Uh-ohz Libs - your boy Nate Silver says odds of GOP taking Senate in '14 are a tossup

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by MastaG8r, Jul 16, 2013.

  1. mdgator05
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    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Agreed. Numbers aren't biased. If the numbers are used based on solid statistical and theoretical methods developed prior to the observation, you really limit the ability to bias things. Any bias could easily be found through systematic analysis of the predictions. Any systematic analysis of Nate Silver's methods (or the ones used by a couple of University Profs at places like Emory and Princeton) would show very limited bias.

    Conservatives are so jumpy about somebody telling them something they don't want to hear, that a person must be "biased" simply by telling them what they don't want to hear, even if it is true. After the election, when I pointed this out, I was told that if the situation was reversed, you would see liberals acting in a similar manner. However, this thread is evidence against that point. Most responses seem to be that the numbers make a decent amount of sense considering what we know and don't know.

    While I think much of partisan behavior is really a mirror image, this is one of the instances where that is not true. It is the difference between the awful methods and highly questionable assumptions of "unskewed polls" versus the solid methods and limited assumptions of Nate Silver (or other statistical prognosticators). And as would be expected, better methods equal far better results.
  2. GatorNorth
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    GatorNorth Premium Member Premium Member

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    Just curious, I think Obamas legacy will be awful but who are these leadership giants of which you speak and where exactly are they now?
  3. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    What I meant to say is that if Obama-care stays for a little longer then it will insure that the Hildabeast has no chance in getting elected in 2016... not just that, but 2014 sets up really nicely too.
  4. MastaG8r
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    MastaG8r New Member

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    ...unless he's just getting his "sometimes" predictions out of the way now, when it doesn't matter, then when it's closer to the elections he can say, "Me? No, I'm not biased -- sometimes I predict the Republicans might win, too." Heh heh :joecool:
  5. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Damn, I'd like to see a major politician talk like this.
  6. PITBOSS
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    PITBOSS Active Member

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    This is great. A far right winger mocking statistics. And now a statistician is "Your boy". Incredible. And has the audacity to scoff "but what does he know about anything" when this same poster ran around as the town crier on how Mitt would win. Is it any wonder Fox "news" calls stats/math "scientific gobbledygook"? Playing to their base.
  7. neisgator
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    neisgator Belligerent Gator

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    Why? You aren't a libertarian. Not even close.
  8. MastaG8r
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    MastaG8r New Member

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    What are you trying to say? Why don't you just come right out and say it? Is it because it would be against forum rules? lol. Keep it classy! :wink:

    Oh and by the way, what's the definition of a "far right winger" as opposed to, say, a regular garden variety right winger? Just curious.
  9. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Eh, you just think I'm not a libertarian because I often disagree with your logic, and you see yourself as a libertarian. But honestly I wonder the same about you, with your omnipresent disdain of the left, the more socially libertarian party. I come more from the Hayek school of thought, and I am guessing that you probably see yourself more from the Chicago school.
  10. neisgator
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    neisgator Belligerent Gator

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    If you see me as anything other than a hardcore staunch constitutional libertarian you need your eyes checked and a hooked on phonics lesson.

    I can't think of one issue that I disagree with them on.
    You are free to throw a few out to me.
    Hell, I was the one on the DR thread that docs(nor anyone) should have to have a license.
  11. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Well you once told me that only "rarely" is the left the side that is more socially free. To me, that sounds much more like a conservative than a libertarian. But something that I specifically liked from the libertarian party link was this text:

    Notice how it starts with saying people can hold good faith views on all sides. This is not something that I often hear from you. Instead you seem to insult the intelligence of anyone who doesn't totally agree with you, evoking such phrases as needing "hooked on phonics", "inane", "just too dumb", "completely clueless", etc. To me, this also doesn't sound like a libertarian. If all of these people, and I know that I am included, are so completely stupid compared to you, why not promote paternalism?
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  12. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    Abortion is certainly a matter where libertarians diverge, given that those rights that do not violate the natural rights of others are absolute. People tend to disagree on when natural rights are incurred, of course. Hence there are Libertarians who believe abortion should be legal on the grounds that it is an absolute right of the mother that does not violate the rights of another. Others believe that natural rights are incurred at conception.

    There certainly is no clear-cut Libertarian stance on that matter, understandably.
  13. wgbgator
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    wgbgator Sub-optimal Poster Premium Member

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    That's 2 "hooked on phonics" references in less than a week. It's like I'm back in the 1990s.
  14. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    I'm personally divided on it as well, due to the competing views that you mentioned, so I naturally acknowledge some validity on both sides. I don't like the indigence of some people for others that are clearly just trying to save a human life, but nor do I appreciate those that think that they know best about all families choices.
  15. neisgator
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    neisgator Belligerent Gator

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    I don't remember it. I am sure you are simplifying what I said.

    As OBOB said, abortion is the issue I struggle with.
  16. neisgator
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    neisgator Belligerent Gator

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    Dupe
  17. neisgator
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    neisgator Belligerent Gator

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    It's a sign for you
  18. dangolegators
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    dangolegators Well-Known Member

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    In the 2012 senate elections, Silver correctly predicted 31 of the 33 races. For the 2 he missed, he incorrectly picked the republican candidate to win. In 2010, he forecasted the repubs to pick up 53 seats in the house. They ended up picking up 63, but the difference of 10 was well within the margin of error for his model and house races are far more difficult to project.

    But yes, Silver is indeed 'our boy'. He uses data and statistical method to forecast results. Liberals favor that approach. Conservatives on the other hand don't trust what they don't understand.
  19. neisgator
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    neisgator Belligerent Gator

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    Im not interested in carrying the conservatives water here. I am more interested in spilling the liberals water.

    That second half of the post was an exquisite piece of horse crap. What an nose up in the air elitist, bed-wetting attitude. It is called common sense. Something non-liberals understand that liberals cannot/do not/ will not possess.
  20. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    It was a one sentence response, so I don't think that I can simplify it too much.

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