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Discussion in 'Swamp Gas' started by formerg8er, Oct 6, 2013.
LSU is favored and so be it. My pure guess at the score is 25-17 Gators win.
I call this one a toss up with LSU having the home field.
There plusses for LSU to me are:
1. Vastly improved QB play. We have NOT generated consistently hellacious pass rush and oppossing QB's have been clean way too much. They will hit some big plays for sure..so our db's need to be opportunistic to pick a couple. Plus our DL needs to get their hands up to block sight lines.
2. Les Miles. He can coach and his gambling style makes him fun, but more importantly dangerous. He plays to win and I respect that.
3. They will play 8 in the box and try to disguise coverages banking on Murphy making a mistake. It may work. UF just needs to stick with power running and make them need that safety up for run support and then go up top.
4. Kicking game. They must return balls effectively on KO's and punts and get good starting position. UF has the best defense they will have played this year and long drives will be tough for them to sustain. They need momentum, breaks, good calls from the refs, a few dumb penalties by us, and 3 turnovers, and a missed fg.
I'm hoping the line goes to 8-10 points--I may get some of that action.
Plusees for UF:
1. OL vs their DL. We blew them off the ball last year in the 2nd half. Think our OL has gotten stronger and they have new starters all across the line. If we can control the ball and run it inside the 20 we have a good chance here.
2. Joyer and Ajagbe. Our FB's have been solid and we need them in the game plan for lead blocking on the counter trey and protecting Murphy on the drop back. If we can keep him clean we will hit long gainers.
3. Ball control. If we can hold the ball and get 20 more snaps than they do we can keep the arm of Mettenberger cold.
The betting line as of this morning is down to 6.5 points.
Excellent post as always, but I feel strangely confident going into Red Stick. Our defense is flat legitimate, and our offense, while not explosive, is doing what Boom wants it to do. I love Jeff, but I feel better with Tyler in there. It is a feeling of confidence and creeping optimism, something I haven't felt since the Tebow/Leak/Grossman (on his good days) era.
I think Gators win straight up, by a score of 24-17.
LSU is going to be a hard game for us to win. Some of the throws that Mettenberger is making right now are better than a lot of the throws you're seeing pro QBs make. The LSU offense is for real. I've seen them several times this year, and had a chance to watch their replay against Mississippi State early Sunday morning. They absolutely have the ability to move the ball against our front 6/7, and their passing game is good enough to be effective against our defensive backs. Landry and Beckham might be the two best receivers we see this season. And Mettenberger is making throws that are unreal right now to those two.
It's a winnable game for us, but we don't have a shot if we can't get to Mettenberger rushing four or five guys.
There are a lot of QB's who can stand in the pocket and deliver a nice ball in rhythm. Can Mets do it when the rush is fierce and the window is small? Can he roll away from pressure and make big plays? I am not conceding anything to any college QB until I see them do it against us.
Don't forget....our history is pretty good in Tiger stadium. We have had some big wins there and I think the Gators have as good a winning percentage there as just about anyone. Defense wins big games and we have a better defense than LSU. TM will have to play well and the offense needs to limits mistakes. If they do, and we play our game on defense, I think we can win this game. Lets say....UF 24 - LSU 17.
I don't know. It may have been a slightly different game save for the Arkansas WRs drops. LSU won't drop those and will pose a formidable passing O. And we better not fall down 7-0 early at their place...
Wait wait....if they give us 7 points to start the game, that means we have the lead and can run out the clock starting with the first play from scrimmage!!
I also called this game a toss up, but I think the Gators will pull it out.
Message to our special teams coach: Watch out for the onside kick and the fake field-goal attempts. Les Miles loves that crap and we've already been burned once this year on it.
Anyone have a feel for how good LSU's secondary is? I sure hope our run game works. This would be a great game to be pleasantly surprised. We all have to remember that as good as Murphy's been all QBs have games that are sub par to their abilities. Lets hope that happens on LSU's side, not ours.
And Rick, I agree with you. Our kick off receiving formation was begging for the onside kick from Arky.
Over the last two seasons, there has been a refreshing trend of defensive adjustments. TAMU in 2012 was another great example. Also, the Miami game this season saw the defense recover from some early problems.
Agreed. We could choose to focus on the defensive issues at the beginning of games, but I think it makes more sense to be impressed by the domination of the rest of the games.
Yep, and our special teams has been not too special this year, also. We need to tighten up in that department.
You have to expect to get the opposition's best shot early in the game. They game plan and work all week on exploiting some things they have seen.
I was thinking 3 myself.
Personally, I feel compelled to pick LSU since they're at home, but I also think our defense can really limit their offense's ability to score. After watching UT score so much on Georgia and Arkie score so much on A&M, then the Gator D just lock down on both of those offenses (they both scored only one offensive TD), I can easily call this game a toss-up.
Then, there's the fact that LSU's defense is nowhere along the lines of the Tigger D's we've seen the last few years.
I think the magic number in this game 20 points. If we can hold LSU to 20 or less points, I think the Gators win.
Some great games have been played between LSU and UF in Death Valley.
Two of the best have been the 1997 game when LSU upset No. 1 Florida in an epic night game, the other was the 2007 game when Les was 5 for 5 on 4th down conversions.
I was there for both games, and they were both awesome.