Uh-ohz Libs - your boy Nate Silver says odds of GOP taking Senate in '14 are a tossup

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by MastaG8r, Jul 16, 2013.

  1. MastaG8r
    Offline

    MastaG8r New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    5,039
    Likes Received:
    44
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    305, USA
    Ratings Received:
    +44
    If the GOP somehow captures the Senate in 2014, 0bama will be as lame as a lame duck can be. Quack quack.

    As it looks right now Nate Silver :geek: says its even-money odds.

    Ehhhh...but what does he know about anything? :wink::joecool:

    • Like Like x 1
  2. MastaG8r
    Offline

    MastaG8r New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    5,039
    Likes Received:
    44
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    305, USA
    Ratings Received:
    +44
    Until reading that article I had sort of forgotten that Florida is one of the few states without a Senate election in 2014. Rubio is up for re-election in 2016 (or may run for President) and Nelson is safe until 2018. So we're on the sidelines for this one.
  3. Gatorrick22
    Offline

    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    33,153
    Likes Received:
    2,524
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +4,647
    The longer Obama-tax festers the better the chance of real economic/jobs leadership.
  4. 108
    Online

    108 Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    18,022
    Likes Received:
    371
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    NYC
    Ratings Received:
    +1,398
    don't be surprised to see a few go to the wayside due to primary voters picking far right candidates

  5. MastaG8r
    Offline

    MastaG8r New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    5,039
    Likes Received:
    44
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    305, USA
    Ratings Received:
    +44
    There were a few instances in 2012, and I think even back in the banner GOP year 2010 as well, where the Democrats fielded weak, beatable candidates who still survived because the GOP nominee didn't have enough widespread appeal. Hopefully the Repubs have learned from that and will address it at the primary stage.

    Say what you want about the GOP leadership but they're not completely dumb or else they wouldn't all be so rich. lol
  6. VAg8r1
    Offline

    VAg8r1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    5,956
    Likes Received:
    41
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +159
    I have a great deal of confidence in Silver's predictions, however let's not forget that the election is scheduled for November 2014, not within the next week or so. As 108 alluded to in his post it wouldn't be beyond the Republicans to nominate far right candidates snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. If the Republicans nominated more mainstream candidates Harry Reid and Claire McCaskill would no longer be in the Senate and the Republicans would taken open seats in Delaware (2010) and Indiana (2012).
  7. VAg8r1
    Offline

    VAg8r1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    5,956
    Likes Received:
    41
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +159
    As I just mentioned it was in the GOP manner year of 2010 that the Republicans managed to lose near locks in Nevada and Delaware.
  8. LittleBlueLW
    Offline

    LittleBlueLW Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    5,832
    Likes Received:
    842
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +1,606
    And the two party clusterf&*k continues for the American people either way.

    Great news.
  9. g8orbill
    Offline

    g8orbill Gators VIP Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    71,419
    Likes Received:
    4,666
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Clermont, Fl
    Ratings Received:
    +9,848
    still along way til Nov2014
    • Like Like x 2
  10. MastaG8r
    Offline

    MastaG8r New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    5,039
    Likes Received:
    44
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    305, USA
    Ratings Received:
    +44
    You folks on the Left have put so much stock in Nate Silver :geek: that you better hope he gives biased info favoring the Democrats, like he's been accused of doing. God forbid it gets close to election time and he's predicting that the GOP takes the Senate -- his Liberal followers will accept it as gospel and won't waste their time voting. lol
  11. mdgator05
    Offline

    mdgator05 Premium Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2010
    Messages:
    6,796
    Likes Received:
    199
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +714
    He has been accused by people with an axe to grind of that. His predictions are based on solid numbers. Some people just didn't like what the numbers said, so he is "biased." In the end, there is a reason that those people accusing him of bias were so wrong in their predictions, while he really nailed it (again).

    As to your second point, as his numbers are based on aggregating polling of each race, and Senate races are not run as a single race, it is unlikely his predictions will have much of an impact on turnout in close races, as people will vote in their own close race regardless of what is happening in another state.

    It is not terribly surprising that 6 years after a Democratic landslide, with a 54-46 Senate, that early numbers would put the predictions at approximately 50-50. Numbers at this point are basically an examination of a generalized lay-of-the-land. I would also expect to see a reverse of these numbers in 2015, as Republicans will be defending their landslide.

    We will see what happens as we get closer and the issues for the election begin to take shape.
  12. channingcrowderhungry
    Offline

    channingcrowderhungry Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    4,966
    Likes Received:
    196
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Bottom of a pint glass
    Ratings Received:
    +858
    But... But... This one is going to be the most important election in out lifetime. I can't waste it on a third party.
  13. baygator1
    Offline

    baygator1 Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    5,191
    Likes Received:
    1,487
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +1,871
    The problem is there is little difference between big government republicans and big government democrats. Words like moderate and establishment are often synonymous with an undying devotion to the federal empire at the expense if the bill payers.
    • Like Like x 2
  14. VAg8r1
    Offline

    VAg8r1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    5,956
    Likes Received:
    41
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +159
    Most of the conservatives on this board really aren't against big government. I seriously doubt that they would agree with the Libertarian Party, the real alternative to big government, on the issues of marriage equality, abortion or immigration. From the Party's 2012 platform:

    2012 Libertarian Party Platform

    Libertarian Party
  15. oragator1
    Online

    oragator1 Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    12,776
    Likes Received:
    442
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,677
    The electoral map favors republicans in this cycle. They are on offense and the dems are on defense based on the states in play, who is retiring and who isn't.
    If they can't win the senate in this cycle it's going to be a long while, but I do think the key is who they run, as well as whether the party nationally can be seen as tolerant to women and hispanics in particular, that was an albatross in 2012.
  16. baygator1
    Offline

    baygator1 Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    5,191
    Likes Received:
    1,487
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +1,871
    I'll disagree that most conservatives here support an increasing federal structure and intrusion. I think an increasing chunk are more moderate in their social views, but remain very concerned about the ever increasing scope of the federal government.
  17. HallGator
    Offline

    HallGator Administrator VIP Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    43,640
    Likes Received:
    948
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Outer Limits
    Ratings Received:
    +3,728
    Be kind of hard to accuse Silverman of being biased toward the left if he is making these kind of predictions this far out from the elections.
  18. dadx4
    Offline

    dadx4 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    29,654
    Likes Received:
    531
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Greenville SC
    Ratings Received:
    +1,495
    Husseincare will be the nail in the coffin for the dems for the forseeable future.
    • Like Like x 1
  19. oragator1
    Online

    oragator1 Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    12,776
    Likes Received:
    442
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,677
    Like it was in 2012?
  20. candymanfromgc
    Online

    candymanfromgc Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    5,351
    Likes Received:
    114
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +368
    I don't see any good changes no matter the outcome. Both parties pro big government, less freedom more oversight. They all suck.
    • Like Like x 1

Share This Page