Israel strikes Iran

Oh, and whatever 3D chess this is, how in the world does this help?

 

This is a snippet of findings from the Institute For Science and International Security. It's what they pulled from the latest IAEA report in May:

• Iran can convert its current stock of 60 percent enriched uranium into 233 kg of WGU in three weeks at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), enough for 9 nuclear weapons, taken as 25 kg of weapon-grade uranium (WGU) per weapon.
• Iran could produce its first quantity of 25 kg of WGU in Fordow in as little as two to three days.
• Breaking out in both Fordow and the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP), the two facilities together could produce enough WGU for 11 nuclear weapons in the first month, enough for 15 nuclear weapons by the end of the second month, 19 by the end of the third month, 21 by the end of the fourth month, and 22 by the end of the fifth month.
• In front of the inspectors’ eyes, Iran is undertaking the near-final step of breaking out, now converting its 20 percent stock of enriched uranium into 60 percent enriched uranium at a greatly expanded rate, although this rate cannot be sustained much longer (see below).
• Iran has no civilian use or justification for its production of 60 percent enriched uranium, particularly at the level of hundreds of kilograms. Its rush to make much more, quickly depleting its stock of near 20 percent enriched uranium, which has a civilian use in research reactors, raises more questions. Even if one believed the production of 60 percent is to create bargaining leverage in a nuclear negotiation, Iran has gone way beyond what would be needed. One has to conclude that Iran’s real intent is to be prepared to produce large quantities of WGU as quickly as possible, in as few centrifuges as possible.

Analysis of IAEA Iran Verification and Monitoring Report — May 2025 | Institute for Science and International Security

The IAEA has recently stated as of June 12, 2025:

The draft for Thursday’s resolution highlights serious and growing concerns since at least 2019 that Iran had failed to cooperate fully with the UN agency’s inspectors.

Tehran has “repeatedly” been unable to explain and demonstrate that its nuclear material was not being diverted for further enrichment for military use, the draft text maintains.

Iran has also failed to provide the UN agency with “technically credible explanations for the presence of [man-made] uranium particles” at undeclared locations in Varamin, Marivan and Turquzabad, it continues.

“Unfortunately, Iran has repeatedly either not answered, or not provided technically credible answers to, the agency’s questions,” IAEA chief Grossi said on Monday. “It has also sought to sanitize the locations, which has impeded Agency verification activities.”

Atomic watchdog says Iran not complying with nuclear safeguards

Iran has been ramping up their nuclear weapons stockpile since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct 7th, 2023. It was part of a bigger plan to occupy Israel and the US while they build their first nuclear weapons. This was never about creating energy for their population.

 

Seems they are on a crash program to build nukes as quickly as they can. If they conduct a nuke test in the near term, that may be a game changer and everyone knows it.

 

You’re a very fair poster but not in this case. It was a deal brokered by the US and we, as a principal party, pulled out of it more than 7 years ago and simultaneously placed sanctions on Iran. Iran, while not officially withdrawing from it, started to pay it no heed and exceeded the enrichment limits. And why would they when they were being punished? Yes, I know they had at least one known instance of breaching it prior to that as well.

Was the deal going to stop Iran from enriching uranium? No, of course not. But since you think it was so terrible I’d love to hear what the viable and effective alternatives were short of direct military action.

 

Odd that you refer to my "still" suggesting that, when I never mentioned it in the first place. Clearly though, Iran isn't the only party to cease adhering to the terms of that agreement.

Equally clear; there was disagreement among experts about Iran's status wrt gaining capability to produce nuclear weapons. Just look at statements from the US intelligence community, including Gabbard.

And the most apparent thing, which is, obviously, what I was speaking to, was that Netanyahu forced Trump's hand when Trump wanted to negotiate more. Just look at Trump's statements (below) from appx 2 weeks before the Israeli strikes. Trump even had a very detailed plan of what his deal would look like!


Trump says he warned Israel against attack on Iran as nuclear deal ‘very close’


At a White House press conference on Wednesday, the US president confirmed he held talks last week with Israel and told them it was “not appropriate” to attack Tehran because he believed he could reach a deal within weeks.

“I want it very strong where we can go in with inspectors, we can take whatever we want, we can blow up whatever we want, but nobody getting killed. We can blow up a lab, but nobody is gonna be in a lab, as opposed to everybody being in the lab and blowing it up,” Trump said, adding that he believed he was very close to an agreement.

 

I was commenting on the politics around these attacks. It's very on-topic.