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War in Ukraine

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by PITBOSS, Jan 21, 2022.

  1. JustaGator

    JustaGator All American

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    About 5 of those have significant credentials - mostly historical - some of which were known for pro-Russian takes later in life.

    The rest are a grab bag of kooks, half-baked ideas, and accused of selective framing and/or heavily biased takes - many are known for their pro-Russian slant on everything.

    In other words, a cherry picked list to reach a desired outcome which is challenging existing narratives and norms and largely that NATO=bad/Russia=good.

    Hardly a list of experts anyone not looking to bias their takes to a Russia point of view would select.

    In other word, GTFO of here with your shit.
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2025 at 5:27 PM
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  2. ajoseph

    ajoseph Premium Member

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    It’s how disinformation works. Create “authority” that doesn’t exist, and repeat it over and over, and hope some gullible buy in.
     
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  3. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

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    Dear Leader’s flip-flop on Ukraine. So much for his latest “2 weeks” threat.

    “They are going to just keep fighting,” Trump said, using the analogy of children squabbling in a park or hockey players throwing fists before the skirmish is broken up. “Maybe you’re going to have to keep fighting, suffering a lot, because both sides are suffering.”
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2025 at 6:03 PM
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  4. vegasfox

    vegasfox GC Hall of Fame

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    Lightweights compared to who I listen to. Never heard of either one. At least one is associated with the Deep State affiliated Council on Foreign relations. They're nobodies.
     
  5. vegasfox

    vegasfox GC Hall of Fame

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    Baloney. Why don't you tell us which ones you think are legit and which aren't?
     
  6. JustaGator

    JustaGator All American

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    Here is what I would propose for experts in the fields in question: high-credible figures from leading institutions who have highly differing, but balanced opinions - who also have evidence and facts to back them up.

    All of whom who are widely cited, not Glenn Beck's "favorite Middle Eastern expert" or "#1 FP podcast in the world".

    Might as well light your list on fire with those assertions, because I'd wipe my ass with it otherwise.

    # / Name / Area of Expertise/ Viewpoint - Approach / Affiliation
    1. Michael Kofman / Russian military doctrine, war strategy / Analytical, data-driven, pragmatic / Carnegie Endowment; CNA
    2. Fiona Hill / U.S.-Russia policy, Putinism / Tough on Russia, but rooted in scholarship / Brookings; former NSC official
    3. Stephen Walt / Realism, U.S. grand strategy / Realist; skeptical of U.S. interventionism and NATO expansion / Harvard Kennedy School
    4. Hal Brands / Grand strategy, Cold War parallels / Mainstream conservative strategist; supports strong deterrence / Johns Hopkins SAIS
    5. Angela Stent / Russian foreign policy / Balanced, institutionally informed / Georgetown; Brookings
    6. Emma Ashford / Energy policy, realism, restraint in foreign policy / Critical of U.S. overreach; realist-libertarian lean / Stimson Center; formerly Cato
    7. Ivo Daalder / NATO, diplomacy, multilateralism / Pro-NATO, institutionalist / Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO
    8. Dmitri Trenin / Russian strategy (critical insider) / Russian perspective, but not propagandistic / Former Director, Carnegie Moscow Center
    9. Thomas Graham / U.S.-Russia diplomacy / Deep realist, emphasizes dialogue and restraint / Council on Foreign Relations
    10. Kimberly Marten / Russian paramilitary, gray-zone conflict / Research-focused, skeptical of Wagner & hybrid warfare / Barnard College, Columbia
    11. Lawrence Freedman / Strategy, military history, nuclear policy / Establishment, highly respected, methodical / King's College London
    12. Alina Polyakova / Russian influence ops, European security / Pro-democracy, anti-authoritarian, Atlanticist / CEPA
    13. Rajan Menon / U.S. foreign policy, Ukraine, humanitarian strategy / Realist-leaning, but not cynical / CUNY; co-author Conflict in Ukraine
    14. Sarah Kreps / Drones, defense innovation, cyber strategy / Empirical, tech-focused, not ideological / Cornell University
    15. Timothy Snyder / History of authoritarianism, Eastern Europe / Human rights-focused, anti-authoritarian / Yale University
    16. Charles Kupchan / Transatlantic relations, U.S. grand strategy / Cautious internationalist; supports strategic restraint / Georgetown; Council on Foreign Relations
    17. Rosa Brooks / Civil-military relations, legal frameworks of war / Nuanced on military power, human rights-oriented / Georgetown Law; former DoD official
    18. Ivan Krastev / Eastern European politics, democratic backsliding / Central/Eastern European voice; critical thinker on populism and Russia / Institute for Human Sciences (Vienna)
    19. Barry Posen / Military strategy, balance of power, restraint / Leading proponent of U.S. strategic retrenchment / MIT; author of Restraint: A New Foundation for U.S. Grand Strategy
    20. Liana Fix / Germany, NATO, Russia policy / European perspective; emphasizes alliance cohesion and diplomacy / Council on Foreign Relations; formerly Körber Foundation
    21 Kathryn Stoner / Russian domestic politics, authoritarianism / Institutional expert on Russian regime dynamics / Director, Center on Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law, Stanford
    22 Robert D. Kaplan / Geopolitics, strategic forecasting / Eurasia Realist, geographic determinism; long-term view / Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Research Institute; author of The Revenge of Geography
    23 Kori Schake / Military strategy, NATO, U.S. alliances / Conservative internationalist, strong NATO supporter Director of Foreign and Defense Policy / AEI; former NSC and DoD
    24 Carl Bildt / European diplomacy, Russia-EU relations / Former Swedish PM; deeply informed European statesman / European Council on Foreign Relations; former UN envoy
    25 Ivan Timofeev / Russian foreign policy, U.S.-Russia relations / Russia-based analyst; doesn’t always toe Kremlin line / Director of Programs, Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC)
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2025 at 6:24 PM
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  7. JustaGator

