Uh-ohz Libs - your boy Nate Silver says odds of GOP taking Senate in '14 are a tossup

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by MastaG8r, Jul 16, 2013.

  1. MastaG8r
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    MastaG8r New Member

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    Yeah, because Conservatives aren't smart like Liberals. See, we Conservatives don't have to be smart because we got all the money so we don't need to use our heads to get by like you clever Liberals do.

    Kinda almost makes you wonder how we got all the money in the first place, what with us being so dumb and all, but we don't concern ourselves much about that. We just enjoy it for what it is.
  2. neisgator
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    neisgator Belligerent Gator

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    Ah yes. I remember. I don't think it was a problematic response? I stand by it.
  3. dangolegators
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    dangolegators Well-Known Member

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    Agreed, conservatives tend to go with 'common sense' and gut feeling more. That's why so many of them were surprised that Romney didn't win the election. If they had looked at the polling data with unbiased eyes they would have been more prepared for the result. But they used their 'common sense' instead. The polls were wrong -- they had to be wrong. Why? Common sense.
  4. MichiGator2002
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    MichiGator2002 VIP Member

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    Y'know, I don't know. There were sound rational bases upon which, as for example Morris did, to assume that the 2008 demographic profile would be an outlier because of a) independent historical significance (although that is now sort of a bitter joke), and b) the general disappointment of the first term. Something can be well reasoned and still ultimately incorrect.
  5. mdgator05
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    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Common sense is a good thing. Using the term "common sense" to cover for ridiculous conclusions based on confirmation bias isn't. That is the difference between "liberal" prognosticators like Nate Silver, who have produced very solid results, and the equivalent "unskewed polls" types of people on the right, who have been rightly ridiculed based on the fact that they used "common sense" in the form of ideological biases leading to badly flawed results.

    Nate Silver's success is not based on telling liberals what they want to hear but rather based on telling people that are interested in the truth what is actually happening and making solid predictions.

    If it is any consolation to those on the right, the free market has functioned exactly as we would all hope it would, rewarding the accurate prognosticator while largely punishing those that claimed to be using "common sense" as a substitute for good methodology.

    Good methodology is not "elitist." It is simply better. Until the political right realizes this and abandons confirmation bias in favor of reality, they will continue to get embarrassed as they were when the results rolled in last November.
  6. MastaG8r
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    MastaG8r New Member

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    Honestly there's really no arguing what you wrote right there, but I expect you'll get one anyway.
  7. dangolegators
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    dangolegators Well-Known Member

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    Well you clearly don't understand what Silver is doing if you think he's just throwing out some early predictions that the repubs might take the senate, just so he can have something show folks that he's unbiased.
  8. mdgator05
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    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    And if we had no ability to actually test that assumption, that might be the best solution. However, reliable polling companies that were handling political affiliation as an outcome variable were not finding that. In fact, they were finding quite the opposite. So you had to actually ignore the real data in favor of a self-serving assumption. Those on the right were willing to do that because they preferred the self-serving assumption to reality.
  9. dangolegators
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    dangolegators Well-Known Member

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    Morris? Morris was just telling all you folks what you wanted to believe, which is what he does because he's a conservative pundit (with an extremely poor track record). The state polls consistently showed an Obama win in the EC. It wasn't just 1 or 2 polls, but the large majority of them. And a few days before the election, the polls were trending even further towards Obama. The result was no surprise to anyone who has any trust in large amounts of factual data and in people who are trained to analyze that data. It's my strongly held opinion that conservatives have a higher tendency (than non conservatives) to chose not to believe what they don't want to believe. We see it time and time again with things like GW and evolution. You have experts who have spent their entire adult lives studying something, and then you have a bunch of conservatives with no expertise at all saying they are wrong. The conservative acrimony towards Silver over his 2012 election forecast is just another case of this.
  10. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    There is nothing problematic if that's your view. However, my claim is that while libertarians should side more with the economic views of American conservatives, they should with be more comfortable with the social views of American liberals.
  11. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    Yeah ok now I'm certainly baffled by being "for social liberties" but against espousing their value?

    Some perplexing value sets, to be sure.

    A true libertarian will likely be equally disgusted by both parties.
  12. mdgator05
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    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    In political prognosticating, the money is currently on the liberals' side. Nate Silver is still working for the New York Times, has written best selling books, has some nice paying speaking engagements, and has a very nice career doing statistical analysis.

    The talking heads that made ridiculous claims based on confirmation bias either returned to the obscurity from whence they came (Chambers) or were made to look foolish and either lost a lot of credibility (Rove) or outright lost their jobs (Dick Morris).

    If there is a consolation for you all, the free market is working efficiently in punishing the conservative prognosticators while rewarding the more accurate liberal prognosticators.
  13. neisgator
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    neisgator Belligerent Gator

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    I didn't say any of that.
  14. MastaG8r
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    MastaG8r New Member

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    I was only kidding, Francis. Which part of "Heh heh :joecool:" did you not understand? Personally I don't really give a rat's ass what :geek: is up to, I just think it's funny how the mention of his name is like a mating call for nerds.
  15. neisgator
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    neisgator Belligerent Gator

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    But, you never call me out for being a libertarian.

    What a joke you are sometimes.

    Semantic gymnastics, here we come...
  16. neisgator
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    neisgator Belligerent Gator

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    Maybe I am guilty of not explaining myself better.
  17. MastaG8r
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    MastaG8r New Member

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    I find you Not Guilty of that offense. However, that doesn't necessarily mean you're innocent. :ninja:
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  18. neisgator
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    neisgator Belligerent Gator

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    :laugh::laugh:

  19. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    Huh? I didn't call you out.
  20. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    I mean, if someone calls themselves a libertarian, they are a libertarian. Not much to call out there.

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