Them Rebounding Gators

In his presser a few weeks ago. Said Haugh will start at the 3, probably play 10-12 minutes there, but spend the bulk of his time at the 4.

 

Haugh got more minutes because he and Condon were our best combo on both ends according to the data, so we ended up playing them together that the final five or so. The two of them split the 40 at the 4, then played another 5-8 minutes together. Hard to predict just yet how that will play out this year. I would personally love to see us steal some minutes in the two center lineup. But you would need the right mix of guys. I think Chinyelu is athletic enough that he would have no problem defending the 4. Offensively, it’s trickier. Lee can be such an iso heavy player that he need space in the paint to operate, and Fland already has some issues finishing around size. Will be fun to see them try out some different combos along the way.

 

I would be vey surprised to see Chins and Handles on the floor together. I would expect Haugh and Condon to get the full 40 minutes at the 4 unless Mikic earns some playing time at the 4.

 

That surprises me as it leaves about 30 minutes for the Brown's and Ingram at that position. I would expect Condon, Haugh and Chinyelu to get around 90 minutes in total, and Handlogten to get another 20 minutes. That would leave only 10 more minutes at the 3-5.

 

Thanks for the thoughtful questions. It’s a bit complicated, but only a bit. First thing in your example is that we have an issue with sample size. It’s kind of like a pitcher that has a 1.00 era over 100 innings and a pitcher with a 0.00 era over 5 innings. Clearly a 0.00 era is better, but no one would really trust numbers over just 5 innings of effort. Same with grabbing the one possible offensive rebound. You are correct that this leads to team a having a better rebounding rate, but it’s not a very reliable number.

The main issue is that rebounding rate separates offensive and defensive rebound rates. This is important because defensive rebounds tend to be easier to grab. Here’s an example with more likely numbers:

Team A misses 20 shots and rebounds 5 of them. Therefore team A has an offensive rebounding rate of 25%, and team B has a 75% defensive rebounding rate (assuming no balls go out of bounds).

Team B misses 40 shots and rebounds 11 of them, giving them a 27.5% offensive rebounding rate. This leaves the other 29 boards for team A, giving them a 72.5% defensive rebounding rate.

Note that team B has the superior rebounding rate on both the offensive and defensive ends, and yet they were outrebounded 34 to 26. This ostensible paradox can be resolved when we recognize that team A experienced more of their rebounding opportunities on the defensive end, which again are the easier ones to control. (Nerd note: this math phenomenon actually has a name: Simpson’s paradox).

This is a good question that I should have explained better. Again, the key here is separating the offensive and defensive rebound opportunities. Teams are expected to grab most of the rebounds off of the opponent’s misses, so these opportunities must be separated from the ones that occur on the offensive end.

It’s actually a little like weighing a tournament resume by strength of schedule. An SEC team with a 25-10 record is usually superior to a 32-3 team in the WAC (does the WAC still exist?). WAC wins are easier to get, just as are defensive rebounds. While total rebound opportunities will always be the same between two opponents, often one will have more defensive or offensive opportunities.

Looking at the thesis I just spilled out, I hope that makes more sense and not less. Lol.

 

Yes . . . those were great explanations. Now I understand it. Thanks!

 

What are the other options? He has been clear they plan on starting Haugh at the 3, and he isn't just going to roll him out there for the opening 4. Things could always change if Haugh can't play the 3 effectively, or if Ingram or one of the Browns are ready to play substantial minutes. At this stage, Ingram is very young and very raw. AJ Brown is coming off shoulder surgery, so he won't be able to put in a full summer and that can be difficult for a shooter. Isaiah Brown could always blow up, so we'll see. We know Golden prefers a 8-man rotation, and never goes more than 9. I can't imagine more than two of the Brown brothers, Ingram, and Lloyd get significant minutes, given the fact that we essentially return 5 rotation players (if you count Klavzar), and add Fland and Lee.

 

And he will be. Doesn’t mean he is guaranteed a spot in the rotation.

 

Chinyelu and Handlogten get all 40 minutes at the 5. Condon gets 30+ at the 4. Haugh gets the remaining time at the 4 and 25-30 minutes at the 3. The other guys I mentioned split the remaining time at the 3.

 

Castleton is the only big Golden has ever played more than 28 mpg (and that was because we had just no other options). His pattern has been 25-28 minutes for starting bigs who can play multiple positions (Massalki, Kunen, Ryuny, Jurkatamm, Lull, Samuel, Condon, Haugh) and 18-22 for single position starters (Tape, Handlogten, Chinyelu). That’s a pretty good indication of how he manages his rotations.

I don’t see Golden playing Condon that much, Haugh so little at the 4, and Haugh so many minutes overall. He expressly mentioned that Haugh wouldn’t be a full time 3, too.