UF #2 in one computer poll.

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by g8trchamp, Oct 10, 2013.

  1. exiledgator
    Online

    exiledgator Gruntled Premium Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2010
    Messages:
    9,660
    Likes Received:
    824
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Maine
    Ratings Received:
    +2,744
    UF v Bama @ Neutral site: UF wins 25.7 - 6.7
  2. grumpy_gator
    Offline

    grumpy_gator New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2013
    Messages:
    886
    Likes Received:
    74
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    Ratings Received:
    +74
    The formula seems to relate to TOP, the amount of wood chucked by woodchucks and some Miley Cyrus coefficient I cannot understand ...
    • Like Like x 1
  3. exiledgator
    Online

    exiledgator Gruntled Premium Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2010
    Messages:
    9,660
    Likes Received:
    824
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Maine
    Ratings Received:
    +2,744
    UF v Oregon @ Neutral site: UF loses 23.4 - 22.9
    UF v tOSU @ Neutral site: UF wins 25.9 - 11.3
    UF v Stanford @ Neutral site: UF wins 19.1 - 9.5
    UF v Louisville @ Neutral site: UF eeks out win 18.2 - 16.3
  4. exiledgator
    Online

    exiledgator Gruntled Premium Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2010
    Messages:
    9,660
    Likes Received:
    824
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Maine
    Ratings Received:
    +2,744
    There you have it. On to recruiting season.

    Oh and, Go Cardinal!
  5. tilly
    Online

    tilly Superhero Moderator VIP Member

    Joined:
    May 31, 2007
    Messages:
    20,716
    Likes Received:
    1,154
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Wilmington, NC via FLA
    Ratings Received:
    +3,876
    You guys are nuts. This poll is awesome.
    We will win the title in this poll and claim it like Bama baby!
    • Like Like x 1
  6. OaktownGator
    Offline

    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    26,084
    Likes Received:
    2,357
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +6,607
    Testing out the predictions

    It's still too early in the season for the data to be real good, but for kicks, let's see how this thing does for this weekend.

    It predicted:
    Louisville over Rutgers - 45.2 to 15.8
    - Actual = 24-10
    - margin was off by ~ two TDs, although Louisville left a couple TDs on the field
    - score was roughly 60% lower than predicted score... 21 points lower for winning team and 6 points lower for losing team ​
    USC over Arizona - 22.6 to 14.8
    - Actual = 38-31
    - margin was right
    - actual score was ~16 points higher than predicted for both teams ​

    Some of the more interesting games it would predict (predictions rounded for readability):
    Kentucky over Bama - 34 to 26
    - Huge upset! ... this is where I think it is most apparent that lack of context for RZ conversion, TO margin and Special Teams kills this ranking system. Interestingly, the same model predicts we would win 28-14 if we played UK again in Lexington... which is pretty close to the 24-7 score we came out with.
    - Actual =

    Florida over LSU - 27 to 16
    - another big upset... and very close to my 27-17 prediction
    - Actual =​
    UGA over Mizzou - 47 to 24
    - although there is no way for this computer model to account for the UGA injuries
    - Actual =​
    USCe over Arky - 29 to 17
    - Actual =​
    A&M over Ole Miss - 49 to 37
    - Actual =​
    Miss St over Bowling Green - 39 to 23
    - Actual =​

    Pitt over VA Tech - 20 to 15
    - another upset prediction (line is VA Tech by 8)
    - Actual =​
    NC State over Syracuse - 35 to 26
    - Actual =​
    Maryland over UVA - 26 to 8
    - Actual =​
    BYU over GA Tech - 30 to 13
    - Actual =​

    Oklahoma over Texas - 42 to 26
    - Actual =​
    Baylor over Kansas State - 57 to 27
    - Actual =​
    Iowa State over Texas Tech - 23 to 21
    - big upset (lines is Texas Tech by 14.5)
    - Actual =​

    Wisconsin over Northwestern - 45 to 19
    - huge upset blow out prediction! (line is Northwestern by 10)
    - Actual =​
    Penn State over Michigan - 23 to 14
    - another upset (line is Mich by 3)
    - Actual =​
    Mich St over Indiana - 23 to 16
    - Actual =​

    Stanford over Utah - 33 to 32
    - prediction is way closer than most would think (line is 7.5)
    - Actual =​
    Oregon over Washington - 31 to 28
    - prediction is way closer than most would think (line is 13.5)
    - Actual = ​
    UCLA over Cal - 28 to 18
    - Actual =
    - prediction is way closer than most would think (line is 25)​
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2013
  7. dhender02
    Offline

    dhender02 Premium Member

    Joined:
    May 28, 2007
    Messages:
    88
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    8
    Ratings Received:
    +3
    roflmao!!!!! +1
  8. grumpy_gator
    Offline

    grumpy_gator New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2013
    Messages:
    886
    Likes Received:
    74
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    Ratings Received:
    +74
    BBQ at Jaxgator's ... always a good time!

    [​IMG]
  9. tilly
    Online

    tilly Superhero Moderator VIP Member

    Joined:
    May 31, 2007
    Messages:
    20,716
    Likes Received:
    1,154
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Wilmington, NC via FLA
    Ratings Received:
    +3,876
    According to this photo, West Virginia must have won something!?
  10. trufloridagator
    Offline

    trufloridagator VIP Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    6,123
    Likes Received:
    7
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Ratings Received:
    +30
    It's not a poll.

    It's a metric. A metric one could use for say sports betting to evaluate a teams value vs a spread when an appropriate sample size has been reached. It's simply one metric to be used in evaluating a matchup.

    It's specific outcomes are not meant to nail a score, there is a level of variance....

    It's a tool that could be used, and I think it has value if you use it correctly. Not yet though or at least factor it in Very little.

    Sent from my iPhone using GatorCountry
    • Like Like x 1
  11. gatorr4life
    Offline

    gatorr4life Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    23,514
    Likes Received:
    464
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,714
    Lol!!!!!!!!! Awesome..... Well done

Share This Page