Turnover stats are for losers

Discussion in 'Swamp Gas' started by grumpy_gator, Oct 1, 2013.

  1. grumpy_gator

    grumpy_gator New Member

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    Some stats for us that like stats, about turnover (TO) margin and losing games (hence "losers") ...

    I have 2012 FBS data for 838 games. Out of those 838 games, 162 games had a TO margin of zero (i.e., both teams had the same number of TO's) and 676 games involved a non-zero TO margin.

    Data for 676 games is below from the perspective of the team with more TO's. Out of the 676 games, 509 games (75%) were lost by the team with -1 or worse TO margin.

    TO Margin … Games … Losses … Pct
    -1 … 293 …. 191 ….. 65%
    -2 … 195 …. 154 ….. 79%
    -3 … 123 …. 105 ….. 85%
    -4 …. 47 …... 41 ….. 87%
    -5 …. 13 ..... 13 …. 100%
    -6 ….. 3 ....... 3 …. 100%
    -7 ….. 2 ....... 2 …. 100%
    Tot .. 676 .. 509 ... 75%
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  2. OaktownGator

    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    Even just being one down you lose two out of three times.... two down and it's four out of five times. And on.

    Have to protect the ball.

    May be cliche, but it's also truth.
  3. gtj31

    gtj31 Active Member

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    Nice stats. Pretty much explains why UF lost the 2 games they did last year and the 1 so far this year.
  4. grumpy_gator

    grumpy_gator New Member

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    Here's just the SEC games from last year ...

    Out of 57 games, 48 had non-zero TO margin. The team with negative TO margin lost 37 (77%) of the games ... very similar to all of FBS.

    TO Margin … Games … Losses … Pct
    -1 … 22 … 16 …. 73%
    -2 … 12 …. 9 …. 75%
    -3 ….. 8 …. 7 …. 88%
    -4 ….. 4 …. 3 …. 75%
    -5 ….. 2 …. 2 … 100%
    Tot .. 48 .. 37 .. 77%
  5. slayerxing

    slayerxing Premium Member

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    Cool stats. Even more pronounced in the SEC. If Florida protects the football, with this defense, they will win a lot of games.

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