Where have all the hurricanes gone?

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by wygator, Oct 1, 2013.

  1. g8orbill
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    g8orbill Gators VIP Member

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    just another thing that incites the GW crowd
  2. GatorBen
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    GatorBen Well-Known Member

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    I know every time I see how few hurricanes we have been experiencing I miss GW Bush more and more.

    :wink:
  3. wygator
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    wygator Well-Known Member

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    Whether or not you want to dismiss the RECORD period of no landfalling majors, the low ACE is hemispheric, so it isn't simply a random US phenomena.
  4. oragator1
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    oragator1 Premium Member

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    Not sure what you are arguing, your article says much of what I did. First, on dry air this year:

    Second, it says the ACE is low but not unprecedented, there were 4 years where it was lower and 2 of those 4 years had landfalling hurricanes in the US with one of those being a major hurricane (I looked it up). And if we are using ACE as the standard, 4 of the years during our "drought" are in the top 20 or so years for ACE in the last 60, and yet no landfalling major hurricanes. The 2 things aren't necessarily causal or corrollary.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

    Third, the point about Mexico is that just because the US hasn't been hit doesn't mean the seasons haven't been active, there is a measure of variation on where the storms go over a massive area. Heck in 2010, while we were in our drought tiny Belize had 2 landfalling hurricanes in one year - how do you think they view hurricanes during our drought period?

    My point is simply this, larger data sets, be it in years or regions provides a better picture than smaller ones.

    If we look globally and energy is down, that is a question worth asking, why? How long had it been going on? Is it cyclical? If so, how does this cycle compare to other down cycles?
  5. wygator
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    wygator Well-Known Member

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    Yes, and I read the article through. The ACE is not an unprecedented low, but it is well below normal. Point being that both the GCM's for global warming and the separate forecast for this season were for above normal activity and ACE.

    And yes, the article offers two explanations...surprisingly dry air and surprisingly lower surface temps near Portugal.

    Note, they were surprised by those two key developments. My overarching point is simply that we still don't understand climate well enough, and the complexity of our climate systems remains far beyond our ability to accurately model it, to make reliable forecasts for a season, much less, a century.

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