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No immigration = low GDP growth

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by l_boy, Jul 13, 2025 at 12:51 AM.

  1. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/07/08/immigrants-america-workforce/

    Stephen Moore is a giant douche but he is mostly right here.

    Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/migration-employment-growth-inflation-01fdab43

    Net immigration could be around zero in 2025. Boomers are retiring and the domestic workforce is declining. Population growth is below zero population growth. Expecting high GDP growth in such an environment is folly.
     
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  2. gatorrob87

    gatorrob87 GC Hall of Fame

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    Yeah but MAGA owns the liberals and Rump will tariff our way to prosperity like we did in the roaring twenties. Duh!
     
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  3. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    I’ll take threads that nobody gives a damn about for $100, Alex.
     
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  4. demosthenes

    demosthenes Premium Member

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    Nobody cares about the economy? Interesting take.
     
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  5. HeyItsMe

    HeyItsMe GC Hall of Fame

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    Only when Biden is in office.
     
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  6. dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

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    Tariffs and mass deportations: a good recipe for stagflation.
     
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  7. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    Its not the economy, stupid, its the racism, stupid

    [​IMG]
     
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  8. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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    I’m not opposed to immigration, per se. I work for a European couple who immigrated legally. They jumped through all the hoops and at some expense to themselves. And I am confident that we contribute to the GDP.
     
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  9. gator_jo

    gator_jo GC Hall of Fame

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  10. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    Somebody actually disagreed that no population growth, or declining population will lead to lower GDP. Let’s like disagreeing that 1+1=2
     
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  11. saltydoggator

    saltydoggator Freshman

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    Just as public sentiment starts to shift ever so slightly on the issues surrounding immigration, the bankers ramp up their talking points on the horrors of a slowing or stable GDP. The continued enthusiasm to serve the banking and corporate class at all costs to your community and nation is discouraging.

    The Problem with GDP

    From the article, "In the 1960s Robert F. Kennedy commented that [GDP] measures ‘everything except that which makes life worthwhile’. ...

    "The problem with gross domestic product is the gross bit. There are no deductions involved: all economic activity is accounted as if it were of positive value. Social harm is added to, not subtracted from it. A train crash which generates £1bn worth of track repairs, medical bills and funeral costs is deemed by this measure as beneficial as an uninterrupted service which generates £1bn in sales. Cleaning up the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico was ‘worth’ more to GDP economically than the carbon absorption provided by the Amazon rainforest. This highlights some of the faults of GDP, but it has become such a pervasive measure that societal happiness is equated to it."
     
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  12. BLING

    BLING GC Hall of Fame

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    Posts like this help me understand how nuts like Putin/Castro/Erdogan/ Kim/etc maintain power even with runaway inflation and broken/corrupt governments. No, GDP isn’t everything… but it is something. If things get measurably bad, we’ll see MAGA pivot to “FaKe NuMbErS, don’t trust the bankers!”. Although it’s not just bankers, a lot of these #’s are compiled by data scientists and academics. Authoritarians generally don’t like any “numbers” which put the regime in a bad light. That is true whether it’s GDP data, or climate change data, or Epstein files.

    I’m sure there are a plenty of people in those countries who must find “alternative” economic measures of happiness! 30% inflation and collapsing quality of life as measured by GDP will tend to do that. Yet they have plenty of flag wavers cheering it on, whatever “it” is.
     
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  13. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    As I've said before there are basically two factions in the GOP: The people who are there for the ethnic cleansing / culture war project and the business people for who racism and bigotry is just a side hobby, because they have real skin in the game financially. Its quite easy to see who is on what team when they start posting about how "GDP is overrated" or how much they don't mind paying more for stuff.
     
  14. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    None of this is wrong, but at the same time our society has always created opportunity through growth. If we aren’t going to reproduce, keep getting older, and keep immigrants out, we will have to figure out another way. It is certainly possible - Japan is already in the middle of it.

    But ultimately the question is why? Why would you not want immigration? Sure, you could argue it got out of hand during the Biden years, although even then I’m not seeing that there were major harms.
     
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  15. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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  16. gator_fever

    gator_fever GC Hall of Fame

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    And more jobs for Americans. That H1B stuff should be severely cut also as it's just a scam to mess over US workers. It's crazy the difference in jobs going to US workers over foreign born ones since Trump started trying to clean this mess up. Regardless we are going to have major issues with AI taking a lot of jobs soon. The funny thing is most of the jobs it will take will be from the people that voted to allow our country to be torn up.
     
  17. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    Do you have evidence US citizens are taking jobs from immigrants? Because what I'm reading is immigrant labor shortages are starting to hit the economy now. And the US unemployment rate has hovered between 4.0% and 4.2% since January, when Trump took office again.

    If I'm missing something, please post it.
     
  18. tampajack1

    tampajack1 Premium Member

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    The United States has become a poorly educated country. The average reading level of American adults is about seventh grade. Do you need a doctor? Take a look at the names of the doctors. The great majority have foreign names. Take a look at the valedictorians and salutatorians graduating from high school. Most of them have foreign names. Throughout American history, there have been a large number of immigrants, maybe a majority, who are the creative people that give a boost to the economy. I don’t see the United States, especially with the attack on education that is going on, maintaining itself as having the best economy in the world. Throw in tariffs, and the other crap going on, and we’re all standing on a sinking ship.
     
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  19. saltydoggator

    saltydoggator Freshman

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    Inflation in authoritarian and otherwise isolated or resource poor countries is driven largely by trade deficits. Last time I checked Cuba, North Korea, etc. are not having a tough time with immigration. I simply disagree with the propaganda that the United States must and should remain dependent on cheap foreign labor.
     
  20. saltydoggator

    saltydoggator Freshman

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    The articles like ones you posted promote the false message that but for cheap foreign labor the US is doomed and so is your 401K. That message is grounded in greed, not labor shortages.

    Tech and outsourcing companies continue to exploit the H-1B visa program at a time of mass layoffs
    https://www.epi.org/blog/tech-and-o...-in-2022-and-laid-off-at-least-85000-workers/

    Corporations exist to make a profit, largely at all costs and they will promote to the general public whatever is necessary to ensure their profit. To continue to ignore the broader impact that profit maximization schemes like cheap foreign labor have on the United States and our fellow citizens is incredibly irresponsible.