U.S. May Have Only Five Years of Oil Left

In this case, that's like hearing your wife say that the bank accounts are running out of money, and no one is working, and responding with "Why can't we use a mix of spending, like ATM withdrawals, writing checks, and using credit cards? Will that work?" as she grabs a 2"x4" and walks up silently behind you . . .

Using a mix of energy is fine, as long as it corresponds to a rapid reduction in the use of oil. That means we need to rapidly take measures to encourage uses of forms of energy not named "oil". You want to do this as far in advance as possible before you get anywhere near running out of oil or becoming dependent on OPEC. The U.S. economy will not turn on a dime, and U.S. consumers cannot all afford to buy EV's in a 1-2 year time frame. It could push the U.S. into a Depression, if Trump doesn't push us into one first.

Peak oil actually did occur in 1972, and it led to U.S. dependence on OPEC for oil, which led to oil embargoes in 1973 and 1981. Our economy was not very good in the 1973 - 1981 time frame, and oil dependence on OPEC was a big part of that. Fracking gave us an independence from OPEC for a while, but it will not last (obviously). Peak oil will be back within 5 years, apparently. Most people have forgotten what a truly bad economy is like for an extended period, but it's not a good thing. Let's not burn the house down.

 

My daughter might get a Prius, but I needed something larger for hauling things. My Highlander just turned ten. In 2015, there was a hybrid Highlander, but it was relatively new and quite a bit more expensive than the regular one.

 

We have not been at peak oil since 1919. All you are telling me is that you don't know what peak oil is. Peak oil is when you cannot possibly produce any more with the current technology, and you cannot produce enough to satisfy domestic demand while leaving yourself vulnerable to foreign oil cartels. Peak oil means you need to start importing a large percentage of your oil, as you put yourself at the mercy of your (OPEC) suppliers, who will begin to operate like they have a monopoly on oil. Peak oil was predicted in the late 1950's by the CEO of Shell, believing it would happen in 1972. It actually happened in 1971. Fracking reduced our oil imports from 65% in 2005 to 52% in 2011 (with the U.S. actually exporting more than it imported in 2011).

The U.S. used 20.25B barrels of oil/day in 2023, and imported 8B barrels/day, and exported 4B barrels/day on average. So, we are not independent of foreign oil, but the dependency was half as much as it was in 1975, when 39% of our oil was imported. Back in 1965, only 21% of our oil was imported. So, apparently, 20% imports gives the U.S. plenty of ability to negotiate for good oil prices internationally, while 40% does not.

I've done the equivalent of driving a car into a concrete barrier at 55 mph (thanks to a drunk driver going the wrong way on a freeway). I had to wait until the drunk died before I got medical assistance (the EMT's work on the most badly injured first). Not a day goes by when one of the four surgeries resulting from that crash doesn't cause me pain.

Fortunately, when the oil runs out, it theoretically will not be quite like driving (our economy) into a concrete barrier at 55 mph. But the devastation to the economy will be real, and we will not be able to reverse it before it's too late, if we don't start now. Yes, it would be painful to make the changes, but nowhere near as painful as driving full speed into that concrete barrier. Americans would be helpless sitting in line for gas for hours and hours, waiting for a tanker to pull up and refill the gas station's tanks. Unemployment would go up as American businesses shuttered their doors due to the high cost of transportation as OPEC jacked the price of oil up sky high. We might see a return of our old nemesis stagflation after we tried stimulus for a while to keep the economy afloat. There is nothing that an oil-producing nation would like to see more than their wealthiest customer wasting oil and begging for more at any price.

I don't think that any of that makes me "uppity". It makes me forward-thinking. A lot of people who are backwards-thinking ignore catastrophes until the devastation is upon them. Then they shrug their shoulders and say there isn't anything they could have done, even though that isn't true. Europeans are in a much better position than Americans to weather the peak oil storm, even though they produce very little of their own oil. They have been taxing oil products heavily for decades now. Their people have been forced to make compromises, and they have been educated to understand that wasting natural resources is a bad idea. (They survived.) You sound like an elderly grandpa yelling "I'll give up my 1965 Chevy pickup when you pry the steering wheel out of my dead hands!"

If my "agenda" of not driving into a concrete barrier at full speed is wrong, then I don't want to be right.

 

I work downstream of the petroleum businesses. I work in a plant that uses a product of refineries and turns it into a chemical that's not quite commodity (huge volumes), and not quite specialty (small volumes). (Our products are often used in housing construction and automotive.) I also help out with overseas startups and troubleshooting. I used to work in one of the largest chemical plants in the U.S., taking my turn at research engineering, pilot plant research, and manufacturing.

I am by no means an expert in petroleum engineering or Refinery design or operations. But it is important for me to know where my raw materials are coming from, and where else they are going. I do know that the chemical industry can be resilient under some circumstances, and fragile under others. I don't like to see supply disruptions.