Why Florida is Broken...

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by samit23, Nov 9, 2013.

  1. samit23
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    samit23 Well-Known Member

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    Here is a look at recruiting since 2007. Its not pretty on offense. You really need to hit around 70-75% success in evaluation in order to be an elite program.

    2007
    Paul Wilson - WR - non contributor
    Steve Wilks - FB - ST contributor
    Bo Willimas - RB - transfer
    Bryan Waggener - QB
    Deonte Thompson - WR
    Chris Rainey - RB
    Pouncy Brothers - OL
    Cam Newton - QB - transfer
    Aaron Hernandez - TE
    John Brantley - QB - bust

    4 contributors (3 All SEC)/6 busts or noncontributors

    60% bust rate


    2008
    David Young - OL - medical
    Sam Robey -OL - career backup
    TJ Pridemore - FB - limited duty
    Matt Patchan - OL - transfer/bust
    Carl Moore - WR - 2 years eligibility
    E. Moody - RB - underachiever
    TJ Lawrence - WR - transfer
    O. Hines - WR - utility player
    Frankie Hammond - WR - #3 WR
    Jeff Demps - RB - Decent back - best year was true frosh year

    5 contributors/backups (0 All SEC)/5 busts or non-contributors
    50% bust rate

    2009
    Andre Debose - WR - medical/bust
    Xavier Nixon - OL - 4 year starter - very average
    Nick Alajajian - OL - medical/bust
    Mike Gillislee - RB - 1 great season
    Jordan Reed - TE - All SEC
    Desmond Parks - TE - transfer
    Stephen Ali - WR - bust
    Kyle Koehne - OL - career backup
    Jon Harrison - OL - 2 year starter - average player
    Jon Halapio - OL - 3 year starter very average

    6 contributor/backups (1xAll SEC)/4 busts or non-contributors
    40%bust rate

    2010
    Mack Brown - RB - career backup
    Gerald Christian - TE - transfer
    Chris Dunkley - WR - transfer/bust
    Ian Silberman - OL - career backup
    Chaz Green - OL - starter - injured
    Solomon Patton - WR - #3 WR
    Trey Burton - WR - utility player
    Quinton Dunbar - WR - #3 WR
    Tyler Murphy - QB - career backup
    Michael McFarland - TE - transfer

    6 contributors/backups (0xAll SEC - 1 starter)/4 busts or non-contributors
    40% bust rate

    LAST 4 URBAN MEYER CLASSES = 45 players. 4 All SEC. 53% bust rate.

    2011 - *Muschamp 1st Class
    Jeff Driskel - QB - starter
    Ja-Juan Story - WR - transfer
    AC Leonard - transfer
    Mike Blakely - RB - transfer
    Javares McRoy - transfer
    Clay Burton - converted DE
    Valdez Showers - converted DB
    Jacoby Brissett - QB - transfer
    Trip Thurman - OL - nonfactor
    Tommy Jordan- OL - nonfactor
    Hunter Joyer - FB - starter
    Tevin Westbrook - converted DE

    7 contributors (0 ALL SEC. 3 converted Defenders) / 5 busts/Non-Contributors
    42% bust rate (pending)

    2012
    DJ Humphries - OL
    Jessamen Dunker - OL
    Colin Thompson - TE
    Kent Taylor - TE
    Matt Jones - RB
    Latroy Pittman - WR
    Skyler Mornhinweg - QB
    Raphael Andrades - WR

    8 on roster/1 transfer

    2 starters.

    2013
    Kent Taylor - RB
    Demarcus Robinson - WR
    Alvin Bailey - WR
    Ahmad Fulwood - WR
    Adam Lane - RB
    Marqui Hawkins - WR
    Max Staver - QB
    ROderick Johnson - OL
    Trenton Brown - OL
    Octavius Jackson - OL
    Chris Thompson - WR
    Trevon Young - OL
    Tyler Moore - OL

    2xRB. 5xWR.5xOL.

    This is why Urban said the program was broken. He recruited 45 offensive players in his last 4 classes and only pulled 4 ALL-SEC players. 3 of which were in the 2007 class and the last 1 was ALL-SEC under Muschamp. A 53% bust rate on evaluation is abysmal by any standard, let alone that of a major D1 program.

    Now to Muschamp. I am willing to toss out the 2011 class since he was a new hire and traditionally there is never good success in a coach's very first class since he is starting while everybody else is closing.

