UF's schedule and expectations

Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by InstiGATOR1, Nov 3, 2013.

  1. InstiGATOR1
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    InstiGATOR1 Active Member

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    I have found one way to keep an even keel during the season is to examine the schedule to see where the wins and losses are. That way I can see if UF is ahead or behind schedule. So here goes:

    North Florida, W, 1-0
    at Wisconsin, L, 1-1, a very tough place to win. I had this as a loss before any suspensions.
    Arkansas–Little Rock, W, 2-1
    Southern, W, 3-1
    Middle Tennessee, W, 4-1
    at Jacksonville, W, 5-1
    Florida State, W, 6-1, UF needs to win this one given what is coming.
    at Connecticut, W, 7-1, This is the road game I think UF can get pre-SEC.
    Kansas, W, 8-1, A home game against a young but talented team.
    Memphis (NYC), W, 9-1, Neutral site game that I think UF will win.
    Fresno State (Sunrise, FL), L, 9-2, UF's annual last game before Christmas loss
    Savannah State, W, 10-2
    Richmond, W, 11-2

    So that is 11-2 before the SEC schedule. Now UF might lose to UConn or Memphis and beat Fresno. Also 10-3 with this schedule would be fine. Anything worse and I will be concerned.

    I like to break the SEC up into groups of games. I will try 3 groups of 6 with the 18 game schedule:

    South Carolina, W, 1-0, 12-2
    at Arkansas , W, 2-0, 13-2, they lost a lot after last season.
    Georgia, W, 3-0, 14-2
    at Auburn, W, 4-0, 15-2
    at Alabama, W, 5-0, 16-2, UF seems to have UAL's number recently and they had some offseason surprise losses.
    Tennessee, W, 6-0, 17-2, I worry about this because UF always struggles with these guys no matter how bad their pre-conference play is.

    So I have UF starting 6-0

    at Mississippi State, W, 7-0, 18-2 they are still building back and UF should still be able to win there.
    Texas A&M, W, 8-0, 19-2
    Missouri, W, 9-0, 20-2
    Alabama, W, 10-0, 21-2
    at Tenessee, L, 10-1, 21-3, naturally.
    at Kentucky, L, 10-2, 21-4, at two game losing streak.

    I have UF going 4-2 in this set of six games.

    Auburn, W, 11-2, 21-4
    at Ole Miss, W, 12-2, 22-4, they lost their big that made them good last year.
    at Vanderbilt, W, 13-2, 23-4 they are struggling
    LSU, W, 14-2, 24-4, they building but it is a home game.
    at South Carolina, L, 15-3, 24-6 Martin may just have them ready to beat UF there late in the season.
    Kentucky, W, 15-3, 25-5

    I have UF going 5-1 in this set of six games.

    Overall I have UF going 11-2 and 15-3 in the SEC for a 25-5 record. I could see it being 10-3 and 14-4 in the SEC with a loss in one of the first set of six, UTn at home or at UAR or at UAL are the candidates for a 24-7 record. If UF falls behind the 24-7 pace, I will begin to worry. My view is it will take that to get a bid with a decent seed this year.

    I would be happy to read comments, disputes and other opinions on how this season will unfold.
  2. GatorPlanet
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    GatorPlanet Well-Known Member

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    I have no doubt that the Gators will be VERY good by March, one of the teams to watch in the tournament. However, this is the first season in many that I really don't have a feel for what the final record will be. There are so many unknowns with illness, suspension, eligibility, and injuries right now, we might pile up many losses before we get good. Heck, for all we know, Frasier might miss 2 months before he can play. I think your early-season assessment is overly optimistic.
  3. GatoRella
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    GatoRella Premium Member

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    If we go 4-0 against FSU, UConn, KU, and Memphis, I'll by you a beer!
  4. REM08
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    REM08 Well-Known Member

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    I don't disagree with your record, but would probably nit pick some of the games. Beat Kansas and Kentucky, lose to Fresno St? I know every team has some odd ones throughout the year, but I don't know.

    And, like I've said in other threads, if UF is better in 4 out of 5 (or 5 out of 5) positions, better coach, better depth, better experience than another team - you can't split with that team IMO unless the loss is an utter disappointment/fluke.

