Crunching the Numbers: Florida Gators vs. Massachusetts Minutemen

The Florida Gators are 1-0. It may not have been pretty. It certainly wasn’t sexy. And you may have left with more questions than answers.

Certainly, you can look back on the game this past Saturday and have expected more offensive firepower, better execution on defense, and more points on the scoreboard. Perhaps, you expected Luke Del Rio to light to field on fire. Maybe you expected the Gators to look better in their running game. And you definitely expected the Gators to play better on the offensive line. And man, those penalties – those have got to go, right?

The fact that you have all of these questions is fine. Pontificating on areas of improvement is healthy.

But maybe, just maybe, the game wasn’t as bad as it seemed. Let’s take a look at the numbers.

Luke Del Rio

Before we look at the numbers, let me quickly take a look at Luke Del Rio.

For the last nine months, Luke Del Rio’s name has been thrown around as the savior of an offense that seemingly was running fluidly until the loss of Will Grier last season and then went off the rails. He was expected by fans to be a gunslinger.

And as many of us have been telling you for months – he’s not.

And you know what? That’s OK. Why? Because he is exactly what the Florida Gators need right now.

The Gators are not built, yet, to be a team that can fling the ball all over the field. They are not built for multiple 100-yard a game receivers. They are not built to be an offensive juggernaut. What they are built for is, is seemingly what Del Rio did on Saturday.

He had good pocket presence. He didn’t make mistakes. He went through his progressions. And those are all things that did not exist in the second half of the season.

Moreover, for those of you that think Will Grier was a world-beater. Remember, that he had only one game with a higher completion percentage than Luke Del Rio as a starter and only had two games with a higher QB rating. Further, for every Ole Miss game that is brought up, where everything clicked, remember there was first an ECU and Kentucky game that he threw a combined 23-for-39 for 276 yards with only two touchdowns and two interceptions.

I know some of you want more, and I think you will get more. But let the season play out a bit more. You are judging a player on a game where he played his started his first game in three years, in the pouring down rain, with a team that had six healthy wide receivers. I say give it some time and let’s have his discussion in, at the earliest, October.

Offense

The Gators did not look great on offense, but it is tough to see exactly where they went wrong.

Total offensive numbers were relatively pedestrian – 3.69 yards per carry and 256 yards passing for a total of 4.97 yards per play, which is lower than the 5.11 yards per play they averaged last season. In fact, the Gators only had less than 4.97 yards six times last season.

A few things:

• After the game, Jim McElwain mentioned the lack of “explosive plays”. He’s right. Only 11 plays went for more than 10 yards, which ranked 94^th nationally, and only 3 went for more than 20 yards, 85^th in the country.
• When you look at Del Rio’s numbers 65.9% completion percentage, you see that he started off strong, hit a wall, and then bounced back nicely. Del Rio had a strong 8-for-11, 71 yard with a touchdown first quarter. The second quarter he was a more pedestrian 10-for-18 for 59 yards. However, in the second half he bounced back nicely going 11-for-15 for 126 yards and one touchdown.
• Looking beyond completion percentage, you have to look at the second and third quarter and wonder why Del Rio only averaged 3.84 yards per attempt (6.4 yards per completion). In the first and fourth quarter, Del Rio averaged a combined 8.4 yards per attempt (11.4 yards per completion). What happened in the second and third quarter? Well, in the second quarter it poured down rain, so lets move on from there. In the third quarter, the Gators only ran 11 plays, which is unacceptable.
• The 44 passes Del Rio had in the game is the most the Gators have thrown in a game since 2014 against Kentucky.
• Jordan Scarlett looks to be your running back. He ad 13 carries for 70 yards for a solid 5.38 yards per carry, which is the second best game he has had in his career. The rest of the stable of running backs looked pretty average.
• Receiving Brandon Powell, with 73 yards, had his second best career game. Also his seven receptions are a career high. He also had his fifth career receiving touchdown.
• With Florida being hobbled with receivers only eight total players caught a ball on Saturday, compared to last season where 14 players did in the opening game.
• Florida had a decent third down conversion percentage (53%), which is substantially higher than their 36.41% last year. Keeping that number high will determine how their record goes. Del Rio was 5-for-10 passing on third down.
• Two areas to monitor with Del Rio are his passing on the Gators 1-20 yard line and 20-1 yard line of the opponent. During the game he was 1-3 for 9 yards and 1-4 for 12 yards, respectively. Del Rio is going to need to improve in his pressure situations to avoid being pinned deep or forcing throws to score a touchdown.
• More on the offensive line coming later in the week on the boards.

Defense

The Gators defense was stout, as expected, except for two big plays against Chris Williamson and really only one drive bit them – but that they were only playing UMass. But no matter whom they were playing, the fact that the Gators only gave up 187 yards in the game is incredible. The 3.6 yards per play average that UMass had was better than every game but two last season.

• Big shout out to Jabari Zuniga who played in his first game, wreaked havoc all game, and had two big sacks for 10 yards. In total, the Gators had four total sacks, which they only did four times last season.
• The Minutemen were only 1-for-11 on third down, which was a mixture of great defense and great coverage. On third down, UMass had -8 yards rushing on six carries.
• On that note, the Gators only allowed 1.31 yards per carry on 35 carries (46 yards) – and if you take away their two longest runs of seven and eight yards, their average carry was 0.93 yards per carry.
• UMass had 77 yards of passing against Chris Williamson on two plays and 64 yards against the rest of the Gator secondary throughout the game. I do not think all is lost with Williamson, but I think the loss of Jalen Tabor allowed that drive to happen (along with penalties – more on that later).

Miscellaneous

Every week, this is where we will talk about kicking, penalties, and other random things that I find entertaining.

• Eddy Pineiro’s three field goals (really, four) with a 100% success rate is the first time they have done that since 2014 against Eastern Michigan.
• Pineiro’s 49-yard field goal was the longest the Gators have had since 2014 against FSU (and it looked good from about 69 yards).
• Johnny Townsend averaged more then 40 yards per punt for the 28^th time in his career
• The Gators had eight penalties for 80 yards. They also allowed UMass to get four first downs from those penalties, which is the most they have allowed since 2013 against LSU. Furthermore, they had two penalties that saved UMass’ drive on third downs to allow them to score a touchdown. Careless.

What Does It Mean?

Ultimately, this game probably doesn’t mean much if we are being frank. The Gators won, as they were expected to, and it wasn’t nearly as close as the final score looked – even though it was tied 7-7 at one point.

But, it does mean a few things and let’s look at those.

• The Gators really need to improve on penalties, especially the careless, drive continuing ones.
• Del Rio will need to figure out how to improve on his yards per attempt/completion – I think getting back Tyrie Cleveland and C’yontai Lewis will help.
• Jordan Scarlett is likely your main running back. Remember, Jim McElwain has really only ever had a running back by committee once in his career – I do not believe this is the second time.
• Ultimately, stats only tell part of the story and after one game they don’t say much. Things will become more clear in a few weeks.