Why Isn't Wilbekin at least a late lottery pick?

Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by InstiGATOR1, Jun 2, 2014.

  1. InstiGATOR1
    Offline

    InstiGATOR1 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2011
    Messages:
    2,948
    Likes Received:
    17
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Ratings Received:
    +31
    I want to take care in investigating the question I posed in the subject line. Everyone knows Wilbekin can play. He was the SEC player of the year after all. He can play both ends of the court so this is not an Ernie “no D” situation. There has been some speculation that Wilbekin just is not athletic enough, but then it turns out that he is at the Clipper’s combine. Wilbekin is not overly tall, but then other players his size have been very high picks.

    So I first compared his combine numbers to 3 very high picks his size: John Wall, Derrick Rose and Brandon Knight. Here is their combine comparison:

    Wilbekin 6'1.5" w/o shoes, 6'2.75" with shoes, 168 lbs, 6'3.25" wingspan, 7'11" reach, 4.4% body fat, 34.0" No step vertical, 38.5" max vertical, 12 reps with the bench press, 10.65 seconds for the agility drill and 3.11 second for the sprint.

    B. Knight 6'1.5" w/o shoes, 6'3.25" with shoes, 177 lbs, 6'6.75" wingspan, 8'2.5" reach, 4.2% body fat, 29.0" No step vertical, 37.5" max vertical, 10 reps with the bench press, 10.74 seconds for the agility drill and 3.07 second for the sprint.

    J.Wall 6'2.75" w/o shoes, 6'4" with shoes, 196 lbs, 6'9.25" wingspan, 8'5.5" reach, 5.6% body fat, 30" No step vertical, 39" max vertical, 10.84 seconds for the agility drill and 3.16 second for the sprint.

    D.Rose 6'1.5" w/o shoes, 6'2.5" with shoes, 196 lbs, 6'8" wingspan, 8'2.5" reach, 4.6% body fat, 34.5" No step vertical, 40" max vertical, 11.69 seconds for the agility drill and 3.05 second for the sprint.

    Wilbekin is right their with this group height wise. Wilbekin falls down a bit in wingspan and reach, but may have the best overall athletic tests.

    As I said, we also know that Wilbekin can play. This link takes you to a side by side comparison of these 4 players. Wilbekin is as good as all of the in offensive efficiency, does not rebound as well as the other three, but takes far better care of the ball.

    http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/co...ie-wilbekin&p2=derrick-rose&p3=brandon-knight

    Of course these comparison are for guys a few year back. Maybe this years’ draft has better guard. Well there are 3 projected first round guys this year about Wilbekin’s size, Marcus Smart, Tyler Ennis and Elfrid Payton. Here are Wilbkin’s combine numbers compared to theirs:

    Wilbekin 6'1.5" w/o shoes, 6'2.75" with shoes, 168 lbs, 6'3.25" wingspan, 7'11" reach, 4.4% body fat, 34.0" No step vertical, 38.5" max vertical, 12 reps with the bench press, 10.65 seconds for the agility drill and 3.11 second for the sprint.

    E. Payton 6'2.5" w/o shoes, 6'3.75" with shoes, 185 lbs, 6'8" wingspan, 8'2.5" reach, 5.7% body fat, 31.5" No step vertical, 35.5" max vertical, 11.06 seconds for the agility drill and 3.23 second for the sprint.

    M. Smart 6'2" w/o shoes, 6'3.25" with shoes, 227 lbs, 6'9.25" wingspan, 8'3" reach, 10.6% body fat, 33" No step vertical, 36" max vertical, 11.06 seconds for the agility drill and 3.26 second for the sprint.

    T. Ennis 6'1" w/o shoes, 6'2.5" with shoes, 182 lbs, 6'7.25" wingspan, 8'2" reach, 6.2% body fat, 29" No step vertical, 36" max vertical, 10.82 seconds for the agility drill and 3.30 second for the sprint.
    Again Wilbekin is right there with this group height wise, a little worse than them in terms of wingspan and reach, but clearly the best of the four in terms of the measures of athleticism, the verticals and the running times.

    Again here is a link to the side by side comparison of how these four players played last season:

    http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/co...ottie-wilbekin&p2=marcus-smart&p3=tyler-ennis

    Again Wilbekin is right there in terms of offensive efficiency and taking care of the ball, but does not rebound as well as there other players. Of course Wilbekin is also probably the best defender of the bunch.

