We won another close game

Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by Jonas, Jan 11, 2014.

  1. themistocles
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    themistocles Well-Known Member

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    Winning close games is like that. Sometimes things go your way, sometimes not.

    Having 4 seniors on the team really, really helps this a lot.
  2. Jonas
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    Jonas Well-Known Member

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    Scottie drove just as well last year though. We weren't some crazy three point shooting team last year. I think most have memories of Walker and Kenny kind of playing stupid during the Butler game, but we actually won a ton of close games that year. We did average in Beal's year. The game where we lost to Louisville, we executed a great play and Beal just missed a lay up. It's not that he choked, it just happened.

    Last year, every loss was close except the Michigan game. That doesn't mean we did badly in tight situations, because several games were close that we blew open at the end. I remember the Bama game during the tourney was close, but then we extended it to a 10+ lead in the final minutes. There were several plays where our guys were in a position to hit a lay up but just missed. They didn't have deep psychological problems like Dan Werner. It was just flukey and Billy has commented about that.
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  3. Jonas
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    Jonas Well-Known Member

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    It def is luck to some extent. You can never guarantee a 100% shot. I think it's fair to say the probability of successfully scoring on the last possession is your average shooting percentage. For us that's like 40-60% most years.

    Our team last year didn't choke during our close games. Billy has commented about it and said he didn't feel they were guys that played worse under pressure. Shit just happens sometime.
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  4. Jonas
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    Jonas Well-Known Member

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    My OP was sarcastic for anyone who didn't get that lol
  5. UFreak
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    UFreak Well-Known Member

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    Winning close games is a matter of having balls and luck and having someone who can create on their own. There is absolutely no doubt who should have the ball down the stretch in games for our team. That makes things easy.

    When I hear people say that end-game situations are the same as any other part of the game, my knee-jerk is to presume that this person never played sports. Pressure is a reality in end-game situations and how one handles that is key to how you perform.

    Scottie is our guy.
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  6. BengermanV
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    BengermanV Well-Known Member

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    Just goes to show you what a farce it was that people said Billy couldn't win close games. It's a variance and skill thing. Rarely is it a coaching thing.
  7. HallGator
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    HallGator Administrator VIP Member

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    Heck, knocking him for not winning games was mild. Hasn't been but a few years ago some were ready to run him off. I used to cringe at those posts.
  8. BengermanV
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    BengermanV Well-Known Member

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    Oy, me too Hall. I think the whole Orlando Magic thing rubbed people the wrong way, but I'm not sure what more you could ask for out of a guy who inherited a below average program and turned it into what it is today.
  9. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Allow Ken Pomeroy to try to respond to your sentiments:

    Florida is 0-6 in games decided by single-digits. A big deal is made of this. A big deal is not made of Indiana going an unimpressive 7-5 in such games, or Louisville going 6-5.

    ...

    Maybe if Florida had played worse in some of their 26 double-digit wins, we wouldn’t be having this discussion. Personally, I don’t think that would make sense. Consider the flip side - if Indiana had turned its close wins into double-digit margins, almost surely we’d be hearing about their lack of clutchness. It’s bizarre to me that people would punish a team for its ability to put opponents away. With this in mind, though, I found seven Florida wins against decent competition that had at least a moderate amount of tension at some point in the second half.

    1. 3/16 vs. #61 Alabama (at Nashville) Trailed by 10 with 14 to go. Won by 10.
    2. 3/2 vs. #61 Alabama Trailed by 8 with 12 minutes left. Won by 12.
    3. 2/23 vs. #73 Arkansas Led by 4 at halftime. Won by 17.
    4. 1/23 at #97 Georgia Trailed by 3 at halftime. Led by 14 with 10 to go. Won by 17.
    5. 12/29 vs. #87 Air Force (at Miami) Led by 1 with 17 to go. Won by 17.
    6. 11/23 vs. #138 UCF Led by 7 with 17:30 left. Won by 13.
    7. 11/18 vs. #32 Middle Tennessee (at Tampa) Led by 4 with 16 minutes left. Won by 19.

