Wins against ranked opponents

Discussion in 'Swamp Gas' started by slayerxing, May 15, 2014.

  1. gatorev12
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    gatorev12 Well-Known Member

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    I really don't think it's much of a coincidence that on many sports publications, Florida is middle of the pack when it comes to ranking the top SEC coaching staffs. Muschamp is certainly middle of the pack when it comes to wins and wins against ranked opponents.

    We are what our record says it is. Muschamp even said that this past season. To his credit, he isn't making excuses. We shouldn't go out of our way to make ones for him either.
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  2. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    My mistake. I must have had strength of schedule on my mind from another thread and didn't get that you were saying Nebraska and Vandy had their roster impacted like we did.

    Green, DJ, Halapio, Moore, Dunker. Five starter quality OL who lost some to all of last season.

    Just on the OL.

    Two top QBs. Starting RB. Top deep receiving threat and KR. Two top TE recruits in the nation from 2011.

    That's 12 players who should be getting most of the snaps on offense who couldn't play most of our season.

    I haven't checked what happened at Nebraska or Vandy, but I'd be surprised if it was really comparable.

    And that doesn't include probably the best DT in the country in Easley, plus Roberson, Washington, Morrison, Anzalone, Rolin and Jeremi Powell all missed multiple games... Most of the season for most of those guys. And Taylor, Bullard, RoPo, Jacobs and Riggs all missed a game where an already depleted defense was really impacted (Mizzou and GA Southern).

    We had over 20 players lose several games to most of the season, and several more players who missed at least one game.

    Again, I could be wrong but I really doubt Nebraska or Vandy or anyone else lost that many. If they lost half as many it would be news. And maybe that's what happened?
    Last edited: May 18, 2014
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  3. slayerxing
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    slayerxing Premium Member

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    Not to split hairs, but...

    Dunker wasn't an injury. Calling Debose our top deep threat is sort of an exaggeration since he barely played the year before, although the KR thing is legit. (although Patton did well there). Riggs missed a game because of a stupid penalty. Powell was a special teamer. Rolin was not expected to play at all. I think the biggest issue is that UF was down to it's 3rd QB. How many teams in the country were down to their 3rd QB?
  4. slayerxing
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    slayerxing Premium Member

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    Also - the Miami game, I checked it, and UF did do a lot of random substitutions in that game do to OL injuries. In the later parts of the 2nd half, the OL was Garcia at LT, Silberman at LG, Harrison at C, Koehne at RG (i think), and Moore at RT.

    There had been some discussion about UF's health on the OL for that game, but honestly, that's a similar line up to what UF saw later in the year after the OL was in really bad shape.

    So, maybe you can give Florida a pass for Miami? IDK...
  5. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    In the big picture, OL and QB injuries along with the injury to Easley were the biggest factors.

    I would argue some of these other points... like Debose was expected to start and was clearly our best deep returning threat. Rolin is a straight baller. Very smart player and he plays downhill. When he gets really healthy, he's going to play. Watch him.

    Regardless of any debate on individuals, we had a chit ton of injuries that significantly impacted multiple position groups.

    And I know we still should have done better... losses to Miami and GA Southern were inexcusable IMO. Given the injury situation, the rest were understandable, but not always how we lost. We quit a few times when we got behind. I understand why with the pathetic offense we had, but you can't do it. You have to keep trying to make plays.
  6. LurkerExposed
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    Yes, it's relevant IMO to point this out....if we were to apply the same criteria for Clemson that ESPN has applied to the SEC (records vs teams w/4 or fewer losses are after the records vs top-10 teams in parenthesis):

    Clemson

    '05: 1-2 (0-0) 0-2
    '06: 2-2 (0-0) 1-3
    '07: 0-3 (0-2) 1-3
    '08: 0-3 (0-1) 0-4
    '09: 1-3 (0-1) 2-3
    '10: 2-3 (0-1) 2-2
    '11: 3-2 (0-1) 3-2
    '12: 1-2 (0-2) 2-2
    '13: 1-2 (1-1) 1-2

    3 yrs: 5-6 .455 (1-4)

    2005- : 11-22 .333 (1-9)

    Against opponents with 4 or fewer losses: 12-23 .343

    South Carolina

    '05: 1-4 (0-2) 1-4
    '06: 0-5 (0-2) 1-5
    '07: 1-4 (1-1) 1-4
    '08: 1-3 (0-2) 1-3
    '09: 2-2 (0-2) 1-2
    '10: 1-4 (1-2) 1-4
    '11: 3-1 (0-1) 3-1
    '12: 4-2 (2-1) 3-2
    '13: 5-0 (3-0) 5-0