    So Wilbekin is right there with guys taken at the very top of the draft recently and with guys likely to be mid to later lottery picks this year. So why is he not on the board?

    Well many will think it is age. But of course as we know Wilbekin came to UF early and so he is not as old as many SRs. The ages of the seven players we have looked at are not that far apart. At the day their draft their ages were/will be: Wilbekin 21 years 3 months, Payton 20 years 5 months, Smart 20 years 5 months, Ennis 19 years 10 months, Knight 19 years 7 month, Wall 19 years 10 months, and Rose 19 years 9 months. So the largest difference is 1 year 8 months and with two of the guys in this years draft it is less than a year.

    Now maybe scouts feel that if you play 4 years of college you are closer to your maximum potential regardless of age and it is years of college scouts are holding against WIlbekin? Either that or wingspan really means a lot. Or perhaps Wilbekin is paying a big price for his off field issue? I would welcome any comments or suggestions of why Wilbekin is not a lottery pick.
    • Like Like x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
  2. speedytilian87
    Offline

    speedytilian87 Member

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2010
    Messages:
    58
    Likes Received:
    2
    Trophy Points:
    8
    Ratings Received:
    +55
    Did you really just compare Wilbekin to Brandon Knight, Derrick Rose and Paul Wall?

    Cmon man.
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 4, 2014
    • Dislike Dislike x 1
    • Funny Funny x 1
  3. orangeblueorangeblue
    Offline

    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    56,379
    Likes Received:
    555
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +2,463
    Did you seriously just miss his entire point?

    Cmon man.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  4. phideltdj
    Offline

    phideltdj Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2007
    Messages:
    1,598
    Likes Received:
    44
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +259
    I guess the NBA doesn't put any value into the best backcourt defender available...it really is all about offense.
  5. oneatatime
    Offline

    oneatatime Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2007
    Messages:
    5,147
    Likes Received:
    57
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +255
    NBA teams do a great job of blowing smoke. I don't think he has any chance to get taken in the lottery, but it wouldn't surprise me if he goes late first or early second round.

    I am sure each team is doing their homework on his suspensions, something that we will never hear about until after he is taken, because of course the questions will be asked
  6. mfpardnor2
    Offline

    mfpardnor2 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2009
    Messages:
    8,190
    Likes Received:
    2,074
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Jensen Beach, FL
    Ratings Received:
    +2,196
    I'd love for the Heat to pick him or Patrick Young up, with their defensive prowess they'd fit right in.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  7. tilly
    Offline

    tilly Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 31, 2007
    Messages:
    19,331
    Likes Received:
    631
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Wilmington, NC (Jax Native...raised on the Gulf)
    Ratings Received:
    +2,222
    Interestingly enough, we have had the same debate in the NFL draft as well.
    Truth is, I don't know how either will pan out in the pros.

    My guess is the guys getting paid will figure out if he's good enough or not...same as the NFL.
  8. Go2gtr
    Offline

    Go2gtr Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    13,947
    Likes Received:
    45
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +130
    Not one but two suspensions.
  9. Bedlam
    Offline

    Bedlam Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2008
    Messages:
    1,433
    Likes Received:
    27
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +131
    I don't think he's better than Derrick Rose, but there's a good chance he's probably a better player than Paul Wall, so I agree with you there.
    • Funny Funny x 3
  10. Osiris_DPM
    Offline

    Osiris_DPM Premium Member

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2009
    Messages:
    5,806
    Likes Received:
    245
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +658
    Does he work for State Farm?
    • Funny Funny x 1
  11. InstiGATOR1
    Offline

    InstiGATOR1 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2011
    Messages:
    2,948
    Likes Received:
    17
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Ratings Received:
    +31
    Actually I compared Wilbekin to Rose, Knight and Wall BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AS EACH ENTERED THE DRAFT.
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 4, 2014
    • Agree Agree x 2
  12. InstiGATOR1
    Offline

    InstiGATOR1 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2011
    Messages:
    2,948
    Likes Received:
    17
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Ratings Received:
    +31
    1. We almost never have these debates about NFL prospects. We knew that Wuerffel was not going high in the first round due to arm strength. We knew that Tebow was being down graded a bit due to the kind of offense he ran and his ability to take a snap and read a defense. We knew that despite Doering blowing away the SEC TD pass catching numbers, he did not have elite speed. I really can not think of an NFL prospect who was not rated as high as his numbers might indicate where we did not know some criticisms of him. Now maybe that is due in part to the greater coverage of the NFL draft compared to the NBA draft. With Wilbekin we assumed it was his athleticism until the Clipper's pre-draft camp testing came out.

    2. I never trust the guys getting paid. They are ex-jocks. Many are lazy. I am shocked at how in the NBA some don't seem to scout beyond RSCI.
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2014
  13. gatorjeff20017
    Offline

    gatorjeff20017 Active Member

    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2013
    Messages:
    289
    Likes Received:
    37
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Ratings Received:
    +206
    Who is Paul Wall? Did you mean Pall Mall? I hear his skill set is smokin'.
  14. ThePlayer
    Offline

    ThePlayer VIP Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    27,172
    Likes Received:
    376
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,676
    Size matters....unless your skills are insane.
    I don't see a deadly outside shot from Scottie.
    • Informative Informative x 1
  15. InstiGATOR1
    Offline

    InstiGATOR1 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2011
    Messages:
    2,948
    Likes Received:
    17
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Ratings Received:
    +31
    Well when you click through those link I conveniently provided you, you see that Wilbekin shot the best from the arc of the seven similarly sized players I included in the discussion. The actual shooting numbers from the arc are Wilbken 39% Rose 33.7%, Knight 37.7%, Wall 32.5%, Smart 29.9%, Payton 25.3% and Ennis 35.3%.

    So regardless of what you see, Wilbekin was the best college three point shooters of this group of similarly sized players. That is another point you seemed to have missed. I am not comparing Wilbekin to Exum or Napier, but guys who have are of similar height to what Wilbekin measured, ie 6'3" ish.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  16. tampajack1
    Offline

    tampajack1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    4,687
    Likes Received:
    54
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +269
    Scottie has excellent form on his jump shot and is an exceptional defender. On offense, he is not going to break down defenders off the dribble like Rose, Knight, Wall or a bunch of other NBA point guards. However, I could see Scottie as a Mark Jackson type of point guard although he will never be as strong physically as was Mark during his career.
  17. Gators2015_BB3
    Offline

    Gators2015_BB3 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2013
    Messages:
    95
    Likes Received:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    8
    Ratings Received:
    +14
    Cuz hes not as good as those players you listed.. and his length doesnt even come close to them
  18. UFreak
    Offline

    UFreak Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    6,298
    Likes Received:
    196
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +858
    Well thought out and researched instiGATOR1.
    Thank you for the very informative post.
  19. GatorsGators
    Offline

    GatorsGators Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2012
    Messages:
    538
    Likes Received:
    4
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Ratings Received:
    +25
    He's definitely as good as Ennis and Payton.

    Yet they're projected lotto picks and Wilbekin isn't projected to be drafted.

    Come on... Aaron Craft is considered a better prospect than Wilbekin, even though Wilbekin is nearly two years younger and was undoubtedly the better college player and fared much better in the combine drills. How does that make sense?

    I agree with Insti. Hacks like Jonathan Givony have been citing Wilbekin's "lack of athleticism" as the reason he won't make it in the NBA yet the facts don't support that argument at all.

    I think it's just scouting bias. Scouts rely too much on first impressions and don't respond well to new information. Apparently someone wasn't impressed with Wilbekin's athleticism at first glance, and in the mock draft echo-chamber that is the internet, it's become consensus that Wilbekin is a bad athlete. That's my only explanation.
  20. InstiGATOR1
    Offline

    InstiGATOR1 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2011
    Messages:
    2,948
    Likes Received:
    17
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Ratings Received:
    +31
    He is a better college player than all of those listed. That is pretty clear from the statistics, the success of his team and the awards he received.

    As for your length comment, perhaps you are right. If by length you mean wingspan and reach. So apparently as I asked they mean that much. Length over comes ability and the other combine numbers to such an extent that the other six guys I posted have been/will be lottery picks and Wilbekin go undrafted? I sort of doubt it, but maybe.

Share This Page