Uh-ohz Libs - your boy Nate Silver says odds of GOP taking Senate in '14 are a tossup

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by MastaG8r, Jul 16, 2013.

  1. MastaG8r
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    MastaG8r New Member

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    If the GOP somehow captures the Senate in 2014, 0bama will be as lame as a lame duck can be. Quack quack.

    As it looks right now Nate Silver :geek: says its even-money odds.

    Ehhhh...but what does he know about anything? :wink::joecool:

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  2. MastaG8r
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    MastaG8r New Member

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    Until reading that article I had sort of forgotten that Florida is one of the few states without a Senate election in 2014. Rubio is up for re-election in 2016 (or may run for President) and Nelson is safe until 2018. So we're on the sidelines for this one.
  3. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    The longer Obama-tax festers the better the chance of real economic/jobs leadership.
  4. 108
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    108 Premium Member

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    don't be surprised to see a few go to the wayside due to primary voters picking far right candidates

  5. MastaG8r
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    MastaG8r New Member

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    There were a few instances in 2012, and I think even back in the banner GOP year 2010 as well, where the Democrats fielded weak, beatable candidates who still survived because the GOP nominee didn't have enough widespread appeal. Hopefully the Repubs have learned from that and will address it at the primary stage.

    Say what you want about the GOP leadership but they're not completely dumb or else they wouldn't all be so rich. lol
  6. VAg8r1
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    VAg8r1 Well-Known Member

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    I have a great deal of confidence in Silver's predictions, however let's not forget that the election is scheduled for November 2014, not within the next week or so. As 108 alluded to in his post it wouldn't be beyond the Republicans to nominate far right candidates snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. If the Republicans nominated more mainstream candidates Harry Reid and Claire McCaskill would no longer be in the Senate and the Republicans would taken open seats in Delaware (2010) and Indiana (2012).
  7. VAg8r1
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    VAg8r1 Well-Known Member

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    As I just mentioned it was in the GOP manner year of 2010 that the Republicans managed to lose near locks in Nevada and Delaware.
  8. LittleBlueLW
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    LittleBlueLW Premium Member

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    And the two party clusterf&*k continues for the American people either way.

    Great news.
  9. g8orbill
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    still along way til Nov2014
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  10. MastaG8r
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    MastaG8r New Member

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    You folks on the Left have put so much stock in Nate Silver :geek: that you better hope he gives biased info favoring the Democrats, like he's been accused of doing. God forbid it gets close to election time and he's predicting that the GOP takes the Senate -- his Liberal followers will accept it as gospel and won't waste their time voting. lol
  11. mdgator05
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    He has been accused by people with an axe to grind of that. His predictions are based on solid numbers. Some people just didn't like what the numbers said, so he is "biased." In the end, there is a reason that those people accusing him of bias were so wrong in their predictions, while he really nailed it (again).

    As to your second point, as his numbers are based on aggregating polling of each race, and Senate races are not run as a single race, it is unlikely his predictions will have much of an impact on turnout in close races, as people will vote in their own close race regardless of what is happening in another state.

    It is not terribly surprising that 6 years after a Democratic landslide, with a 54-46 Senate, that early numbers would put the predictions at approximately 50-50. Numbers at this point are basically an examination of a generalized lay-of-the-land. I would also expect to see a reverse of these numbers in 2015, as Republicans will be defending their landslide.

    We will see what happens as we get closer and the issues for the election begin to take shape.
  12. channingcrowderhungry
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    channingcrowderhungry Well-Known Member

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    But... But... This one is going to be the most important election in out lifetime. I can't waste it on a third party.
  13. baygator1
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    baygator1 Premium Member

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    The problem is there is little difference between big government republicans and big government democrats. Words like moderate and establishment are often synonymous with an undying devotion to the federal empire at the expense if the bill payers.
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  14. VAg8r1
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    VAg8r1 Well-Known Member

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    Most of the conservatives on this board really aren't against big government. I seriously doubt that they would agree with the Libertarian Party, the real alternative to big government, on the issues of marriage equality, abortion or immigration. From the Party's 2012 platform:

    2012 Libertarian Party Platform

    Libertarian Party
  15. oragator1
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    oragator1 Premium Member

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    The electoral map favors republicans in this cycle. They are on offense and the dems are on defense based on the states in play, who is retiring and who isn't.
    If they can't win the senate in this cycle it's going to be a long while, but I do think the key is who they run, as well as whether the party nationally can be seen as tolerant to women and hispanics in particular, that was an albatross in 2012.
  16. baygator1
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    baygator1 Premium Member

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    I'll disagree that most conservatives here support an increasing federal structure and intrusion. I think an increasing chunk are more moderate in their social views, but remain very concerned about the ever increasing scope of the federal government.
  17. HallGator
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    Be kind of hard to accuse Silverman of being biased toward the left if he is making these kind of predictions this far out from the elections.
  18. dadx4
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    dadx4 Well-Known Member

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    Husseincare will be the nail in the coffin for the dems for the forseeable future.
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  19. oragator1
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    Like it was in 2012?
  20. candymanfromgc
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    I don't see any good changes no matter the outcome. Both parties pro big government, less freedom more oversight. They all suck.
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