    JustaGator All American

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    The good:

    Cohen - well-regarded, but who became controversial later in life because of appearing overly sympathetic to Russian narratives that NATO expansion is the root cause of US-Russia tensions and of his rehabilitation of Putin's image when the guy murders anyone he disagrees with.

    Mearsheimer (note spelling) - good - but controversial takes on NATO/Russia, again with the b.s. that NATO (a defensive alliance) provoked the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    Baud - less peer-reviewed/academic output - accused of selective framing - especially with his claims that NATO expansion caused Russia to invade in 2022.

    Burnham and Possony are both fine, but since they are dead 38 and 30 years, respectively, can hardly contribute to current events.

    The biased:
    Pipes, Mercouris, Ritter (the pedo), Bodansky, Narwani

    The garbage:
    Martyanov, Escobar, Copley, de Borchgrave (dead also), Berhard at Moon of Alabama (Really?), Lira (and his highly-politicized death from pneumonia in Ukrainian detention.)
     
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  8. JustaGator

    JustaGator All American

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    The problem is exactly that: "I listen to", instead of "I read".

    You aren't going to get many balanced and fair takes on the internet because the coin of the realm is largely exaggerated or outright false takes to generate controversy for views.

    If you'd started your education in books and remained in them, your worldview would be much different, because a published work will have editors.

    This is exactly the main problem with sourcing your information from the internet without the benefit of a college degree where you were taught to read many sources, think critically about them, and have a balanced understanding of different viewpoints.

    MAGA is the epitome of this dynamic which is driving this country to disaster.

    Unknowingly source my worldview from what FOX News tells me, find agreeing opinions on the internet (confirmation bias) and from like-minded people who did the same, think I have formed a worldview that has merit, and off to political football I go - to the continuing detriment to myself, my family, my community and my country.
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2025 at 6:50 PM
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  9. CaptUSMCNole

    CaptUSMCNole Premium Member

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    Thank you for saving me a post.
     
  10. vaxcardinal

    vaxcardinal GC Hall of Fame

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  11. CaptUSMCNole

    CaptUSMCNole Premium Member

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    Yup the people that were in the G-5/J-5 on JTF’s and Combined Joint staffs and multiple tours attending and teaching JPME have no real understanding of Strategy compared to some dude with an internet website that has had no realistic experience in the last 40+ years.

    Maybe of you could say which countries subscribe to his GIS, I could ask some of their Intel Officers I work with their thoughts on his service.
     
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  12. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Ukraine's defense industries say that they can make a lot more weapons than they are currently making--about 3-4 times more. What they need is money. The capabilities of Ukraine's defense industries have increased by a factor of 35 since the war started (from $1 billion to $35 billion). They only have contracts to make $11.5 billion worth of weapons, but think they have the potential to make as much as $45 billion in weapons. Maybe Europe could provide a combination of cash and loans to make it happen.

    Ukraine's industry can make way more weapons than the country can buy. Industry figures say there's a simple fix to unlocking its potential.

     
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  13. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    That will show them. Teach them to make their own new age battle tested weapons to market to the rest of the world. That will guarantee our defense industry is setting the standard...as the world dumps f-35s
     
  14. vegasfox

    vegasfox GC Hall of Fame

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    You mentioned the 5 Eyes previously. Ask them who Greg Copley is. You know what AUKUS is. Talk to them. By the way, Copley has studied Asian grand strategy with Tommy Koh (Singapore) who some considered the greatest non-communist Asian strategic thinker.

    While Copley has been called "the only fully conscious grand syrategist in the West by the head of the US Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare, you counter with a couple of possible diversity hires, at least one of wom I can connect to the Council on Foreign Relations with it's Deep State/ Rockerfeller/Soros/Bill Gates Sr/globalist/nation-building/psy-op links. What a cesspool of corruption.

    Just out of curiosity I wondered if your 2 speakers were lesbians but Grok 3 had no family info given their overall "lack of footprint." They're nobodies connected to losers and corrupt actors. One of them was involved in "nation-building" in Afghanistan and Libya. That worked out well, including the opening of an open-air slave market in Libya.

