CBO Releases Report on Trump/House Bill

PITBOSS · Jun 24, 2025 at 11:56 AM

l_boy said: ↑

CBO doesn’t have a crystal ball. They can’t predict the future. Most of these issues the article outlines were new initiatives without much history for prediction.

With tax cuts however there is more data available.

Also the article chose to focus on issues that tended to underestimate spending. There are examples the other way.

At the beginning of 2010 prior to passage of ACA - the CBO forecast of Medicare plus Medicaid was $1.4 trillion for the year 2019.

https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/recurringdata/51118-2010-01-budgetprojections.xlsx

But by 2019, Medicare, plus expanded Medicaid, plus ACA subsidies was $1.25 trillion. So by all accounts ACA reduced the rate of increase in federal health care spending, even though it expanded overall eligibility.

If you look at total mandatory spending (entitlements) the 2010 CBO forecast for 2019 was $2.8 trillion. By 2019 the amount was about $2.9 trillion. That’s pretty damn close overall.

Net of receipts the original forecast was negative $800 billion in 2019. The actual was closer to $600/$700 billion in 2019.

So all of these examples of specific CBO underestimates in the article related to ACA ignored the fact that ACA actually reduced the rate of growth of federal medical entitlement spending, had no effect on total entitlement spending and actually lowered the rate of growth vs projections of entitlements net of related receipts.
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Bottom line, the BBB adds to our deficit which is already massive.

oragator1 · Jun 24, 2025 at 9:45 PM

G8tas · Jun 24, 2025 at 9:55 PM

oragator1 said: ↑

Click to expand...

He's not wrong though

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