    On to 2012, we see that where Will failed was in his failure to sign more OL in that class. Losing Dunker was an un-mittigated disaster for him, especially in light of the fact that he signed only 1 other freshman OL. Although, I will not totally blame him for going light on offensive skilled players in this class as 2012 did not appear to be a strong class. He did miss on a couple of big time players here, but he didn't reach. He made an executive decision that the scholly's were better spent on top end D talent as opposed to reaching for offense. This decision has hurt us in the short term due to our inability to make up for the lack of depth resulting from the 07-11 classes. But, in the longrun this decision could ultimately restore the program by reducing the bust rate which was out of control in 07-11. It is too early to declare anybody still on the roster a bust in this class (except possibly Latroy Pittman who appears to be on the transfer list at season's end). Although the failure of the TE's to get on the field is a sore subject for us fans, I do not believe it is fair to declare them busts. Finally, Matt Jones was bitten by bad luck when he got mono and missed fall camp. I will not declare him a bust....yet.

    Looking at 2013, this was Will's first real foot forward into offensive recruiting. The optimist in me tells me that the additions of the 5 WRs including the 2 potential studs in Fullwood and Robinson and the addition of 5 OL and 2 stud RBs in Taylor and Lane (who I still believe has the highest ceiling), have restored Florida as a major player for offensive talent.

    We see the impact of recruiting, specifically 2011, this season as FSU's entire offense essentially came from the 2011 class. Jimbo was in full swing while Will was the new kid on the block. I believe (without checking) that FSU recruited all of their starting WR's, RB's and TE in 2011. The poor offensive recruiting in 07-11 coupled with the strong class we missed on in 2011 due to the new hire has set us back a few years and made it very difficult to make up ground quickly, specially in light of the thin offensive talent in the country in 2012.

    For argument's sake lets stay Muschamp stays, if he closes with Grier, Cook, Lane, Goolsby, and adds 1 or 2 of the big OL, then I believe the program will finally be back in a position to recruit more balanced rosters moving forward. If he misses on a couple of OL then depth will continue to be an issue. Best case scenario, the team has better luck on the injury front, has greater depth on the OL, a stable of top end backs and WR's and 2 senior QBs, i.e, a recipe for success in a year when the rest of the conference will be replacing their QBs.

    What is missing? The game changer. Where is the next Percy Harvin? Florida should not have to go 7 years between finding the next guy. Is that guy on campus now?

    For argument's sake lets say Muschamp is fired. If we lose Grier, the next coach will not be able to recruit a competent Qb in this class. Thus, unless Staver or Morning turns out to be something more then clipboard holders (which is very doubtful) that coach will be faced with the prospect of starting the 2015 campaign with a true freshman QB. This scenario seems like a very low percentage shot to me, especially in light of the expectations at Florida. Further, we will likely see some of the 2013 offensive talent transfer since they do not want their 3rd year to be with a true frosh pitching them the ball.

    I am very disappointed in the season. Frankly, I am disappointed in Muschamps management of the offense. I do not blame the defensive collapse as the offense has simply served up points to the opposing team so often that only the '85 Bears or '02 Bucs could stand up to that type of adversity on D. In Muschamp's defense, I do believe he was hired to fix the poor recruiting and evaluation taking place in the program. While nobody saw a losing season coming this year, I do believe that expectations were low in the athletic department understanding the challenges in depth coupled with the fact that we were replacing 15 starters from an 11 win team. That coupled with 8 season ending injuries on a team lacking depth to start the season is not a good formula for any coach. I for one believe that Saban or SOS or Meyer might have done 1 or 2 games better with this same set of circumstances, but nothing more. I think this is a much more complicated decision for Foley then it was with Zook (who, contrary to the opinion of many was a far inferior coach to Muschamp). I do not believe that Foley's job hangs in the balance of any one decision as he is the best AD in America by a long shot. But, this is a very difficult decision and I am glad he is the one to make it.

