War in Ukraine

I think we are going to find out if Chinese Air Defenses are any better than Russian if Iran does not agree to a peace deal before too long.

 

Do you mean in the sense that the CCP will start selling or donating its best stuff to Iran or that the CCP might (try to) intervene?

 

Apparently there is unconfirmed reporting that China has sourced Iran with some Air Defense systems.

 

What’s the typical lead-up time to deliver, install and train on this systems. Having them up and running this quickly seems to this layperson to be insanely fast.

 

No idea really. Typically a normal fielding of a new military system is a least three to six months just to do training and meet training and readiness standards.

 

China is trying to help itself to Ukraine's missile technology, through a father & son espionage team in Kiev. A bit of a black eye for China's "vaunted" missile technology program, if they have to steal technology from Ukraine.

Chinese father and son arrested for spying on Ukraine’s missile programme

 

They steal from everyone, just like their Soviet predecessor did. If you want to keep a certain technology out of Chinese hands, just don’t invent it.

 

Lol! China???

That's what they do. That's who they are. They don't invent shit.

IP pirates to their core.

 

I have been meaning to address this. I don't think that the decision to hold back certain munitions (which we all agree Ukraine needs) has as much to do with liking (or fearing, if you buy Putin has something on Trump) Russia or hating Ukraine as much as it does with honoring the strategy that Colby has laid out for denying the CCP regional hegemony in Asia. Now I'll state up front that I disagree with the element of the strategy that decouples whatever happens to Ukraine from whatever could happen to Taiwan, but on the whole Colby's strategy is sound. I met him back in December 2023, and I've read his book, The Strategy of Denial, once while I was in War College as required reading and then a second time after Trump won the election and I thought Colby might be the new National Security Advisor. In my opinion, Colby is one of the better advisors that the President has around him, and he is very well studied on the strategic problem with the CCP. The thesis of his strategy is that in order for the CCP to upend the current world order and displace the U.S. it must first achieve regional hegemony in Asia. The major obstacle to achieving that end is Taiwan's de facto independence: The CCP must assert sovereignty over Taiwan in order to break out of the First Island Chain, sever the physical link between Japan and the Philippines, undermine the American-led alliance, etc. If that thesis is true and that scenario is the greatest realistic threat to U.S. national security, then you must subordinate other elements of national interest to prevent that from happening. Further, Colby believes that our best opportunity to prevent the CCP from succeeding is deterring them from making the attempt, because once the CCP tries to effect its desired ends by force of arms there is no turning back. It becomes generational war. Now I have no problem understanding and agreeing with all of that. The elements of his strategy that I think need more thought are on the idea that Ukraine and Taiwan have no effect on each other (therefore we can worry about Taiwan and not worry about Ukraine) and the role of Russia in Colby's strategy. First, I firmly believe that defeating Russia in Ukraine enables the very deterrence that Colby seeks to achieve, and how worried the CCP seems to be about the implications of Russian strategic defeat seems to support me in this. Second, in his book (which in fairness was published before Russia had invaded Ukraine and had established this "no-limits partnership" with the CCP), Colby expresses that having Russia as a counterbalance to China is a critical part of the strategy (not unlike how we balanced China against the Soviet Union from the mid-70s to the end of the Cold War). That sounds great, but I think that has been overcome by events and we now need a strategy that assumes Russia and China are in it together. In my opinion, that means balancing Europe against Russia in order to keep them physically out of any fight between us and China. Doing so means continuing to support Ukraine. But if we simply must have Russia as a potential belligerent against China, then the only realistic way I see to get that is to facilitate Russia’s strategic defeat against Ukraine. We have to make Russia so weak that instead of viewing China as its partner against the U.S., Russia views China moving against its holdings in the Far East (some critical elements of which used to belong to Imperial China) as a greater risk and hugs the West as a more healthy alternative to Chinese regional hegemony. So in summary, if people with actual knowledge of the situation have determined we need X munitions in X numbers to deter the CCP from making its move against Taiwan, then I am in support. But we also need to be doing what we can to make enough munitions to enable both efforts. Absolutely no grief with the concept that deterring the CCP is the strategic main effort. But that does not mean we don’t have critical supporting efforts that buttress the main effort. And that is how I see Ukraine.

 

Trump says “Why wasn’t I told about cutting off weapons to Ukraine ? It’s not happening. Here’s another evening’s worth of missiles for Kyiv.”

 

America laid low. We could quit any time, but we’re brokeback on the Zelensky regime …

 

Trump teases 'major statement' on Russia amid new attacks on Ukraine

Had not seen this posted yet, but it is a couple of days old. I hope this a is a genuine sign that the President now fully understands his peace plan has failed. It was worth an effort for reasons I have explained upthread, but it was a longshot because of Russia and Russia alone. No plan short of Ukraine's effective surrender would have been acceptable to Russia, and nothing acceptable to Putin would be remotely acceptable to Ukraine and the allies who provide Ukraine with material support. The bottom line is that Russia needs to bleed more, perhaps a lot more, to bring them low enough to accept what we are willing to offer. It is far past time to start progressively raising the pressure on Russia until it cries uncle. I look forward to whatever policy statement the President has on Monday. I sit in forlorn hope that it is a step toward defeating Russia, instead of placating it.

 

The only thing I would add to this excellent post is this: Once Russia crossed the LOD into Ukraine, Xi likely saw it as a free test case on how the world would respond to the CCP's operation to take Taiwan. We need to ensure that Russia continues to lose in Ukraine in order to deter XI and the CCP from taking Taiwan. We need to force XI to have sever distrust about the things his generals tell him they can accomplish and he could end up in the same situation as Putin is in now. There is an old saying that once the King gives the order to invade, he places his fate in his generals' hands. That is what should be keeping Xi up at night.

 

Putin takes out a maternity hospital. What an absolute badass. He might be a pretend PhD, a pretend judo champion, and a pretend spy, but he’s a certified tough guy now.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...hospital-sending-patients-fleeing-2025-07-11/

 

Looks like Russia will be giving up on modernizing its lone aircraft carrier. Either Russia cannot afford to update the piece of junk, or its so technologically backwards, that the task is hopeless. During previous attempts to update the carrier, highlights included multiple fires and one drydock sinking. The carrier is described affectionately by Russian milbloggers as "cursed".

Russia May Finally Abandon Its Cursed Aircraft Carrier

 

Well, I’d be happy to turn it into an artificial reef that brings in all the fishes. Just say the word.