Top-heavy SEC has Kentucky as favorite

Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by InstiGATOR1, Oct 10, 2013.

  1. InstiGATOR1
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    InstiGATOR1 Well-Known Member

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    CBS's SEC preview is out and of course they slurp UK. Here is an excerpt:

    Here is the link:

    http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...eviews-top-heavy-sec-has-kentucky-as-favorite
  2. InstiGATOR1
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    InstiGATOR1 Well-Known Member

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    This quote from an unnamed coach on UF is quite interesting too:

  3. MadduxFanII
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    MadduxFanII Well-Known Member

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    I don't know if you're being clever again, but the link is to the 2012 preview.
  4. InstiGATOR1
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    InstiGATOR1 Well-Known Member

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    Oops, I guess I screwed up again. It is so easy when they say the same things year after year. Here is the 2013-14 CBS UK slurping:

    http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...09/college-basketball-conference-previews-sec

    Here is the start of the 2013 preseason UK "analysis":

    and as I quoted above here is the start of the 2012 UK preseason "analysis":

    The rest of each "analysis" is the names and CBS slurping of the names which of course mostly differ from year to year at UK.
  5. REM08
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    REM08 Well-Known Member

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    I don't follow the logic that because Kentucky was favored to win the conference last year (and didn't), that this means its not logical to assume the same this year. I'll agree with insti that its hard to do the prediction stuff with a roster that turns over year to year, but what weighs more heavily in my mind is the fact that in Cal's four years at UK, he's either won the conference or gone to the final four in three of those years.

    If you consider last years UK class as being similar to this years, then I'd completely agree that this is ridiculous.

    But insti, going into this season, you've said you'd pick Florida at every single position (with the "possible" exception of PF) over Kentucky. I've also assumed you'd pick Florida's depth, experience and coaching over Kentucky's. I wouldn't agree with some of these points, but I respect your opinion. My question is how many of these last 4 years would you have said the same thing? My guess is most if not all of them you'd have picked more UF players than UK players and taken UF's coaching, depth and experience as well. Doesn't this have to make contrary opinions (like CBS's recent prediction) less illogical in your eyes?
  6. ThePlayer
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    ThePlayer VIP Member

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    Surprise surprise.
  7. InstiGATOR1
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    InstiGATOR1 Well-Known Member

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    1. I am pointing out that while UK gets picked EVERY year by CBS and other sites, UF has in fact won the SEC two of those 4 years.

    2. Lets look at UK's two classes:

    PG: 2012: Harrow (Transfer, 2010 RSCI 22) 2013: A. Harrison (RSCI 5)
    SG: 2012: Goodwin (RSCI 10), 2013: A. Harrison (RSCI 6)
    SF: 2012: Poythress (RSCI 8), 2013: Young (RSCI 9)
    PF: 2012: Cauley-Stein (RSCI 38), 2013 Randle (RSCI: 2)
    C: 2012: Noel (RSCI 1), Johnson (RSCI 9)

    So we can compare the two years keeping in mind that Harrow as a transfer was a new player to UK last season and that comparisons across years are less certain than comparisons within a year.

    PG: Harrow was a highly recruited reasonably successful at NCSU as a frosh guy while A. Harrison is an unknown in college. I guess you can give a small edge to 2013, but how much of that is due to how big a disaster Harrow actually was?

    SG: Goodwin and A. Harrison is about a push.

    SF: Poythress and Young is certainly a push.

    PF: Randle is viewed better than Cauley-Stein was.

    C: Noel was certainly viewed better than Johnson is.

    Returnees: Mayes (a transfer) and Wiltjer v. Poythress, Lee (a signee not listed above) and Cauley-Stein probably give the edge to 2013.

    So I see one clear edge for 2012 at C and a clear edge for 2013 at PF. Other than that I see a small edge for 2013 in depth. I do not really see A. Harrsion at PG being viewed at better than Harrow was a year ago. So I guess the answer is yes, I see this UK roster as being similar to last years UK roster heading into the season.

    3. Let's see in pre-season 2012, I probably would have taken Poythress at SF over UF's situation at SF. In pre-season 2011, I would probably have taken Kidd-Gilchrist over UF's situation at SF. In pre-season 2010, I would probably have taken Knight at PG over UF's situation at PG. In 2009, I probably would have taken Wall at PG and Patterson at PF over UF's situation at those positions. I probably would have liked UF over UK in each season and I would have been right half the time.
  8. tampajack1
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    No question that Kentucky's recruiting for 2013 ranks as one of the greatest ever. They will be fielding a roster that could be a good NBA roster (several years down the road). However, now is now. A healthy and complete Gator roster matches up real well. It is unpredictacle which team is better at each position. Harrison might be spectacular at the point, although Kentucky doesn't have much point guard depth. However, a combo of Wilbekin and Hill at the point might turn out to be stronger than Kentucky's point guard position. We can make a similar position-by-position analysis. What I feel real comfortable with is that the Gators will have a far superior defense if they have a complete and healthy squad. Harrison, Randle et al will not have played against the quality of defense that they will face against the Gators. Assuming a complete and healthy squad, I would make the Gators the favorite to win the national title. However, I would not be surprised if UK won it all. They have a lot of future NBA starters (and maybe all-stars) on their team.
  9. phideltdj
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    phideltdj Well-Known Member

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    You just never know...they could come together and be unbeatable or they could turn on each other and become a circus. The other main concern is keeping Harrison healthy...if he goes down there could be an issue.
  10. REM08
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    Good responses above. I want to be sure to clarify though, I'm not trying to argue that UK is far and away the no-brainer pick for the SEC this year. I'm simply contesting the notion that it makes no sense to pick Kentucky this year - just that an argument can be made to pick them. Thats all.