    You say Copley has no realistic experience in 40+ years. I can see why you want to avoid talking about his younger days, but he's still very active, meeting with Ukrainian generals, mediating the water dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia that involves Blue Nile water diversion to Sudan. From 1996-2020 Copley was honored by the Imperial Ethiopian Crown, receiving The Grand Collar of the Imperial Order of the Holy Trinity, the Knight Grand Cordon of the Ethiopian Lion, the Royal Medal of the Lion and more. In 2020 the Crown, gave Copley the honorary hereditary title of Marquess of Tana. Copley even served as a monitor of the 2023 Uzbek election. I remember him talking about his meeting with the director of Pakistan's iSI when he was mentioning who really funded the Taliban.


    Edited for brevity to comply with the 4 paragraph rule:

    "Apart from his open information and other activities, he has, since the early 1970s, been heavily involved in classified strategic analysis and operations for governments worldwide. This has involved the preparation of strategic philosophies for the restoration of elected government in certain countries, including input into the preparation of constitutions and electoral processes. It has, on numerous occasions, involved urgent work of a practical and political nature to halt existing conflicts or to prevent the imminent outbreak of hostilities. He has worked with several governments on the design and creation of intelligence agencies and communities.

    Mr Copley, through Defense & Foreign Affairs, also undertakes special conferences and seminars for very senior political, government and defense personnel, often at cabinet or head-of-service level, on how to cope with current and projected strategic crises. He has personally also acted as an adviser on national planning issues to a number of governments at Head-of-Government or Cabinet level."


    ...


    In General:

    [Copley] has chaired dozens of conferences and seminars on strategic issues, and spoken at these and many other international conferences on defense and strategic issues around the world. He has lectured extensively on psychological strategy, grand strategy and intelligence matters to a wide range of professional audiences in classified and unclassified sessions in various countries [notably the US, UK, Germany, Singapore, Sweden, Taiwan, South Africa, Egypt, India, Pakistan, Japan, Australia, Nigeria, etc.]. He lectured on several occasions to the US Air Force School of Special Operations, for example. Mr Copley has been invited on several occasions to testify before the US Congress and notably provided key testimony to the US House of Representatives Hearings on Nigeria, relating to that country’s constitutional crisis and human rights, in August 1993. He also authored a study, Nigeria’s New Government, when President Ibrahim Babangida came to office. In 1998, he undertook two major briefings to the US Congress (including one to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee) on changes in Africa. He has also provided testimony to the Australian Parliament.

    Gregory Copley became concerned with the decline of shipbuilding in Britain during the 1970s and 1980s, and felt that the decline had, by the 1980s, begun to eat into the core capability of Britain’s maritime capabilities. As a result, he set out, in 1987, to save from closure the Clyde, Scotland, shipbuilding facility, Ailsa Shipbuilders. The Ailsa company, which became the Ailsa-Perth Group, was founded by the Marquess of Ailsa in 1885. The Scottish Ailsa-Perth shipyard was sold in February-March 1996, once it became clear that the company — and the craft of shipbuilding in Britain — was once again secure. In 1994, his Ailsa-Perth Group acquired the former Royal Docks at Chatham, near London, and Ailsa-Perth Marine Ltd. — of which Mr Copley was Chairman — which were actively involved in the repair, refit and construction of ships and large yachts. The Chatham Royal Docks, founded in 1554, was the site of the construction of Viscount Horatio Nelson’s flagship, HMS Victory. Mr Copley sold up his shipbuilding interests in 1997 to focus more completely on his international relations activities."

    Vegasfox:
    In the book The Conservative Decade: Emerging Leaders of the 1980s, the author James C. Roberts had this to say of Copley:

    “Gregory R. Copley, at age 33, is already the potentate of his own mini-empire of foreign affairs concerns. A native of Australia ... Copley manages a thriving Washington-based enterprise ... He does much of the writing himself, displaying a literate style and an encyclopedic knowledge of international and strategic realities as he threads his way through matters as diverse as the coup in Afghanistan and the RAF’s newest fighter plane. Surveying Copley’s enterprises, it can be said that his activities are as far-flung as those of the US State Department and that his grasp of world realities is vastly superior.”
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2025 at 4:46 AM
  15. vaxcardinal

    vaxcardinal GC Hall of Fame

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    Brevity?
     
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  16. vaxcardinal

    vaxcardinal GC Hall of Fame

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    Funny thing about my meetings with the 5-eyes…people have asked if I’m paying attention because at times I ask questions about something that was just clearly explained…my response…because I’m hoping someone else will provide an answer because I have a hard time understanding their accents. The Canadians are the easiest to understand
     
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  17. CaptUSMCNole

    CaptUSMCNole Premium Member

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    Did you know that the ISI was the one funding the Taliban?!?!?! Good thing Copley finally cracked that case! Must take a master grand strategist to figure that one out.
     
  18. CaptUSMCNole

    CaptUSMCNole Premium Member

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    What does their sexual orientation have to do with their professional background? That is an extremely weird thing to bring up.

    I’ve know a Canadian Major going through their Command and Staff Course. I’ll ask him if he or the staff have ever heard of Copley.
     
  19. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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    Just perusing X I get the sense that the euphoria, from destroying three Stalin era bombers, is wearing off …

     
  20. vegasfox

    vegasfox GC Hall of Fame

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    I like to know everything