    Still though, I like the thought of predicting schedules/outcomes and odder things have come to pass than this season ending up how you predict.
  5. corpgator
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    corpgator Well-Known Member

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    No way you can predict past the first game even with our situation.
  6. austingtr
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    austingtr VIP Member

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    There are always unforeseen circumstances. Injuries for one. I think this is a nice exercise, but I don't think you can predict how things will play out. Chit always happens, there is always good and bad luck.
  7. rserina
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    rserina VIP Member

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    The roster instability right now makes this season much harder to project. When will the three suspended kids get back permanently? When will Yeguete and Carter get up to full speed? Will Walker get eligible? How long will it take us to establish a firm rotation once all that happens? I suspect it could be bumpier Nov-Dec-Jan than expected. Then again, maybe not, precisely because there is no way to know what our roster will look like in a given game.
  8. BA69MA72
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    BA69MA72 Member

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    Because of injuries and transfers Fresno State has very little up front. They're picked 8-9 in the Mountain West.
  9. InstiGATOR1
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    InstiGATOR1 Active Member

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    I agree which is why I look at if UF is ahead or behind schedule not individual games so much. Also as you say luck plays into it and if UF were to say get a head of schedule by beating Wisconsin, then I could see a bad game later.

    Yeah, I hesitated on that one as I suggested. Still UF always loses the last game before the Christmas break. So I called it a loss. Still if UF loses to Memphis in NYC, then maybe they have their mind on the game not the break this year.
  10. themistocles
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    themistocles Well-Known Member

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    Interesting analysis Insti, as usual. I would note that Wilbekin will miss the FSU game. I doubt that Hill will be ready to guide the team that early.

    Wilbekin will be back in his first action against Connecticut, Kansas and Memphis - it usually takes a while for a team to adjust, although he will have been practicing with them. Those are likely to be 4 very difficult games in succession. Going 4-0 there would really be something.

    Regarding the SEC - I think that 3 losses is probably about right. Nothing is easy in the conference, but this team should be pretty good.

    25-5 may be close to right, it could well occur. However, as others noted, far too many unknowns right now to really project very accurately.
  11. InstiGATOR1
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    InstiGATOR1 Active Member

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    My guess is wibekin will be back for Jacksonville.
  12. InstiGATOR1
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    InstiGATOR1 Active Member

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    Sorry double post. I am a relative newbie at posting from my cell.
  13. flwgator2
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    flwgator2 Active Member

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    I predict we win two of Wisconsin, Kansas, Memphis, and Connecticut. Billy Donovan's teams usually struggle against teams with length. I wouldn't be surprised if Tennessee sweeps us. Our 3 point D won't be as good as last year; there will be a game where our opponent shoot out of their mind. I think we beat Kentucky on Senior day.

    So, I had 24-6 (14-4 in SEC) and #3 seed.
  14. themistocles
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    themistocles Well-Known Member

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    Really - that would be terrific for the overall benefit of the team. And Billy D. might possible do it for a senior who really has done nothing wrong except in the idiotic eyes of an idiotic law.

    Would certainly show wisdom on Billy D's part.
  15. oneatatime
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    oneatatime Well-Known Member

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    all bets are off beyond the first game, until we know when the 2 suspended bigs can return
  16. InstiGATOR1
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    InstiGATOR1 Active Member

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    Really I can not say that I believe Donovan's teams struggle against length. Pearls teams were not lengthy, but were very defensively tough.

    Certainly I would not be shocked if UTn swept UF. You final record would certainly be fine to me.

    The suspensions have all been announced as indefinite. I though I had heard from some official source, ie maybe on the broadcast the other night, that Finney-Smith and Harris would be back for Wisconsin. Well if they miss two games, I could see Wilbekin missing only 4 or 5.
  17. InstiGATOR1
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    InstiGATOR1 Active Member

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    Sorry I missed this post earier.

    1. Could you tell me which multiple position you logically believe Robert Morris was better than UK last season? Or perhaps you want to argue the Robert Morris coach is superior to Calipari?

    2. In addition, it is a common feeling that one plays 5 on 8 at Rupp Arena. I do not think even with UF better at 5 positions that it will overcome UK have the advantage at the 3 positions in striped shirts.
  18. REM08
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    REM08 Well-Known Member

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    Haha. That explains it! No further explanation needed.

    I guess because of those cheating refs, we'll just have to look at other measurables in order to see how accurately you've assessed the differences between Florida and UK.
  19. ofmgator
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    ofmgator Well-Known Member

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    The nice thing about Basketball is that you have a chance if you make the big dance and we will make it. Then you 'd like a reasonably good/high seed and we should get a top three seed. We need to avoid injuries and get the young guys involved asap.
  20. MadduxFanII
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    MadduxFanII Well-Known Member

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    It's tough to predict specific results right now simply because of the roster churn we're looking at. Predictions require, at a bare minimum, a sense of who's going to be on the court, and we can't really speak to that with any confidence at the moment.

    I am really excited about this team, and I think we have a degree of size, length and athleticism that we've lacked the last couple years. I'm confident that we'll end up a really, really good team with a realistic chance to make a deep run in the tournament. That's about all I can put forward right now.

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