What will be our record this coming season?

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by Bazza, Jun 16, 2014.

  1. Bazza
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    Bazza Well-Known Member

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    I say we go UNDEFEATED including winning the NC.
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  2. UFreak
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    UFreak Well-Known Member

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    10-3 But I would be much happier if you were right.
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  3. Colin
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    Colin Premium Member

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    10-2 regular season.
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  4. UFreak
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    UFreak Well-Known Member

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    What about the whole season? The reason I say this is because it takes into account expectations not only for the bowl game, but on if we make it to the SEC Title game.
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2014
  5. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    Depends. We have an experienced team this year, losing only 8 starters. IF WE STAY HEALTHY:

    * The strength of schedule heavily impacts the result. If our opponents are equally as tough as they were last year, I think we will:

    Opponent----------W/L-------------Outcome

    Idaho..........................1-11....................Win
    Eastern Michigan.......2-10...................Win
    Kentucky.....................2-10...................Win
    @Alabama................11-2......................Loss
    @Tennessee.................5-7.....................Win
    LSU............................10-3......................Tossup
    Mizzou.......................12-2.......................Loss
    Georgia........................8-5.......................Tossup
    @Vandy.......................9-4.......................Tossup
    USCe..........................11-2........................Tossup
    Eastern Kentucky........0-12.....................Win
    @Florida State...........14-0.......................Loss

    Presuming we split the tossups

    Best Case: 9-3
    Worst Case: 5-7
    Probable: 7-5

    Now, looking at the teams themselves:

    * first three are wins

    * @Alabama: Tide loses 12 starters, including AJ McCarren. Their OL also took some hits. The game is early. could be a tossup if we come out clicking against our first three cupcakes.

    * @Tennessee: Vols lose both sides of the line of scrimmage, and it is too early for the replacements to gel.

    * LSU: Tigers lose much of offense, including their QB. Their defense will be damned strong, however. Definitely a tossup

    * Mizzou: Loses 15 starters, including their QB. This one definitely turns to a strong tossup. I'll call it a win.

    * Georgia: Loses Murray, but still has Gurshall, and their defense will be MUCH improved. Still a tossup.

    * Vandy: Loses 13 startes and their coaching staff. I think this one will be a win.

    * USCe: Losing Connor Shaw will hurt more than losing Clowney. Not sure Dylan Thompson can perform against a great defense. Strong tossup.

    * @FSU: They are still too strong.

    So with the adjustments:


    Opponent----------Better/worse-------------Outcome

    Idaho..........................Doesn't Matter....................Win
    Eastern Michigan.......Doesn't Matter...................Win
    Kentucky.....................Doesn't Matter...................Win
    @Alabama..................Worse (early in season)......Tossup
    @Tennessee.................Worse..................................Win
    LSU..............................Slightly worse.....................Tossup
    Mizzou.........................Much worse........................Win
    Georgia........................Better...................................Tossup
    @Vandy.......................Much worse.........................Win
    USCe............................Worse...................................Tossup
    Eastern Kentucky........Doesn't Matter.....................Win
    @Florida State..............The Same.............................Loss

    Best Case: 10-2
    Worst Case: 7-5
    Probable: 9-3
  6. GboroGator
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    GboroGator Well-Known Member

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    I can't project a bowl game not knowing who the opponent will be, and where the game is. As for the regular season, I go back and forth between 7-5 and 8-4.
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  7. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    I think 9-3 regular season is likely if our OL and QB position groups play reasonably well and stay healthy. That includes a loss to reFSU and two SEC losses, probably one from each division. We really have to get splits with LSU/Bama and USCe/UGA to have a shot at the East.

    UGA and USCe both have easier west division splits, UGA has Arky and Auburn, and USCe has aTm and Auburn. If either of them beat Auburn, the race for the East is most likely over.

