War in Ukraine

Are you familiar with the treaty that requires us and Russia to park nuclear capable in open for compliance? Read it and tell me if that changes your matrix

 

Russians have long ago learned to disregard the idiocy of Russian mil-bloggers. Westerners would be more curious about a stupid statement like that.

 

Now that we agree, what are odds that Trump is telling people I tried to warn Putin like it was his trigger to pull, without saying it explicitly of course

 

If accurate, that’s not a good development at all.

 

Putin cannot liquidate one of his oligarchs' bank accounts without serious repercussions. The other oligarchs would be very concerned and angry. Then there would either be a move to liquidate Putin, or liquidate their bank accounts and move out of Russia with whatever money they can smuggle out. And don't forget that the oligarchs control all of Russia's important industries, including weapons and ammo manufacturing, and transportation. If those industries fall apart, the war is over. And you better be sure that the oligarchs know all of the keys to making their industry work and how to disable them if their personal future looks bleak. Also, Russia is already dealing with a severe labor shortage and crumbling infrastructure. Putin cannot afford to stir up trouble with his oligarchs. So, no, liquidating oligarch bank accounts is not a good idea.

This is a big deal, especially as the war grinds on and things like aircraft become more worn out and less reliable. Russia is probably poor enough by now that Putin has to prioritize which equipment to replace, and he can't replace all of these planes. Even if he could afford to, it would take a long time. He will just have to fight this war short-handed on long-range bombers.

 

They did not tell us about it because if they did, then the US could tell them we prefer that they do not do it. And since they rely on us so much for a lot of targeting intel and logistical support, they know better than to put themselves in a position where the US has told them not to do something and then do it anyway. If we have never told them No, they can tell us that we understand you are not happy about it but we were not aware that it would upset you.

 

U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces Under New START | Arms Control Association

it may be incorrect, Visible parking is no longer required for compliance methods unless wartime , when compliance not possible, maybe there is a requirement. reading different things at different places

 

1. Russia signs treaty with U.S. to park jets outside
2. U.S. ally attacks Russian jets parked ... outside
3. what happens next??

 

I was about to comment on this. Without getting too deeply into it, “nuclear capable” isn’t really an issue either. Almost every fighter aircraft we have, for instance, is “nuclear capable.” Some of you may recall one of the many times that Russia warned/threatened us was over giving Ukraine F-16s because they were “nuclear capable.” B-52s, for instance, have always been capable of being armed with nuclear weapons, but if they were not assigned to Strategic Air Command and not rigged for strategic missions, then they didn’t fall under those rules. These Russian bombers in question had been regularly flying conventional missions against Ukraine with conventional weapons. The hue and cry of “boo hoo hoo, those planes were on nuclear alert!” just isn’t going to wash with anyone who has even a basic understanding of these things.

 

Your post confuses me for a number of reasons. First, you won’t find any posts of mine asserting that Russia was about to run out of any munition; you will find several challenging other posters as to how they would have any idea how big Russia’s stockpiles are, how fast they were going through them, or how efficiently they were replacing them. Second, the number of their “capable” jets is not an issue I raised. I merely pointed out that taking out 40 of their bombers, which they have used regularly to make conventional attacks on Ukraine, is more than just an informational win as you suggested.

 

Sometimes it's better to ask for forgiveness instead of permission . . .

 

could russia let the nuclear power plant go and cause a meltdown as retaliation or do they value it too high?

 

That’s quite a risk. Which way are the winds going to blow? Who can say to a certainty?

 

what do you think he does? anything less than spectacular will be seen as a sign of weakness

 

No idea. But it will fall short of spectacular. And it will absolutely be a sign of weakness.

 

Not to mention that would be "scorch the earth", which happens *after* admitting defeat but b4 retreating--which simply does not appear on the horizon. Yet, perhaps, but we're simply no where near such a point.

....but IF that happens... id take that as an imminent sign of Russia's impending retreat.

(...and Putin too proud to give AF about which way radioactivity might blow--his only concern would be to sell his ppl on the notion that it was the vicious, nasty, evil facist Ukies what dun it, if the winds blew east...).

 

Russia pulled out of the treaty in February of 2023 so it doesn’t even matter if there was such a requirement.

 

I think the point about this being more than an informational win is brought home in a major way by two podcasts. Here is the June 1st version: The June 2nd podcast alleges Putin has disappeared and that there is serious internal damage, not just the damage to 40 or 41 planes

 

We still receive the data as required by the treaty

 

People: “Trump is Hitler 2.0!”

Same people: “We need to pour more weapons into Ukraine because we’re defending freedom!”

Ukraine "Stinks Of Authoritarianism" - Kiev Mayor Klitschko Hits Out At Zelensky | ZeroHedge