(June 2025) U.S. payrolls increased 139,000 in May, more than expected; unemployment at 4.2%

Mostly because the government has backed down or paused the things people were saying would lead to recession. "TACO" has been Trump's best economic move. The courts might even kill the tariffs altogether.

 

Thankfully Trump keeps backing down which is helping. What happened to all of the right wingers jumping in threads saying "lets wait for the revised numbers" that we used to see every month for 4 years?

The March and April numbers were revised down btw

 

Another underrated development was the SCOTUS saying the Fed was unlike all those other agencies where the president can fire whoever he wants whenever he wants, trying to preempt a fight with the Fed. Will it work? Who knows.

 

They were revised down for the last two months in this case FWIW

 

I think the thread title needs to be adjusted to reflect the 95k in downward revisions for the last two months.

 

Not usually by 95k over those two months (adjustments used to be about 50% up and 50% down, post-Covid, they are about 2/3 down and 1/3 up). That is a pretty massive downward revision.

 

I remember in the Obama years people leaving the work force was supposed to be bad (Republicans were making the argument and questioning the unemployment methodology), that is why unemployment stayed stable. I have no judgement on whether those people exiting the workforce is good or bad. I'm sure there are plenty of federal employees opting for early retirement or siting on their buyouts for awhile and the like.

 

It is funny when you try to deflect by comparing apples (regular adjustments for the prior two months as numbers are finalized) with suspension bridges (data carefully selected from the larger adjustments made during the multi-year adjustment processes that come up every few years to account for new methodologies).

BTW, is there somebody here who can change your thread title to reflect my commentary on the regular monthly adjustments? It is only fair and would increase the accuracy of the thread title....

 

Massive downward revisions to the March and April report, overestimated by 95,000 jobs... I bet this report will be the same...

 

That 139k jobs becomes 44k jobs when you subtract the March and April revisions from it. And if May is revised like March/April, it becomes negative jobs.

 

Yeah, JP Morgan recently reduced the probability of a US recession from 60% to 40%. They also cite Trump's signature "policies" as one of the main reasons for economic weakness.

Of course, the weak jobs report this thread references makes it seem possible that we'll see the likelihood of recession revised back upward.

Good job, Donny?



The probability of a recession has fallen to 40%
May 27, 2025

• J.P. Morgan Research has reduced the probability of a U.S. and global recession occurring in 2025 from 60% to 40%.
• However, a period of sub-par growth could lie ahead, especially as the U.S. tariff shock could still be material.

What Is the Probability of a Recession? | J.P. Morgan Research

 

Kinda goes to show how resilient the US economy is if it can withstand all the uncertainty, incompetence, and wild policy swings of the Trump admin without going into recession. I still think 2025 will be a weak year for the economy. Whether it's a recession year remains to be seen.

 

That happens.

 

The stock market really isn't the same thing as the economy though, is it?*

And you denied all credibility of the JP Morgan report when it referenced headwinds to the economy? Interesting. You haven't been paying attention to Donald Trump's back and forth tariff plan irrational chaos then, I take it?


* To be fair, analysts probably are factoring in another round of the same thing we saw in Trump's first pseudo-presidency; deficit-funded, debt-exploding tax cuts** (mostly to the rich) which will boost the economy in the immediate term, but will obviously have to be paid off later. By someone else, that is. Ya know - the Trump way.


** These tax cuts are also probably expected to fuel gains in the stock market as they will again largely be going to the rich and corporations. We'll probably see a repeat of huge amounts of stock buybacks. Just more evidence that anyone referencing headwinds to the economy, but expecting gains in the stock market has credibility. They've seen this happen before, after all.