    But if they both lose to Auburn and we earn our splits, we could be looking at a three way tie for first place in the East. Not sure how that tie would be broken.
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  8. Tebowism0823
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    I believe in Muschamp and Roper/Summers. I hate picking losses but I picked 9-3/10-2 earlier and I'm sticking with it leaning more towards the 10-2. I would love for Bazza to be correct!
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  9. OaktownGator
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    I actually believe in them too. I am not comfortable with our OL depth or what type of performance to expect in crunch time from our QB. And with this schedule, we'll need both groups to perform consistently at a high level, just to get to 9-3. They'll have to be special to do better than that. Fingers crossed.
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  10. gator34654
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    gator34654 Well-Known Member

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    I am hoping at least at the very least 9-3 anything less...
  11. UFreak
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    UFreak Well-Known Member

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    Another huge factor is the placement of open weeks and who a team plays the week before. The timing of the schedule is a BIG deal. It's one of the main reasons it will be very difficult for UT to beat us this year and another reason that I like our chances vs. LSU this year.
    In short, it's not just the strength of the teams on your schedule, it's also the timing in which you play those games. LSU comes into the Swamp having just played 7 straight games and having just visited Auburn. That will be a real tough situation for LSU to come win in Gainesville.
    Beating South Carolina at home will be a helluva challenge for us with them coming off a bye week.
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  12. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    Anything less than 9-3 is unacceptable?

    What if the OL has injuries and we don't have the depth to keep it together?

    How 'bout if the QB gets injured (again)? Or can't throw the ball down field accurately, and defenses squeeze the field leaving little room for Roper's offense to get the players the ball in space.... and/or QB doesn't convert red zone opportunities with plays that are open? Or turns the ball over more than puts it in the end zone? These were real problems last year, that may or may not be correctable by coaching and/or reps and hard work by our QB.

    Our alternatives at OL and QB are to look to true frosh to get the job done. True frosh are rarely the answer against this kind of schedule, in those position groups. Sometimes at RB, CB and occasionally WR. But rarely at other positions.

    Coaches need players to execute. They can do their best to set their players up for success, but sometimes you just need the right guys on your roster and don't have them... or don't have them experienced and healthy.

    If these problems occur, I think you need to look at the big picture of how the team played this season, and how we're recruiting and developing players in the position groups in question, and then make an informed decision on the best course of action. It may be to find a new coach. But that is not necessarily the case.

    Very good points on timing in the schedule. That LSU game should be a game we win in that context.

    Hope our pass rush is on for USCe. The good thing about Thompson is that he's an easy target. If we can get to him quick, we should be able to cause some turn overs.
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  13. ETGator1
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    ETGator1 Well-Known Member

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    9-3, maybe 10-2. I won't consider a worst case scenario unless we have another bout of season ending injuries.
  14. ACmann
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    ACmann Active Member

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    We are gonna hammer jammer bammer,same goes for our other foes.Lets get some sunshine rolling!
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  15. UFreak
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    UFreak Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure unacceptable is the right word because circumstance has to be considered (injuries, etc.). But I do think it will be hard for Muschamp to be here for 2015 with anything less than 9 wins. I think there will be a lot of influential people who will want a change. If nothing else, they will say that we just need a change to have a fresh start and to reinvgorate the program/fanbase. At least, that is what I think would happen with an 8-loss team. I'm not saying it is right or wrong. Just stating an opinion on what I think the fallout would be.
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  16. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    If we win less than 8, I think he's gone regardless of circumstances. If we win 8, I think it depends on context - how competitive we were and what the reasons were for the losses.

    If we win 9 or more against this schedule, it is difficult for me to picture him being fired. We'd have to look really bad in the losses.
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  17. UFreak
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    UFreak Well-Known Member

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    I think we are one game from being in complete agreement :)
  18. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    I got you, Freak. :)

    But question... is 10 wins the magic number for him to be safe regardless of schedule?

    Are we happy with 10 wins if we only played three or four top 20 teams, including one top ten? I suspect we would be because that is pretty much in line with our history.

    I just don't get how we can look at a schedule with the top two teams in the country on the road, plus two more top ten teams, another top 15 team and perhaps yet another top 25 team and view it with the same expectations as the far weaker schedules that we typically notched double digit wins against.
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  19. missourigator
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    missourigator Active Member

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    gee, aren't these the same prediction before last season. I love optimism.
  20. nolagator
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    nolagator Active Member

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    I think:
    • 8-4 is a Lock
    • 9-3 Very Doable - Happy
    • 10-2 Would not shock
    • More than that - Ecstatic
    • Muschamp stays at 7-5 IF we play outstanding - Gone if we play sloppy
    • Muschamp stays with 8 or 9 wins
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