    3 yrs: 12-3 .800 (5-2)

    2005- : 18-25 .419 (7-13)

    Against opponents with 4 or fewer losses: 17-25 .405

    This is a good representation of each team's typical schedule overall, both OOC and in-conference. Over the previous 9 seasons since Spurrier took over at USC, USC has played at least Five (5) opponents each year who would finish ranked in the final top-25 polls SIX (6) times, or 67% of the period. Clemson would fail to play at least FOUR (4) similar opponents each year FIVE (5) times, or 56% of the period. Clemson would play 5 or more final-ranked opponents only twice in those 9 years, while USC would play no fewer than 4 such opponents every year of that period...

    And it's even more obvious when you look at the opponents each program has played that finished ranked in the top 10: Clemson has only played TEN (10) such opponents over those 9 years, beating only one of them....and that was the very last one they played, in Ohio State who finished 2013 ranked 10th by the USA Today poll, 12th by the AP. So one could say that Clemson has started a win streak, I guess. USC has played a total of TWENTY (20) opponents in the same time period that finished ranked in the top 10, beating 7 of them. Going back to USC's win over Clemson who finished 2012 ranked 9th in the USA/Today poll (11th in the AP poll), USC has a current 4-game win streak over opponents who would finish ranked in the top 10 over 2 seasons. That's as many top-10 opponents Clemson has played in '12 and '13, win or lose...

    Also, the records versus opponents with 4 or fewer losses for both programs is also telling, but for a different reason. Each SC program has played a similar total # of such opponents - USC has the slightly better win %, but the difference is almost negligible. Then why the discrepancy in the total # of ranked opponents between the two programs? Isn't it the same translation?

    Well, as it turns out there have been quite a number of ACC teams of the recent years that finished with 9-4 records, but didn't end up ranked in the final top-25 polls. They received votes, but not enough to get into the final rankings. Apparently they each were viewed as playing too weak a schedule to warrant more consideration. In contrast, hardly ever does a SEC team finish 9-4 and does NOT end up in the final top-25 (see Vanderbilt the past 2 seasons).

    This is further representation of the overall perception the ACC has within the CFB Nation that it's a weak conference across the board...
    Last edited: May 19, 2014
  7. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    How many starters did nebraska lose prior to the season? HINT: It wasn't 12, PLUS ten injuries.
  8. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    1) They played an ACC schedule from 2000-2010 as well.

    From 2000-2010, both teams were basically 7-5 type teams. From 2011-13, both teams averaged 11-2.

    The point stands.

    2) Clemson played more teams with 10+ wins than USCe did over the past three years, and no, a 9-win SEC team is NOT better than a ten-win ACC team.
  9. Wormwood56
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    Polls are subjective. Perception does NOT equal reality. Going back to 2000, there is at BEST a half game edge to an X-win SEC team over an X-win ACC team, based on head to head results. It expands to a one game edge at the 12+ win level.

    Look at the teams Clemson and USCe played:

    Year-------------Clemson--------------------------USCe--------------Edge

    2013.....................Florida State (14-0)........................Mizzou (12-2)........Clemson
    2013.....................Ohio State (12-2)............................UCF (12-1)..............Clemson
    2012.....................Florida State (12-2)........................Georgia (12-2)........Clemson (slight)
    2012.....................LSU(10-3).......................................Florida (11-2).........USCe (slight)
    2011......................Virginia Tech (11-3).......................Arkansas (11-2)......USCe (slight)
    2011......................Virginia Tech (11-3).......................Georgia (10-4)........Clemson
    2011......................West Virginia (10-3)......................Nebraska (9-4).......Wash

    Not all SEC teams are created equal. SEC teams with winning records the past two years versus teams with 8+ wins:

    Vandy: 1-8
    Ole Miss: 4-10
    Miss State: 1-10

    Many SEC teams (like teams in other conference) fatten up on mid-majors and FCS teams to become bowl eligible.
    Last edited: May 19, 2014
  10. DMann
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    DMann Well-Known Member

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    Woody, how do you explain USCe beating Clemson 4 years straight? Clemson injuries?
  11. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    Dunno. How does one explain FSU beating Florida more often than not in the 1990s? Was Bowden a better coach than SOS? How does one explain Ron Zook going 2-1 against Georgia or 2-1 on the field against FSU, both with better teams and supposedly better coaches? Or handing LSU their only loss (at Red Stick, no less) in 2003, and damn near beat them in 2004 if not for that lucky play at the end? Was Zook a better coach than Bowden, Richt and Saban?

