The private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June, badly missing expectations for a 100,000 increase, ADP

I see your macro economic acumen is just as terrible as ever. Beyond the lack of any kind of expertise on the subject, only someone on the far right like yourself could have such an unrealistic belief that you’re smarter and more informed than any one of these individuals on the FoMC, much less all twelve.

• Jerome H. Powell, Board of Governors, Chair
• John C. Williams, New York, Vice Chair
• Michael S. Barr, Board of Governors
• Michelle W. Bowman, Board of Governors
• Susan M. Collins, Boston
• Lisa D. Cook, Board of Governors
• Austan D. Goolsbee, Chicago
• Philip N. Jefferson, Board of Governors
• Adriana D. Kugler, Board of Governors
• Alberto G. Musalem, St. Louis
• Jeffrey R. Schmid, Kansas City
• Christopher J. Waller, Board of Governors

 

More positive numbers today, but a bit of a mixed bag on the underlying data. Here's a thread from economist Justin Wolfers who I've always found to be pretty fair when assessing this type of data:

 

Trump Always Winning.

 

What, no follow up now that July's job report came out?

 

ADP = Full of Shitskie in Contrast to the Department of Labor:

Golden Age: U.S Economy Adds 147,000 Jobs, Much Higher Than Expected, Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Falls

Employers added 147,000 jobs in June as U.S. labor market continues to defy expectations

Employers in the United States added 147,000 workers to their payrolls in June, the Department of Labor said Thursday, and the unemployment rate declined to 4.1 percent, defying predictions of labor market sluggishness following the implementation of President Trump’s tariffs.

Economists had been expecting 110,000 jobs and an unemployment rate ticking up to 4.3 percent.

The April jobs report was revised up by 11,000, from a gain of 147,000 to 158,000. May was revised up by 5,000 to 144,000. Combined, the revisions added 16,000 jobs to the April and May reports.

Wage gains continued in June. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2 percent in the month and are up 3.7 percent from a year ago, well above the rate of inflation. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 0.3 percent.

The private sector added 74,000 and the public sector added 73,000. The federal government’s payroll continued to shrink, falling by 7,000 in June.

 

Chances that you didn't claim that the numbers from BLS were "fake" in the last 5 years are very, very low. In fact, chances that you didn't do so while citing ADP numbers is at least very low.

 

BTW, how does this compare to the average under Biden?

 

Good question. Be sure to let us know.

 

No, not at all.

I was the one saying Bidenflation was really 12% when it officially peaked at 9.1%.

My belief was and is still today that Biden bought down the inflation rate by raiding the strategic petroleum reserve to get significant reductions in one area, energy, while all other areas were experiencing much higher inflation.

It was a running joke in here, maybe I was the running joke, as I kept reporting on my wife's grocery store findings which painted a much darker picture than what was being reported by the government.

 

So the government numbers were fake then, but when the same agencies use the same procedures, with the same career employees, they are believable now? Okay.

BTW, you are aware that inflation numbers are broken down by product, right? Your theory here would be really easy to prove if it were accurate.

 

It was 353K (16.6 million jobs over 47 months). Even in the last year, it was 186K, so about 27% higher than this reading.

 

So, what is the big picture to you?

Looks to me like shrinkage of government employees and an increase in private sector hiring along with rising wages and a reduction from 4.2 to 4.1 on the unemployment rate, good things.

 

Tell me when Trump raids the strategic petroleum reserve to artificially reduce inflation. Procedures weren't discussed by me at all.

 

Government employment expanded. Quite a bit actually.

The big picture is a market that has been in labor shortage for years (where supply dictated hiring) is tightening back to a more fairly standard employment market.

 

Presuming it passes, the OBBB is high on growth, looking forward to it.

 

when someone posts an intellectually dishonest and purposely misleading statistic such as giving previous admin credit for jobs added coming out of covid, they lose all credibility. Just saying

 

Yes, deficit spending usually is.

 

When somebody can't continue to read to the second sentence, they lose all credibility. Just saying. I answered the question asked...and then volunteered the information that would be more comparable (without being asked to do so).

 

LOL! It won't be just as it wasn't for Trump 45. Carry on.