    If the Gators had just consistently struggled a little more down the stretch in these games, people could say they were 7-6 in close games and totally deserving of their high computer rankings. Or something like that.


    http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/we...bably_will_lose_and_it_will_probably_be_close
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  10. gatorjeff20017
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    gatorjeff20017 Member

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    Great post. The Gators frequently played TOO WELL down the stretch in games last year to qualify for "close wins".
  11. Jonas
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    Jonas Well-Known Member

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    Right. That's why a "close game" stat is not meaningful to determine how well your team performs in high pressure situations or end game situations in a one or two possession game.
  12. TampaGatorFan
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    TampaGatorFan Well-Known Member

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    With all due respect to Ken Pomeroy, the 7 games he listed aren't really representative of close end-of-game situations. In those seven games he listed, the time remaining was 14, 12, 20, 20, 17, 17.5, and 16 minutes, respectively. Too much can happen in that long stretch of time to accurately gauge how a team will perform in true "crunch time", with the game clock under 3 minutes and the score within one or two possessions.

    If those games were supposed to be evidence to support his thesis, then he really should have chosen better examples.
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  13. Jonas
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    Jonas Well-Known Member

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    The examples were fine, because you are arguing different things. There is a difference between being 0-5 in games decided by 10 points or fewer or being bad in close endgame situations. No one has been touting a close endgame situation stat. Everyone was using the former stat and his examples show that statistic is dumb and is NOT indicative of efficacy in close endgame situations.

    I believe last year, we lost 4 games where we didn't do well in "crunch time" like you described. I don't think that's enough of a sample size to say we were chokers or Billy's late game strategy was poor.
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  14. gatorman_07732
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    gatorman_07732 Premium Member

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    I don't pay those people any mind. Personally I think those type of "fans" are certifiably nuts.
  15. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    I actually think that this is what Pomeroy's and my point is: Because that team was so good at pulling away, they ended up winning what seemed like close games by 12 points. The Alabama game for example looked like it was going to be a battle until the end, but Florida dominated this "crunch time".

    http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=330610057
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  16. tommyuf21
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    tommyuf21 Well-Known Member

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    Being able to drive the lane, get a put back and produce points that didn't involve having to make a three could have helped us in those late game situations. I do believe that we have more options to attack a defense and this makes a better team when we're in nip and tuck games.

    When the threes are falling, it does cover up some issues. Not that I'm complaining about being able to make a lot of them. It is the single biggest difference maker in the game.
  17. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    This is how I see it too. Since there is so much randomness in short time frames of basketball, it is difficult to say much about them with confidence. I am glad that we are winning these close games because I want an SEC title. I don't necessarily think that this is evidence that we will be strong in close games in the future, however. I hope it is, but I just don't think we have good evidence to say that.
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  18. Jonas
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    Jonas Well-Known Member

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    I'd have to rewatch the games last year, but I def remember a couple where we executed a play really well, and got a high percentage shot or layup and just missed. Was that us "choking" or did we just miss a shot because no shot is 100%? Hard to say when your sample size is so small.
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  19. MadduxFanII
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    MadduxFanII Well-Known Member

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    There were a lot of different things going on last year in the close losses.

    1. Losing by one at Arizona is not exactly the most humiliating defeat possible, for starters. But Wilbekin was playing with a bad thumb and couldn't really handle the point guard duties, so we relied pretty extensively on Bonyton. Basically, we just turned the ball over a lot at the end of both halves.

    2. K-State wasn't an endgame thing; we trailed most of the game.

    3. We fell in love with the three at Missouri.

    4. Again, we trailed most of the way at Tennessee. We had some opportunities to make a comeback at the end, but Boynton, in the midst of a horrific slump, missed an open three with under a minute to go and we never really got back into it.

    5. Baffling offensive shutdown in the last several minutes at Kentucky. I say "baffling" because, save for a bad Boynton jumper on our last possession, we actually took good shots. We missed a staggering number of lay-ups and bunnies at the end of that game.

    6. Against Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament we actually did a reasonable job in the endgame situation; remember, we blew a double digit with about 15 minutes left in the game, then fell behind by six at one point. We handled the last minute or so about as well as possible, and in fact nearly pulled off that "intentionally miss a free throw, grab the rebound, hit a three" play that almost never works.
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  20. Jonas
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    Jonas Well-Known Member

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    damn, we did it again.
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