    Thoughts?
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  2. nortonis
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    nortonis New Member

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    Good points and I understand what you are trying to do. Conduct the same analysis for Vandy and you'll see how they'd wish they had our guys. They still laid a pipe on us at home with a freshman backup QB. If they had Patton, Taylor, and Dunbar, they could have put 60 on us. We need a coach who can do more with less.
  3. samit23
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    samit23 Well-Known Member

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    I get it, but we are not Vandy. This is about Florida. Vandy hasn't been thru everything these kids have been thru. Vandy has better WRs then Florida and a better OL. We really need a coach that can do more with more.
  4. sevmonster
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    sevmonster Active Member

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    Dana Holgorsen as OC after WVU fires him.
  5. vorpal
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    vorpal New Member

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    good coaches can take yours and beat his and vice versa.....Champ is a Coordinator.... and a good one.... but some good coaches are not good head coaches....Everything else is excuses in my opinion. The bottom line is the bottom line...If Foley is not careful that stadium will be 30-40% empty on a regular basis.... Fan apathy is damn close!
  6. mjbuf05
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    mjbuf05 Premium Member

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    Very, very good post. One of the best I have read in a long time. This definitely helps to explain why we are where we are. Well done.
  7. nortonis
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    nortonis New Member

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    The answer is that there has to be a complete overhaul of the program including scheme, training, playcalling, discipline, recruit evaluation, etc. We need to "fix" everything because almost everything is broken. There is only one exception - the kids have a great attitude. I have met a few of these kids and they are truly exemplary.
  8. samit23
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    samit23 Well-Known Member

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    I can't believe everything needs to be overhauled considering the fact that we won 11 games last year as well as all of the injuries.

    Sent from my iPhone using GatorCountry
  9. nortonis
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    nortonis New Member

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    Honestly, did that feel like an 11 win season? Didn't you feel like something was wrong last year - like a 100+ ranked offense? Honestly?
  10. samit23
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    samit23 Well-Known Member

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    I was at most of the home games and at aTm and they all felt like wins to me. Not the fun-n-gun more like late 90s NFL football.

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  11. xenythx
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    xenythx Well-Known Member

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    Muschamp has had three recruiting classes, why is he still playing most Urban recruits if they were so terrible?
  12. gator07
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    gator07 Well-Known Member

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    Exactly. Feel free to do something of your own, coach.
  13. hastings15
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    hastings15 Member

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    Small point - I believe you counted the Pouncey Brothers as only one person.
  14. nortonis
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    nortonis New Member

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    To me, that honestly felt like an 8-5 season with several lucky bounces.
  15. PTCGator
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    PTCGator Well-Known Member

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    Nice analysis! We have had more than our share of top HS talent that didn't pan out for various reasons. Right now we have some terrific talent at RB (Jones, Taylor, Lane) and hopefully more coming in the next class. QB continues to be a question mark because Driskel will have to recover/improve and we don't want to depend on a true freshman if JD can't make it back as an effective SEC QB. Murphy has had his moments but its pretty clear that nobody can win in this league without an effective O-line. Our priority has got to be..... bring in and develop talented offensive linemen. If the current coaches cannot accomplish that, then we need to move on. Right now, I still believe in Muschamp but Pease has got to go! Bring in an OC who can and will recruit top talent....then train them to execute a fast/high scoring offense. The "year of the injury" will go down as one of the most disappointing years in the history of UF football. Let's hope they can bring in some talented kids who will turn this train wreck around and put us back on the national map!
  16. mac4lyfe
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    mac4lyfe Well-Known Member

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    The margin between winning and losing is razor thin. We won 11 games last year but really could have lost 7 or 8 of them. We got very lucky in a few games but overall, we were not really impressive in most of them. Last year was a fluke. We had bad habits then that we have not cleaned up since. The team has gone backwards and has not improved in any area that I can see. I'm afraid it's going to take an overhaul that only a new coaching staff can instill. I don't have time to list my reasons but I have zero faith in Muschamp. Zero.

  17. balance
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    balance Active Member

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    Interesting analysis. I'd be curious to see a similar year-by-year analysis of other top-tier schools: Bama, LSU, USC, etc. I wonder what the national average is for % of recruiting class that becomes 3-4 year starters, much less All conference or All American. It always seems like recruiting, just like like NFL Draft picks, is a bit of a crap shoot.
  18. gator85jd
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    gator85jd New Member

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    Excellent points. OP is a stretch at best -- it's the same set of problems most other programs face.
  19. samit23
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    samit23 Well-Known Member

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    Urban didn't win one with his own players until class #4.

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  20. Taxg8r00
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    Taxg8r00 Member

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    Agree 100%. Next year there will just be more excuses. Auburn turned it around in 1 year, same for freaking Ole Miss.

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