    Tampa, we're not too far off. I think it comes down to how much of UK player potential is realized this soon in their careers. I think this ends up being crucial for UK every year. Low floor but high ceiling.

    Phid - Agree and agree. Although I think the potential chemistry issues have been a little overblown. I definitely agree about depth behind Harrison. He's the guy who can't go down like Noel did.

    Also, Insti, a couple of thoughts:

    1 - We aren't going to agree on this years recruiting class, but now I see why. Like I said, if one thinks they are similar to last years group (or that the teams are similar), then I'd agree that they're being over hyped. I just dont' think the team will be similar. The area we disagree on most is UK's point guard situation this year vs last. Recent quotes have come out from Harrow that explain some of what he was "going through" last year as far as family issues are concerned. I believe that affected his productivity. Whether it did or not, IMO UK was effectively without a point guard last year. I think they'll have a very good one this year. That's a big difference if I'm right. You also forgot Dakari Johnson in your list. I think he'll be a good back up for WCS.

    2 - "Right half of the time"? I guess it depends how you measure success. I think winning the conference is a good measure, probably as good a measure as exists. The tournament is random and roads are rarely equal. The OOC schedules rarely line up also. However, many of you may disagree (and this opinion might make me even less popular!), I think Kentucky was the better team in 2011. Sure they didn't win the conference, and I agree that means something. But they did beat Florida 2 out of 3 times. The two wins were convincing ones, and the one loss was a Brandon Knight last second shot away from being another win. UK also won the tournament championship and then went on to lose in the final four by 1 point to the eventual champ (after knocking off the overall number 1 seed and a strong 2 seed). We may disagree, but I think UK had the stronger team (at least by the end of the year) in three out of the four years. I don't say this to, in any way, diminish how good Florida was that year - even though its hard for me to make my case without it seeming so.

    Maybe I have a tendency to overestimate UK players or success going into a season, but I think you probably have the tendency to underestimate these things when it comes to UK. Probably just makes us fans.
  11. InstiGATOR1
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    InstiGATOR1 Well-Known Member

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    I would think that picking the winner of the SEC is THE measure of success WHEN YOU ARE PICKING THE WINNER OF THE SEC IN THE PRESEASON. You could argue regular season v. SEC tourney, but most would opt for regular season as the conference has.
  12. GatorLurker
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    I think that UK is the favorite with a mix of incredible freshman talent and a few players that are really good with Div 1 experience. That team is LOADED.

    I also think that UF is not far behind and UF could best them with a little luck. It could be by either good luck for UF or bad luck for UK.
  13. oneatatime
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    oneatatime Well-Known Member

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    The difference between this year's and last year's Kentucky teams are the guys returning. Perhaps they think it has some similarity to the team from 2 years ago.

    That said, our veterans are much stronger than Kentucky's and our additions are largely upper classmen that have been around major college basketball a few times.

    Come March, if everyone is healthy and we can add Walker in December, I think we will be the class of the SEC and a threat to win it all
  14. BEH
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    So transfers are better than five star all americans?
  15. gatorchamps0607
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    Kentucky may win the league but they aren't winning it all. Too many new people, too many egos.
  16. Osiris_DPM
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    Finney-Smith was a 5-star All American that was an ACC All Freshman in his one year at VT, playing out of position at the 4. He's been playing in our system for an entire year now. I've seen him play with the team and you will see how good he is.

    At USC, Harris was second in the SEC in blocked shots behind only Anthony Davis.

    So yes, I'd say our transfers, with their college experience, success at this level, and time in our system, compares quite favorably to freshman rated solely on high school accolades at this point, and who have zero college experience, zero experience playing together, and zero experience in the system. We've seen countless examples of HS All Americans that fail to live up to expectations as freshmen and need more experience to reach their potential (if they ever do).
  17. gatorchamps0607
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    gatorchamps0607 Always Rasta Premium Member

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    How hard is it to run Cal's system though?

    "Heres the ball, go make some shots"
  18. Osiris_DPM
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    Lol. That didn't work out so well last year.
  19. Dumachum
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    Dumachum New Member

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    Just need a good pair of shoes. Or maybe I am just thinking about the "bag runner".
  20. REM08
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    Sure, but haven't we also seen examples of freshmen playing at very high levels, especially by March? Doesn't it just depend on how these "highly rated freshmen" turn out this year?

    Seems to me every Kentucky fan assumes every UK freshmen will pretty much contribute like Anthony Davis did and fans of other teams assume they'll be like Daniel Orton or I guess we could even say like Alex Poythress last year. Impact freshmen certainly aren't a given, but even with more data, impact transfers aren't givens either and rarely do you see one perform like some of the top freshmen do every year recently.

    Like I said before, for UK, these freshmen mean a lower floor (than Florida by comparison with many more known commodities), but a higher ceiling (how much of it is realized is obviously to be seen).

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