Warming whoops

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by g8orbill, Sep 17, 2013.

  1. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    I wonder what caused the warming right after the mini-ice age? It seems the globe is going back to temperatures that existed right before the mini-ice age?
  2. sappanama
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    sappanama VIP Member

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    the purple is nearly the same, exactly the point- the prediction is it would be gone, and it is not. don't get distracted by the white stuff. summer ice coverage is down but not so much winter ice
  3. wygator
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    wygator Well-Known Member

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    You're remembering the reports about US temperature history.

    Here were the graphs from NASA/GISS in 1999 showing their temperature history. Note that the 30's were hotter than the '90's:

    [​IMG]

    Here is the same US temp graph today. Note how they adjusted the past downward and the more recent decades upward:

    [​IMG]

    Here's a nifty gif that combines and compares the adjustments made to the graphs to increase the warming trend:

    [​IMG]

    All of these graphs were taken directly from NASA GISS web pages:
    1999
    today

    There used to be a graph on the NASA website that showed the adjustments they'd made over time. They cooled temps before the fifties and increased them after. Couldn't find it tonight, but some on the board will remember them being posted before.
  4. g8orbill
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    g8orbill Gators VIP Member

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    this thread just shows that no mater what the EW's are married to GW and nothing will deter their quest
  5. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Either that or the opposite.
  6. exiledgator
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    exiledgator Gruntled Premium Member

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    Being distracted by the white stuff was the entire point of that meme. Not only is it purposefully misleading, it's also fabricated (unless you can prove to me that there was no snow on the ground in Canada or Russian on January 11, 1980.)

    The images were either doctored or mislabeled. Either one discredits its message as well as the messenger.
  7. rivergator
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    rivergator Well-Known Member

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    More scientists wage in on the Daily Mail story that started this thread saying that, once again the Daily Mail got it completely wrong.

    link
  8. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    The delta in the 1999 temperature data/graphs is startling.

    There is a link to an article that explains at length why adjustments were made, but it is difficult to tell as a lay person whether all of those adjustments are appropriate, and even if we have the background to make that judgment, we don't have access to the actual before and after data to make that kind of analysis. Nor would any of us have the time, I don't think.

    From what I gather from the article, some of the adjustments are to decrease temperatures where they believe they are overstated due to urban warming. Some are to adjust where temperature gathering has been moved into/out of urban areas. Some are to remove outlying readings that would seem to be unrealistic - for instance if you have five neighboring stations with one of them reporting a much higher or much lower temperature than the rest (they used five standard deviations as the threshhold). Some are to level for concentrations of temperature measurement so that temperatures in one specific area aren't weighted higher than temperatures in other areas just because more stations were recording in that area.

    Any of this stuff sounds reasonable on its face, but the fact that the adjustments skewed the data considerably in favor of the AGW theories, is cause to wonder about the legitimacy of how these adjustments were made.
  9. wygator
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    wygator Well-Known Member

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    The challenge that becomes clear from the explanation is the sheer variety of adjustments being made to the original raw temperature data. Time of day adjustments, location adjustments, urban heat island adjustments, smoothing and algorithms...when changes in the average temperature of .2 degree per decade are significant, there is lots of room for mischief that fall well within error bars.

    Here's my biggest concern about how that adjustment graph looks. The urban heat island effect would certainly be considered to be a bigger phenomenon in the second half of the 20th century. Studies have show the UHI to be anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees F in the major cities. Logic would suggest that if you were adjusting temps since 1950, that UHI would be the largest anomaly and that would require downward adjustments. Instead, we see pre-1950 temps adjusted down and post 1950 adjusted up. You also notice a very interesting correlation in the main temperature record graphs and the adjustments graph.

    One more factor. A large number of the important temperature stations are located at airports. What has happened to them the past 70 years? We've gone from grass fields and combustion engines to massive acreage of concrete and jet engines spewing hot air all over the place. I question whether those temperature stations are being adjusted properly as well.
  10. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Wy definitely seems to think that the warming signature might be an artifact manufactured by ex ante adjustments. Like you, I admit that I have no idea whether these adjustments are appropriate. However, we do have some replication of the pattern, from BEST, and probably others, and most of the skeptics seem willing to accept the corrected data (and obviously the climate scientists themselves).

    So I don't know whether to be alarmed by this pattern, but there certainly seems to be some evidence to suggest that this is all legit.
  11. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    As I recall, the BEST study was intended to deal with most all of this. As a novice, I can't really say whether they did a perfect a job of this, but I would certainly trust them more than us to know how to calculate this data.
  12. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    Any time you see a significant "adjustment" of data in favor of a theory, it naturally raises questions. I don't have a problem with that, although as you say, it seems that BEST addressed that.

    Also of note is that global temperatures are definitely warming over that time frame. It wouldn't change the big picture if we haven't warmed much in the U.S.
  13. jimgata
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    jimgata Premium Member

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    Global warming means just that, global. Does one really think that temps from all over the globe are so accurate, as to declare a minute increase in temp, if any, could be based on those records.
    Any change in reported temp in the past as well as now, could throw the models out of whack. They do make adjustments and you can bet most adjustments will lean toward the bias of the ones doing so.
  14. LittleBlueLW
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    LittleBlueLW Well-Known Member

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