Projections found in tweet (which is apparently needed as a thread now can't be started with just the report). Less people with health insurance. Much higher deficits. Big cuts to Medicaid. Estimated Budgetary Effects of H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act
MAGA Republicans are claiming the CBO is biased based on campaign contributions by its employees while ignoring the fact that its Director is a Republican who worked as an Assistant Secretary of the Treasury during the Bush Administration and has a long history of donations to Republican candidates.
When it comes to deficit projections the CBO tends to be more accurate than presidential administrations. Not surprisingly it's short term estimates are more accurate than it's longer term (more than two years) estimates although that's true of economic projections in general regardless of the source.
I assume that he was referring to the massive tax cut bill in Trump's first administration. The CBO actually underestimated the impact of the bill on the deficits. It was much higher. According to CBO’s and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation's (JCT) estimates, enacting H.R. 1 would reduce revenues by about $1,649 billion and decrease outlays by about $194 billion over the period from 2018 to 2027, leading to an increase in the deficit of $1,455 billion over the next 10 years. Those estimates do not incorporate the effects of macroeconomic feedback. Cost Estimate for the Conference Agreement on H.R. 1
Yes, Trump enacted tax cuts during his first term. You must have missed it. This might help out. Trump added $8.4 trillion to the national debt: Analysis Tax cuts and pandemic relief measures enacted during the Trump administration added $8.4 trillion to the national debt over the 10-year budget window, according to a study released Wednesday by a top budget watchdog group. Discretionary spending increases from 2018 and 2019 added $2.1 trillion, Trump’s signature Tax Cuts and Jobs Act added $1.9 trillion and the 2020 bipartisan CARES Act for pandemic relief added another $1.9 trillion, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a Washington think tank, found in a study released earlier this month. https://thehill.com/business/4426965-trump-added-8-4-trillion-to-the-national-debt-analysis/
Poor at best. They don't take growth into consideration. REALITY LET THE AIR OUT OF THE BALLOON ON CBO’S INFLATION REDUCTION ACT’S “DEFICIT REDUCTION” President Biden’s so-called “Inflation Reduction Act” was initially supposed to reduce the deficit by approximately $58.1 billion over the 2022–2031 budget window, plus approximately $200 billion in additional revenues from increased IRS enforcement efforts. However, a February 2024 outlook substantially revised the portion of the law pertaining to energy tax credits. According to CBO, a variety of factors led to a projected increase in the cumulative deficit over the 10-year budget window by $428 billion, more than half of which—$224 billion—is “from revised projections of amounts claimed for clean vehicle tax credits and of revenues from excise taxes on gasoline” contained in the Inflation Reduction Act.46 Another $204 billion in deficit increases is due to other energy-related tax provisions, such as incentives for wind, solar, battery manufacturing, and more. This act—originally expected to reduce the deficit—has been recategorized as a major deficit-hiking series of initiatives, which the CBO failed to anticipate. Scoring CBO’s Scores: Ten of the Worst CBO Blunders of the 21st Century So Far
Just because you are willing to fall for this the 4th (or more?) time in 40 years doesn't mean anybody else is. But yes - tax cuts are going to increase growth so dramatically that they pay for themselves. Finally. This time.
I had a thread previously closed for linking to a Harvard Professor's analysis of BLS data until I linked to a comment that a verified twitter account made in response to the report...
Based on its apparent systemic errors of the past, if anything the CBO's error most likely would be underestimating rather than overestimating the impact of Trump's Big Beautiful Bill on the increase in the future debt and deficits as it was back in 2017 with Trump's first tax cut bill. In simple terms Trump's bill will probably explode the debt and deficit more than the CBO is projecting.
