted into the settlement. I would expect there to be some resistance for higher federal courts to strike down this settlement. Finally, you have Trump's executive order blessing the settlement and possible federal legislation that will do the same. Taking into account all of the foregoing, I don't see any sort of slam dunk with respect to the higher courts striking down the settlement.
The NCAA is attempting to use this settlement, which in no way creates any law, to put a cap on player compensation. They've created an annual "cap" on athlete compensation directly from the universities and ostensibly some form of enforcement arm to monitor universities usage of the cap. If you follow the money, you'll realize that other than ticket sales, student athletic fees, and TV revenue the only other revenue stream is from donors. Collectives greatly threaten that revenue source. Donations to collectives are donations that the University wants directly in their coffers. The $20M+ in direct payments will blow a massive hole in most universities budgets and that is why the NCAA went after the collectives until the House side of the settlement accurately pointed out that knee-capping the collectives wasn't part of the settlement. I don't think that Trump's EO exactly blessed the settlement but it does address pay for play, which I'm certain that the Supremes never approved in their 9-0 ruling allowing NIL. Getting the NLRB involved as this EO does may end up with all of them being employees. There is definitely a lot of uncertainty about the next few years, so proceeding with caution is probably wise. I'm certain, however, we haven't seen the last paradigm shift in college athletics. We've witnessed personally what the NCAA can do to a disfavored institution to make an example. They had already begun an NIL investigation at UF before federal judge shut them down due to NIL lawsuits from the States of TN and VA. It will be a fine line between trying to be competitive and following the murky rules. We know from experience that certain universities and conferences are mostly immune to the NCAA poking around (unless they employ a pedophile). Sorry for the long answer. I do enjoy discussing this, which is odd since I bemoan the loss of amateur sports in this country.
