(May 2025) US Retail Sales Surprises To The Upside -- PPI Reports Good Too

Sales went from 1.7% (March) growth to 0.1% (April) growth due to purchases pulled ahead into March, but because the expectation was actually 0.0% you are running with “Surprises to the upside!” as the headline. That seems honest?

I guess at least they didn’t tank. To be honest I might’ve assumed the pull ahead effect to be quite bit greater since it was talked about by everyone (like a +/-3 or something more like that), but the economists who do this for a living pretty much had it right on at 0.0%. Being off by .1% isn’t much of a surprise.

 

So funny to see those who acted like the world was ending in last year's economy and called all the government reports fake start to become cheer leaders over a small point in this hectic economy of uncertainty like its cranking and providing strong signals. LOL.

 

Good points, but the very best thing ever was how those same people would fight to the death to assert that under Obama, economic statistics were literally fake.

I think that will never be topped. Though the Trump worshippers are magnificent, and it will be hilarious to watch how many of the current glazers pretend, in four years, that they really didn't even support him.

It's a shame how dishonest rewrites of history like that seem to work. I guess if enough people believe the lie ...... or liar.

 

Someone should change the title and add: "Down to last month though" at the end.

 

To be fair, OP isn’t the poster that kept posting his wife’s tales from the grocery store; that poster added a “1” to the end of their username.

 

I would add that one of the reasons if not the primary reason for the increase in retail sales is that consumers have moved up to purchases to avoid the likely future tariffs. Keep in mind that the tariffs will not just affect the prices of products manufactured abroad they will also increase the prices of products manufactured in the US that include inputs from countries subject to the tariffs.

 

That was the given reason for a strong March @ 1.7%. April took a hit. April may have still been some pull ahead just to keep it at 0.1% instead of more neg? Who knows.

 

consumption is tanking

remember that is the consumer that drive the overwhelming % of our economy

U.S. consumer sentiment plunges to lowest since pandemic amid rising anxieties over tariffs - CBS News


Consumer sentiment fell sharply in April, marking the fourth consecutive month of declines, as an intensifying trade war fueled anxiety over American jobs and rising inflation.

The University of Michigan's closely watched consumer sentiment index, released Friday, fell 11% to 50.8, the lowest since the depths of the pandemic.

"The further fall in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April along with the rise in both one- and five-year inflation expectations, suggests that the tariff-related fears which had soured sentiment over the past couple of months are here to stay," said Harry Chambers, assistant economist, Capital Economics, in a research note.

The decline was "pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region, and political affiliation," said Joanne Hsu, director of the survey.

 

To be fair. Consumption hasnt really fallen yet, just slowed a bit in April. The consumer has said they are broke for 5 years with consumer sentiment results but continued to spend. I think the consumer is currently disconnected from reality. When you follow up with them they say "Me and my neighbors are doing well but there are a lot of people who arent".

When prices raise that's when we will see it. In my amateur opinion.

 

lagging but coming

one of our clients has multiple car dealerships across multiple states. micro numbers showed a big drop in optional service items, ie air filters and windshield wipers, consumers at dealers were cutting way back on. Honda, Lexus, Toyota, Lincoln dealerships. anecdotal info

Credit card 90-day delinquencies rise to record: report | Payments Dive

The percentage of credit card accounts at large banks that were past due by 90 days, or more, climbed to a 12-year high in the fourth quarter last year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

 

To use a weather analogy, we're just seeing the outer bands of a big hurricane hitting the US. Landfall and the biggest impact from the tariffs are expected starting in June through July. Those numbers will be the most telling. And consumption may fall by default if there are significant supply drops due to ports being empty the last few weeks. Only time will tell.

 

Nice try I guess

 

Consumer sentiment the second lowest on record.

Consumer sentiment slides to second-lowest on record as inflation expectations jump after tariffs