    Spurrier is clearly the master over Dabo the last four years, but it doesn't preclude the fact that both teams had similar rises at exactly the same time. that is the point, not the relative strength of USCe and Clemson.
  12. DMann
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    DMann Well-Known Member

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    UofF's probation put FSU on the map. Bowden's greatest coaching achievement IMO was taking full advantage of UF's sanctions. Loss of those scholarships had a horrible effect on UF and a very positive effect on FSU. I did observe Spur's 90's teams beating FSU teams with far more talent. As for the Zooker, I'll let you draw your own conclusions.
  13. JerseyGator01
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    JerseyGator01 Well-Known Member

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    SC has beat Clemson five years straight. Details, details ...
  14. Wormwood56
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    UF's probation certainly helped FSU, no question, but the bigger aid was the explosion of the Sunshine State. And yes, spurrier did beat some great FSU teams (I still relish 1996 and 1997). But that doesn't change the fact that many things cannot be explained. Spurrier has become Bowden to Dabo's Spurrier at USCe, however. Spurrier quickly realized that Gamecock fans care far more for beating Clemson than running the table with a loss to Clemson, and adjusted accordingly.
  15. LurkerExposed
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    Polls are subjective? The final-season polls of teams that have played their seasons to completion are far, far less subjective than the recruiting service ratings you listed in your above post that I responded to, of prep prospects who have yet to take the field in a CFB contest.

    You were the one who made the reference to win-loss records "against teams with four or fewer losses". My point was to add some beef to your premise and show exactly what kind of opponents with 4 or fewer losses each team - USC and Clemson - have been playing these years. Other than using the final season poll rankings for those opponents, just what criteria should one use?

    You make the comparison between Clemson playing FSU, and USC playing Missouri, as if that's all the evidence there is. You start out talking about "a half game edge to an X-win SEC team over an X-win ACC team, based on head to head results. Then you cherry-pick opponents for each team, making sure to leave out the HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS of each team. This is nothing but fodder for inducing headaches. Clemson played FSU and OSU and USC, and went 1-2 versus them. USC played Mizzou and UCF and Clemson and went 3-0 versus them. The "edge" clearly goes to USC.

    And how do you come to determine this "edge"? what criteria are you using? Oh, of course, the final season national polls are "subjective", and a perception that "does NOT equal reality", but your own individual opinion does, I guess. Sounds legit to me....

    I posted the comparison between the two programs. Both played essentially the same # of top-25 opponents (USC with slightly more), but USC won 7 more gms of those than Clemson in the 9 yrs beginning with 2005. Almost 1 extra won gm per season. Both teams also played similar # of opponents with 4 or fewer losses, but USC won the higher % of those as well.

    But USC also played twice as many gms vs top-10 opponents in that period (20 vs 10), and won far more of those gms (7 vs only 1). That means of those roughly equal number of top-25 ranked opponents that both programs played beginning with 2005, USC's was of a far higher quality than Clemson's, as USC's opponents contained twice as many top-10 ranked opponents than CU's did. And of those higher quality opponents, USC beat over a 3rd of them, while Clemson is lucky it hasn't been shut out entirely against it's top-end opponents....
  16. LurkerExposed
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    Pitiful.

    I can't honestly say to what direction your over-laden agenda leans heaviest against: Steven Orr Spurrier, or the University of South Carolina. But I honestly hope the majority of fanbase here doesn't pay it much mind.

    Georgia: 4-5
    Florida: 4-5
    Tennessee: 5-4
    Clemson: 6-3

    Looks to me like he's approaching them all about the same...
  17. number1
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    So 9-4 Texas A&M would not be considered "better" than 10-4 Duke who they beat on the field?
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  18. Tebowism0823
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    I'm afraid nothing you say further will matter after this comment. You completely ignore EVERYTHING else besides the W/L column.
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  19. tafc_5_1981
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    Beat me to it
  20. tafc_5_1981
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    Yes Clemson is 0-5 vs. SC, but are 5-1 vs. other SEC teams during that same period (the 1 loss being to 2010 Auburn in OT). I wish the ACC was stronger, but Clemson plays more SEC teams than most any other non SEC team.

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