The Feds preferred index is at its lowest level since March 2021: Core Inflation Falls To Lowest Rate In Four Years Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) MSN It looks like the American people knew better than the Fed and the Wall Street so called experts/professionals when they voted Trump back into office. Fed Chair Powell and that democrat fruit cake Austin Goolsby are crying stagflation. Instead, we have real wage growth combined with low inflation: Core prices, a measure that excludes food and energy, also rose 0.1 percent. Over the past year, core prices are up 2.5 percent, the smallest year-over-year increase since March of 2021. Winning.
Plummeting demand will keep near term prices low. Cost are expected to rise in June / July... not May and April. US Consumers Hit the Brakes While Goods Imports Sink by a Record - Bloomberg
We also had some bulk buying that occurred in Jan/Feb in anticipation of tariffs. Which meant extra supply coupled with the lower demand. Let's see where the summer numbers are before celebrating.
“Howard W. Lutnick serves as the 41st United States Secretary of Commerce. During President Trump’s 2024 election campaign, he was the Co-Chair of the Trump-Vance Transition Team.” Howard Lutnick
To illustrate how good this number is, 0.1% annualizes to 1.2% and April wasn't an anomaly. It was a continuation of the trend which had already developed in the preceding months. Such a trend points to <2% inflation over the remainder of 2025.
After having the democrats compounded never ending inflation, this is welcome news. Now, if the Feds would do for Trump what they did for Biden(s), whomever was actually part of the unconstitutional office of the president, they would play fair and cut rates 75 to 100 basis points down to 3.25% to 3.5%. However, the Fed is obstructionist just like the rogue overreaching federal district court judges and the do-nothing democrats in the congress. There is zero chance the Feds aren't political animals with a left rooting side. In this case, they won't lower rates just to slowdown Trump's efforts to Make America Great Again. I'll dance in the street when that SOB Jerome Powell has his term end in 2026. Me? Shutdown the filibuster in the senate and road grade the last of what is left of the lousy democrat socialist/communist agenda. Ending the filibuster is exactly what the democrats planned to do had they won the 2024 presidential election so they could pack the SCOTUS and pass a federal abortion law to start the final destruction of America as founded. No sane person would want this, but that is what we would have already had in a Harris Administration.
The Fed is smart enough to realize disruptions in international supply chains take months for the effects to be felt. Lower rates now and if the tariffs raise prices over the summer by large rates, we're in a bad spot. If the tariffs don't raise prices over the summer, you'll see the Feds cut rates then.
This is good news but as City points out demand is falling. That’s why my company is seeing reduced steel costs but our product demand will also likely fall. So far our commercial customers are still buying without demand but that will curtail unless the end consumer starts buying again.
Feels like we're hurdling off a cliff that's gonna be next to impossible to avoid. The only question is how high the cliff / fall is going to be. It would be nice to think we could look towards leadership at times like this, but alas it's leadership that's put us here and the same leadership asking the sane people to help them find a higher cliff.
LOL! This is timely: MSN The Fed is planning for 2 rate cuts in 2025. Glad to make you chuckle, but I happen to be right as well. Two rate cuts will get the Fed Reserve Rate down to where it should be in the 3.25% to 3.50% range. Winning. Good times are coming.
An economic agenda is very difficult for a president to implement, because of so many variables outside of his/her control. But the Trump administration is obviously pushing the right buttons to bring inflation down to a healthy level. This despite predictions of the opposite, due to tariffs, by the usual suspects. If he solves immigration and inflation, not only were those his two biggest campaign promises, but I can’t think of many other things this country so desperately needed for its future prosperity. For that, we should all be grateful for President Donald J Trump and his leadership.
