What is the future of commercial RE space?

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by gatorknights, May 17, 2018.

  1. gatorknights

    gatorknights GC Hall of Fame

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    Since Amazon is killing it, Walmart is going that direction, and the big boxes are closing stores and laying off multiple thousands, what happens to that square footage? Is the Macy's going to be a homeless shelter? Kidding of course about Macy's, but JCPenny's?

    Almost half of US families can't afford basics like rent and food
  2. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    With half the population at the breaking point, it seems like we will eventually start electing people who will take a stand and stop the destruction of the middle class.

    BTW, I have heard of large department stores and malls being converted to residential condos/apartments...
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  3. 96Gatorcise

    96Gatorcise GC Hall of Fame

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    The crazy part is they keep building more and more CRE as already available space sits empty.
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  4. gatorknights

    gatorknights GC Hall of Fame

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    My former father in law grew up in east ATL and his high school was converted into condos. Didn't hurt it was a few miles from downtown. No perimeter nonsense in that location.
  5. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator VIP Member

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    I find this hard to believe

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  6. gatorknights

    gatorknights GC Hall of Fame

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    The brokers get paid when the deal closes, not on the performance of the finished product. How many files have I seen of mid rise condo buildings where nobody actually moved in? Tons. But the brokers got paid.
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  7. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    I don't get the connection between the future of commercial RE space and the linked article?
  8. gatorknights

    gatorknights GC Hall of Fame

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    Demand for space is declining, and with the invention of the intraweb, the need for commercial space is going to decline. So are jobs. Hence, folks struggle, and corporate does not care, as long as they get theirs.
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  9. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Yeah ... it seems like a cycle .... less space needed (due to Amazon and the decline of the middle class) --> fewer jobs --> fewer people can afford to shop --> less demand --> less space needed ...
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  10. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    But people aren't buying less, they are just buying it differently. So the jobs are moving from the big box stores to Amazon, Wal-mart online, UPS, and Fed Ex.
  11. g8orbill

    g8orbill Old Gator VIP Member

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    Not if you keep electing dems
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  12. gatorknights

    gatorknights GC Hall of Fame

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    When you used to be district manager and now your'e driving a UPS truck, your'e not buying as much as you used to. Econ 101.
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  13. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    At some point you'll have to get a grip on the fact that with the Republican goal to make the rich richer ... the money is coming from somewhere ... the middle class.
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  14. demosthenes

    demosthenes Premium Member

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    Some jobs are but nowhere close to 100%. There are a large number of efficiency based job losses.
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  15. gatorknights

    gatorknights GC Hall of Fame

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    And big bonus checks to corporate.
  16. Gator515151

    Gator515151 GC Hall of Fame

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    UPS doesn't have district managers?
  17. Gator515151

    Gator515151 GC Hall of Fame

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    At one time housing was 12 kids in a one room cabin, transportation was a horse, child care was mom and cell phones didn't exist.
    I'd say we are all doing a little better.
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  18. GatorNorth

    GatorNorth Premium Member Premium Member

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    I’ve been in retail development for 30 years.

    Absent the Great Recession retail sales go up 3-4% every year on average, with ecommerce sales about 10-12% of all retail sales excluding cars.And ecommerce sales growth much steeper than brick and mortar but both growing.

    It’s not the big buildings that are the problem, it’s the crappy retailers in them who’ve lost their way and failed to adapt. Macy’s, Kmart. Sears, Toys, etc.....what do they sell that you can’t get on your computer, phone or in a store you actually want to step into? Absolutely nothing. And most of those buildings are suburban and exurban during a flight back to urban living.

    Look at Best Buy. Left for dead 10 years ago, now vibrant again because they’ve figured out multi-channel distribution. Their store design has undergone a renaissance. A great turnaround story no one talks about.

    Compare to Toys R Us. 5 CEO’s in 10 years and not a discernible change in the store experience = DOA. Just a horrible retailer still with no web presence. Guess they missed the memo.

    And all the private equity takeovers loaded with debt at absolutely the wrong time destroyed many retailers.

    But retail isn’t dead. Not at all. To the contrary, it’s never been more exciting with multiple shopping channels, customization and same day delivery.

    But bad retail no longer stands a chance. And bad retailers are terminally ill.

    And history repeats itself. Sears was Amazon first. Stores, catalogs, houses, insurance, malls, travel agencies, , Kenmore, Diehard. K Mart owned Borders, Sports Authority and OfficeMax. Combined theydid it all. Until they didn’t. And now-the death spiral while Eddie Lampert sucks out every last dollars while their shareholders get effed.
    Last edited: May 17, 2018
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  19. Spurffelbow833

    Spurffelbow833 GC Hall of Fame

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    Mattress stores.
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  20. GatorNorth

    GatorNorth Premium Member Premium Member

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    Here’s part of the reason there are so many mattress stores.

    Attached Files: