UF #2 in one computer poll.

Discussion in 'Swamp Gas' started by g8trchamp, Oct 10, 2013.

  1. exiledgator
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    exiledgator Gruntled Premium Member

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    UF v Bama @ Neutral site: UF wins 25.7 - 6.7
  2. grumpy_gator
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    grumpy_gator New Member

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    The formula seems to relate to TOP, the amount of wood chucked by woodchucks and some Miley Cyrus coefficient I cannot understand ...
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  3. exiledgator
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    exiledgator Gruntled Premium Member

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    UF v Oregon @ Neutral site: UF loses 23.4 - 22.9
    UF v tOSU @ Neutral site: UF wins 25.9 - 11.3
    UF v Stanford @ Neutral site: UF wins 19.1 - 9.5
    UF v Louisville @ Neutral site: UF eeks out win 18.2 - 16.3
  4. exiledgator
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    exiledgator Gruntled Premium Member

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    There you have it. On to recruiting season.

    Oh and, Go Cardinal!
  5. tilly
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    tilly Superhero Moderator VIP Member

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    You guys are nuts. This poll is awesome.
    We will win the title in this poll and claim it like Bama baby!
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  6. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    Testing out the predictions

    It's still too early in the season for the data to be real good, but for kicks, let's see how this thing does for this weekend.

    It predicted:
    Louisville over Rutgers - 45.2 to 15.8
    - Actual = 24-10
    - margin was off by ~ two TDs, although Louisville left a couple TDs on the field
    - score was roughly 60% lower than predicted score... 21 points lower for winning team and 6 points lower for losing team ​
    USC over Arizona - 22.6 to 14.8
    - Actual = 38-31
    - margin was right
    - actual score was ~16 points higher than predicted for both teams ​

    Some of the more interesting games it would predict (predictions rounded for readability):
    Kentucky over Bama - 34 to 26
    - Huge upset! ... this is where I think it is most apparent that lack of context for RZ conversion, TO margin and Special Teams kills this ranking system. Interestingly, the same model predicts we would win 28-14 if we played UK again in Lexington... which is pretty close to the 24-7 score we came out with.
    - Actual =

    Florida over LSU - 27 to 16
    - another big upset... and very close to my 27-17 prediction
    - Actual =​
    UGA over Mizzou - 47 to 24
    - although there is no way for this computer model to account for the UGA injuries
    - Actual =​
    USCe over Arky - 29 to 17
    - Actual =​
    A&M over Ole Miss - 49 to 37
    - Actual =​
    Miss St over Bowling Green - 39 to 23
    - Actual =​

    Pitt over VA Tech - 20 to 15
    - another upset prediction (line is VA Tech by 8)
    - Actual =​
    NC State over Syracuse - 35 to 26
    - Actual =​
    Maryland over UVA - 26 to 8
    - Actual =​
    BYU over GA Tech - 30 to 13
    - Actual =​

    Oklahoma over Texas - 42 to 26
    - Actual =​
    Baylor over Kansas State - 57 to 27
    - Actual =​
    Iowa State over Texas Tech - 23 to 21
    - big upset (lines is Texas Tech by 14.5)
    - Actual =​

    Wisconsin over Northwestern - 45 to 19
    - huge upset blow out prediction! (line is Northwestern by 10)
    - Actual =​
    Penn State over Michigan - 23 to 14
    - another upset (line is Mich by 3)
    - Actual =​
    Mich St over Indiana - 23 to 16
    - Actual =​

    Stanford over Utah - 33 to 32
    - prediction is way closer than most would think (line is 7.5)
    - Actual =​
    Oregon over Washington - 31 to 28
    - prediction is way closer than most would think (line is 13.5)
    - Actual = ​
    UCLA over Cal - 28 to 18
    - Actual =
    - prediction is way closer than most would think (line is 25)​
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2013
  7. dhender02
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    dhender02 Member

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    roflmao!!!!! +1
  8. grumpy_gator
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    grumpy_gator New Member

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    BBQ at Jaxgator's ... always a good time!

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  9. tilly
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    tilly Superhero Moderator VIP Member

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    According to this photo, West Virginia must have won something!?
  10. trufloridagator
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    trufloridagator VIP Member

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    It's not a poll.

    It's a metric. A metric one could use for say sports betting to evaluate a teams value vs a spread when an appropriate sample size has been reached. It's simply one metric to be used in evaluating a matchup.

    It's specific outcomes are not meant to nail a score, there is a level of variance....

    It's a tool that could be used, and I think it has value if you use it correctly. Not yet though or at least factor it in Very little.

    Sent from my iPhone using GatorCountry
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  11. gatorr4life
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    gatorr4life Well-Known Member

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    Lol!!!!!!!!! Awesome..... Well done

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